Thailand stock market

[waldo]

I have been following the market for awhile now and have more than 10 years experience in Emerging Markets and think we may be ready for a major run here.

Is anyone else on this forum investing?

[Snick]

Great idea.

With the constitutional referendum a few months away and likely to fail, December elections in doubt, a weakening economy, shrinking FDI, currency controls and the latest announcement that the government is declaring all the telecom contracts illegal how can the market do anything but go up !

[PigDogg]

I'd like to find a good way to invest in        

As an    my choices are two closed end funds, TF and TTF, and they're both selling at a premium to net asset value.  That's a deal braker with me.

I do have a small position in GAADX which is about 15% Thailand, the biggest percentage of any American open ended mutual fund.

Maybe there's some ADRs???  I was thinking Bumrungard might be a good investment but I'm pretty sure it's not available as an ADR.

[Snick]

I've never found a good vehicle, as you said TTF is at a premium and very thinly traded. Haven't found a mutual fund I like either.

These days I have no interest in the Thai market, I'd be more likely to short it than go long.

I'm probably going to up my Japan position, EWJ, has been good for me. And I expect the Yen to appreciate at some point.

sometimes "Cheap is Cheap" there is a reason P/E is low in Thailand, everything is a mess !!!

[PigDogg]

You're right Snick, when P/E ratios are cheap, there's a reason.

Here's an article written last autumn by the folks at Matthews, a fund family that specializes in Asia.


Matthews Commentary Oct 06

[Snick]

Thanks. I never saw that article, and I am on their mailing list and have some of their funds.

Funny part is that article is 6 months old, the current attitude is disgust with the post-coup government, They are just seen as old and slow. Had lunch with a very professional Thai friend yesterday when I asked about politics he said he was just bored of the whole thing. Its a wierd time here in Thailand, next 6 months will be "interesting"

[waldo]

I am a contrarian at heart and think that the best values are found when everyone is negative and given up. That makes Thailand attractive to me. It is going to be a rocky next six months but I would rather be in than miss the boat. Since the coup, the market has had a nice steady run.

I liken it to being at a conference and rather than fight to see the crowded presentations I go to the ones where the room is empty. Those guys always are ahead of the pack and two or three years their room is packed.

Funny thing, outside of China, Thailand has been one of the best Asian markets this year.

I opened a trading account with Seamico and they let me purchase NVDR's online. Helpful staff as well. Probably shocked that an American wants to open a trading account.

[Snick]

Good Luck -- I will wait to see what happens this fall

[SamplerDoc]

Waldo,
There are a few threads on this topic, pertaining to Investments and exchange rates.
Try the Search tool to find them and they should help out too.
Good Luck

And Remember buy high and sell even higher

[moe666]

I think good idea Snick, I have a feeling the market in the states is going to take a dump soon and that will have far reaching ramafications on other markets especially a weak one like Thailands. Wait till it dumps then get in really low.

[Snick]

Actually I am pretty positive on a global basis, just negative on Thailand.

There are two factors driving the global boom that I consider important.

1) Private equity is taking lots of companies private, and forcing mergers. That will drive up prices across the board for a long time.
2) For the first time in 20 years the big three markets, USA, Europe and Japan are all (relatively) strong. Usually one or two are weak while the others are strong (and Japan has been weak for 15 years). Thats a good omen.

Thailand is a special case, the politics is a mess, local confidence is very low, and the government keeps on passing more and more anti-investment laws ( currency controls, revised foreign biz act, void telecom contracts and breaking patents on drugs [1] ). Add all of those up and as an investor I will put my money in China, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc...

[1] I actually agree with the Thais (and Brazilians) on using the WTO to break the patents on the anti-AIDS drugs, But it will have a negative investment effect.

[PigDogg]

(waldo @ May 22 2007,22:05) I opened a trading account with Seamico and they let me purchase NVDR's online.    Helpful staff as well.  Probably shocked that an American wants to open a trading account.

Interesting.

The commsions seem reasonable but my concerns:

Bid-Ask spread
Order execution
Wire Transfer charges
Exchange rate spreads and fees
Cash account pays only 2% interest
Will complicate my taxes

Let us know how your trading turns out Waldo.
Which stocks do yoy like?
How much are the wire transfer fees?

Good luck!!!!

[waldo]

I pay about $30 to wire cash over to my broker which is not bad. I have paid more to wire funds internationally.

The commission rate is pretty good at 15 bp and I can see the volume behind the spreads through Seamico so it makes the market more transparent for me than the US. Much better than the US where I can only enter the order. Here I can see how many shares are behind the price. I used to trade and that was always important because you know how strong the bids and asks were.

My orders are entered online like the US. I just sit up and wait for execution.

If you keep good records then taxes are not a problem. I have all my trades for the past 5 years in an Excel spreadsheet.

Right now I hold BBL, KSL, PS, KGI, and KEST. I am probably going to sell PS tonight and move the money over to KGI and KEST.

One thing I noticed about the market and it is the same for all Emerging Markets is that the traders are fascinated with Stochastics and Technical Analysis. Not much on the fundamental side but weak accoutning laws will do that. I look for stocks making a base with low institutional ownership and or hold signals from the local brokers. A lot of times, the brokerages will see a stock in a base pattern and then pump it up 20% on rumors. I am more of a contrarian and look for securities that people do not like and have written off. It is difficult now because there is so much money flowing around the world into different stocks and securities.

People are so bearish on Thailand which is why I like it. I like the brokerage sector because if everyone hates it and if the locals in Bangkok like the next government they will start investing again which means more money to local brokerages. Locals will not be trading with the big investment banks. You could get a situation like Korea and China where the market just starts going up.

In addition, Thailand and Taiwan have historically been the last stock markets to rise in Asia. They usually lag behind everyone until the end.

[PigDogg]

May Asia Brief

from Guinness Atkinson

[PigDogg]

PTT

These guys like PTT.