Thailand stock market

[PigDogg]

(Monkey @ Nov. 20 2007,19:25) what do you guys expect the Thai markets (especially currency) to do if the USD keeps sliding, and what effects could  be expected if/when PRC (China) dumps their USD reserves in favour of something else?

I like emerging market currencies. I see them appreciating vs the dollar.

I also think bonds guaranteed by governments such as Turkey are much safer than bundled USA or UK mortgages.

My favorite play these days is EDD (think u must be to buy it). Not only does it hold the sovereign non-dollar denominated debt of developing countries which is my favorite asset class, but this closed end fund is selling at a 12% discount to net asset value.

EDD should be held in a non-taxable account such as an IRA since it has big distributions that are taxed as ordinary income.

EDD

[jaymee]

I'm probably alot less favorable towards Thailand among the other asian emerging market opportunities due to its politcal risks - but might be worth a tactical opportunity due to its cheap valuations right now - nothing more than a gamble.

I'm not so sure how to interpret a Thaksin related party coming back into power right now but if we remember the SET has been in a steady decline since the Financial crisis and after Thaksin took to power - it actually bottomed out after he left for England. Fundamentally there seems to be alot in question as well about the direction of the Thai economy.

USD wise the general direction seems to be a downtrend really whatever people say since the rate cuts and liquidity injections really speaks for itself though. The FED might say otherwise from its CPI's and PPI's or w/e data but I really don't buy it... Moreover decoupling from China seems incrementally probable. The sharp decline hasn't really happened (I think Jim Rogers said that) but its been really a slow death. The best thing really is to hold a diversified currency portfolio - spread among the majors.

For those concerned about the liquidity issues from the SET ETFs (I presume those are the close ended products some of you guys have got) You'd probably want to get exposure from Thai equities via mutual fund houses such as Fidelity, Aberdeen etc which are available outside Thailand.

If u're not from USA and buy mutual funds in Singapore, investible gains are tax free. We kinda encourage foreign money here

[Snick]

Investing in Thailand right now would be bottom fishing, but thats a good way to make money.
In general I think a PPP victory with Thaksin pulling the strings might be good for the economy, especially since they will not have a huge majority in the lower house, and the upper house will still be controlled by Anti-Thaksin forces ( Upper house is appointed and has veto power )

The huge wild card is the currency aspect which could go either way. Some of the questions are: will The currency controls be lifted ?, will the Thai government intervene to buy dollars, will local interest rates go down, and will the government go on a spending binge (new subways, highways, etc....)

I might risk a few dollars in a Thai fund, but I still like S. Korea a hell of a lot better. I might also look into a VietNam fund.

[jaymee]

(Snick @ Dec. 30 2007,02:42) Investing in Thailand right now would be bottom fishing, but thats a good way to make money.
In general I think a PPP victory with Thaksin pulling the strings might be good for the economy, especially since they will not have a huge majority in the lower house, and the upper house will still be controlled by Anti-Thaksin forces ( Upper house is appointed and has veto power )

The huge wild card is the currency aspect which could go either way. Some of the questions are: will The currency controls be lifted ?, will the Thai government intervene to buy dollars, will local interest rates go down, and will the government go on a spending binge (new subways, highways, etc....)

I might risk a few dollars in a Thai fund, but I still like S. Korea a hell of a lot better. I might also look into a VietNam fund.

Yes I am too bullish on S.Korea. Over a 10 year horizon though - also validated by buffet.

Vietnam I'm not so sure, so far it hasn't done so well - the funds available here in Singapore are only for accredited investors.

[PigDogg]

USA stock market opens in 8 hours and signs point to it being the day of reckoning.

Black Tuesday '08 could be the worst slide since October '87.

[Snick]

BLOOD BLOOD BLOOD

[thaibound]

[Snick]

You crying now , wait 7 hours !!!

[thaibound]

(Snick @ Jan. 22 2008,01:13) You crying now , wait 7 hours !!!

just like the market, i'm already factoring in the news. i expect a drop of an additional 15% over the next few months. maybe half of that tomorrow alone. that'll total the 25% drop which will allow university professors to call this a recession. the market will then bottom and the world will probably survive -- assuming bush and cheney vacate the presidential residences as promised.
meanwhile, what will the ttf do?
today's market news has me fearing the bush/cheney cabal has screwed the *entire* world.

[Snick]

It could be worse, a giant monster could attack Manhattan, destroy your going away party eat all your friends -- and when its all over you still don't know that the fuck it was about. But short of that 'we is all fucked'.

[Snick]

Just to make life interesting
I bought some shares of a Thai ETF

Ticker: TF @ $10.00

We can return here in a few weeks and applaud my brilliance or ridicule my ignorance.
Of course if the stock stays flat, its no fun at all

[PigDogg]

At noontime here in Gotham City things are not that bad.  

The 75 basis point cut by the Fed helped.

Or maybe it was Plaxico Burress ringing the opening bell?

At one point today the Snickster was up 4.5% on his TF play.  But given equal discounts, I prefer TTF to TF because of the lower expense ratio.  The discounts of these funds varies quite a bit though so I think the good play varies day to day.

[thaibound]

(PigDogg @ Jan. 22 2008,11:02) At noontime here in Gotham City things are not that bad.  

The 75 basis point cut by the Fed helped.

Or maybe it was Plaxico Burress ringing the opening bell?

At one point today the Snickster was up 4.5% on his TF play.  But given equal discounts, I prefer TTF to TF because of the lower expense ratio.  The discounts of these funds varies quite a bit though so I think the good play varies day to day.

ttf is down to 10.30 now -- i got in at 12.2 -- ...so would you buy more...or wait it out?

[Snick]

I bought TF over TTF for one reason, it was cheaper !

TF was down around 8% when I bought, TTF around 5%

TF finished the day at 10.75

Of course, this is a drop in the bucket compared to what I have lost in the last 4 weeks...but I'll take any victory I can find.

[PigDogg]

7.8% in one day; you're the man Snick!

Will pay for quite a few BJ's on Soi 6.

I like closed end funds selling at a deep discount with a reasonable expense ratio paying out hefty distributions.
The distributions are a way of cashing out what u bought at a discount. But funds paying out big distributions should always be in a non-taxable account.

At today's prices I think FAX is a good deal. It's all sovereign debt. I think Indonesian government debt is safer than USA or UK mortgages. The risk premium is out of whack with reality. But this particular fund happens to be 50% debt.

FAX