The RED SHIRT Crisis in Bangkok!

[Bumpa STIKKA]

The stupid and dangerous Songkran poses far more danger than the Red Shirts.

[f0xxee]

Speaking of Stupid Sonkran,
Mrs F and I are driving from HH to Udon T starting at 1800 hours tonight. Yesterday it took 4 HOURS to get from BKK to Saraburi: a distance of 70 kilometers.
So we are about to do the inordinately stupid in order to be back in Baan-nok with the family for Songkran in the morning.
Should be a whiz!

[PigDogg]

The RedShirts kidnapped the CAT Telecom CEO this afternoon.

[katoeylover]

Just passed through the airport and drove into town. 30 minutes to Sukhumvit.

No sign of anything at the moment.

As to what people in the north think, they all know what is happening and many want to join the cause.

Just spent 2 days up there and they are (mostly) all behind the reds and the killing will just cause more mayhem.

[jadeite]

Looks like it could all be over now. Democrats have been found guilty of election fraud. This is treated extremely seriously in Thailand and means their party will be abolished and their execs including reigning prime minister Abhisit barred from elections. Not that it matters as the democrats will lose the election (again) and the reds will win. Abhisit only came to power through some peculiar maneuvering stemming from red shirt prime minister Samak getting offed for appearing on a TV cooking show. Again shows how stern the election laws are.

I feel sorry for Abhisit. Seems like a nice guy doing his job, but I fear he will get the full brunt of the blame for the bloody protests.

I must say the ruling timing is conspicuously convenient, right on the eve of songkran.

[guydesavoy]

So far that news doesn't appear to have reached the BBC  

Nor has the information that many of these red shirts are trucked in on the promise of 1,000 baht per day. Although given the apparent dedication to the cause of some of them I wonder if their interest is strictly pecuniary.

To bring it back to the LB level, if you will, it was noted by manarak that many of them were anti red. Perhaps this is a reflection on the fear of a downturn in business ? Many I know are quite in favour of Thaksin (at least in theory). Not surprising since most of them come from the provinces..

[Naang Faa]

(jadeite @ Apr. 12 2010,13:30) Looks like it could all be over now.

I wish i had the same faith.

All i can see happening is the Yellowshirts coming out in force sooner
rather than later,if the redshirts are still in the city at that time,you can
only see things getting 100x worse..


Did abhisit hasten this ruling in order to save face?"


Another coup anyone?

                                                                                                    x

[EyeMahk]

(jadeite @ Apr. 12 2010,19:30) Democrats have been found guilty of election fraud. This is treated extremely seriously in Thailand

I just had to laugh when I read this.

It's treated so seriously that everyone running for office here in Thailand engages in it on a regular basis.

[EyeMahk]

FYI .....

I've taken an informal poll of the different GGs and LBs that I have had sex with in the last five days.  Of the seven of them:

5 supported red-shirts (2 Chang Mai, 2 Buriram and 1 Kalasin)
1 supported yellow shirts (she was from Nakhon Phanom)
1 was from Nakhon Si Thammarat and she couldn't give a shit!!

The best screw was the GG from Nakhon Si Thammarat GG, followed very closely by the Nakhon Phanom LB (heavenly blow-job!).  Two of the red-shirt supporters were useless in the sack, so perhaps those in search of good sex should avoid red-shirt supporters.  Again, my poll is far from scientific, and my sample size certainly isn't large enough to make a certain recommendation.  I'll work on that tonight

[guydesavoy]

(EyeMahk @ Apr. 12 2010,21:22)  Again, my poll is far from scientific, and my sample size certainly isn't large enough to make a certain recommendation.  I'll work on that tonight

I'll take that as read...or red ?

Yes, more research please

[Snick]

If I had to make a random guess, I would say this is the beginning of the end.
The EC ruling is a complete joke, so the Democrats can save face and say the gov't dissolved due to a court ruling not pressure from the reds.
Interestingly this EC decision is based on actions in 2005, and Ahbisit will probably not be barred from politics, since he was not an executive at that point.
There will not be a coup, the army doesn't have the stomach for it, and the troops wouldn't support it.

My guess/hope is there will be a new election, 2nd tier parties will do very well. Reds will have the largest block, but not a majority, and will lead a weak coalition. New Democrats will be minority.

I doubt the Yellows can mobilize anyone NOW, but maybe this time next year.

[Snick]

ps. If I'm wrong, its just a guess. If I am right I'm a fuking Genius.

[deepthroat]

isn't that supposed to be a "fookin' Genius"?

If so, I already think you are, regardless of your prognostication skills.

[pacman]

(Snick @ Apr. 13 2010,00:29) If I had to make a random guess, I would say this is the beginning of the end.

The end? I thought you were suggesting this was the end of peace & the start of a civil war but reading your post you say this is the end of the uprising & hopefully, the start of elections.

I do hope you are right but if not, I don't think it matters if the troops have the stomach for a fight or not, they will do what their commanders tell them to do.

But they may not attack their fellow citizens with the zeal expected. They can do enough to earn their wages but cause as little harm as possible.

But that could change & that's where this debate gets scary.

Do the rent-a-crowd of rioters realise they are just pawns in Thaksin's bid to get his hands on the public purse? Will new elections bring real change for the better? And if neither side get what they want, how long before they go through all this again?

[Snick]

The troops will not fight, there have been multiple reports of this.
The Reds are not a rent-a-mob, some are paid especially the 'security' types. But the majority are here because they want to be.
If we get lucky new elections will see a very weak coalition gov't and both sides will be able to live with that.

The scary question is, who were the snipers on Saturday night ? Someone killed 8+ reds with a sniper rifle, I doubt it was the 'regular' military.