Thailand stock market

[Groundhog]

(Snick @ May 23 2007,09:43) With the constitutional referendum a few months away and likely to fail, December elections in doubt, a weakening economy, shrinking FDI, currency controls and the latest announcement that the government is declaring all the telecom contracts illegal how can the market do anything but go up !

Snick ... clearly you trade on fundamentals, not technicals   ... not much fun, but a lot safer  

I'm afraid I have to agree; the Thai economy is the worst performing in SE Asia, and with the political uncertainty, nobody is bringing money into Thialand, so expect the continuing liquidity crunch ...

... hear that sucking sound ...

That's China hoovering up all of the Asian money ... Shanghai 'A' shares is where you want to put your money (of course it's a bubble, but they don't know that   )

... BTW, anyone following the wrangling over the constitutional referendum ... the military has written every draft, allowing elections, but keeping all the control themselves.  Only when there are protests do they throw away any of their controls ... the most recent one was a 'crisis council' packed with military cronies that could basically throw out any elected official they didn't like.   It's a real circus.   Pardon me if I keep my money out of Thailand these days

... except of course money for my ongoing charity work with disadvantaged ladyboys ... you know the ones that can't afford to go up another boob size  

[moe666]

Well with over 4 billion dollars brought into Thailand since the first of the year and invested into the stock market how long will the run up last before the money is pulled out.

[dummy_plug]

That's just bum's logic - the market has gone up for the past few months, so it must come down. Not picking you, but the general logic that I typically hear from ill-advised personal investors. I think Snick is right, there are so many complex factors that affect the markets, but the one thing that I would observe is that most of the money fueling the boom is domestic. In the past it was usually foreign investors bidding up the market, but the proportion of capital has flipped to be predominantly internal - meaning the Thais are putting money into their own companies while many funds have shyed away preferring to invest in neighboring countries such as Cambodia and Viet Nam. If I had my guess, I would say that the Thai market will muddle around with uncertainty soon and that the fundamentals underlying their economy are weaker than other areas of the globe.

[Snick]

The Thai market is clear as mud, and while the outlook does look a little better
( elections will happen, pessimism is disipating, and gov't finally realize they need to manage economy/Baht )
I still consider it too risky -- one bomb in Bangkok, a bank collapse, etc.. and you could see another 15% drop

I got my money is S. Korea and damn happy about it, better return than Thailand and a 1000x safer

[moe666]

DP, I'm sure there is some money from domestic going in but every story I come across implys that the run up is also coming from a lot of outside money. That is one reason for the baht increasing in value, story this morning the business community would like the baht to be stablized around 35.5 to the dollar.

[PigDogg]

July Asia Brief

Includes P/E ratios for all Asian markets.

 is by far the lowest.

[lbcrazy]

(Snick @ Jul. 21 2007,14:11) The Thai market is clear as mud, and while the outlook does look a little better
( elections will happen, pessimism is disipating, and gov't finally realize they need to manage economy/Baht )
I still consider it too risky -- one bomb in Bangkok, a bank collapse, etc.. and you could see another 15% drop

I got my money is S. Korea and damn happy about it, better return than Thailand and a 1000x safer

If you're in for the longterm (10+ years) then SE Asia is still the place to park your money. My money is invested in various different SE Asian + Japanese stocks around the region plus I own property in Sing and mutliple condos in Thailand due to a natural urge to retire there in the future. If you're looking for a quick buck then I'd say don't invest as its too choppy right now and doesn't warrant the bid-offer spread, however if you're prepared to live in this region ultimately then get involved in the next few years before you are left behind.

[katoeylover]

I would have thought there were much better areas to invest in Asia than Thailand, such as China, Singapore and vietnam.

[Groundhog]

(PigDogg @ Jul. 29 2007,01:44) July Asia Brief

Includes P/E ratios for all Asian markets.

 is by far the lowest.

Good news / Bad news ... right?

Good news: Stocks are undervalued

Bad news: That's because nobody trusts the reported earnings


... what did you say about transparency?

[PigDogg]

August Asia Brief

[thaibound]

(PigDogg @ Aug. 09 2007,22:06) August Asia Brief

thnx PD,
interesting read
(at least the parts of it this layman's mind can follow!)
he nailed the subprime debacle which is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. i hope he's right it won't become global.
at least thailand would seem immune to it -- having little money to lend and thus no mortgage funds to go belly up -- in which case real estate there might do quite well....
but then again, i don't know shit.

[PigDogg]

(thaibound @ Aug. 10 2007,15:24) but then again, i don't know shit.

Well, I don't know shit either!

But it seems to me that emerging markets government debt should be safer than than a pool of bundled USA or UK mortgages.

[Snick]

The problem isn't Thailand's direct exposure to subprime, its the liquidation domino effect.

If company/fund A is losing money due to subprime loses, they may need to sell something, and sell it fast, and that causes other assetts to go down ( its happening right now in Oil/Gas futures, hedge funds are selling profitable positions to make up for subprime loses). Since the Thai market has been profitable for investors this year its a good place to sell and take some profits.

This is a GOOD opportunity for other investors, and for the first time in years I am looking at buying into the TF or TTF Thailand tracking funds ( they are 25% off the peak ).

[PigDogg]

(Snick @ Aug. 10 2007,23:44) and for the first time in years I am looking at buying into the TF or TTF Thailand tracking funds ( they are 25% off the peak ).

I thought we both didn't like the idea of buying a closed end fund at a premium to NAV? I guess that's why it's the first time in years you're even considering it.

New ETFs are coming onto the market everyday. If a Thai ETF was started, I think the TF and TTF premiums would quickly disappear.

[Snick]

I'm considering it since the premium is narrowing, TF if off 25% while Thai market is off less that 20% ( and if you factor in currency effects the loss to TF is even greater ).

I wish there would be a simple Thai ETF that tracked the SETI index, but until their is TF and TTF are the only choices.