The RED SHIRT Crisis in Bangkok!

[s69]

azza33 make it worth while with a lot of pics of the country side PLEASE!............. (since ur there).

[reflections]

hey guys all kidding aside I need advice
should I cancel my trip into BKK on April 20 and out the 27 or keep it? I can go to Pattaya straight instead of to BKK for a couple of days but does it matter? Am I nuts to keep my plans?

[Steff]

We are all anxious about this. However there is no way anyone, either on the ground in Thailand or elsewhere can predict what will transpire eventually. I believe the next 7 days will indicate if Thailand is headed for a full front, tits to the wall stare at the gates of hell or calmer heads and reason will emerge and prevail. Unfortunately you probably have a 7 day advance cancellation clause prior to your departure on the 20th. This means you need to decide by the 13th. Tough one. If I were you I would evaluate on the 12th and follow your gut.

[Karl]

What's the current situation in Pattaya? Have there been any reported problems at the airport?

Thanks for any insight!

Karl

[rxpharm]

Pattaya is quiet as reported by board members. There are NO reported problems at the airport.

[deepthroat]

If it were me, I'd probably go for it as long as the airport isn't closed. Sounds like so far, you're safe as long as you're not in the midst of a pitched battle on the streets.

Of course that could change, but the first indicator would be the closing of airport or diversion of flights. If that happens, all bets are off. Until then, I'd probably stick with my plan

[manarak]

(reflections @ Apr. 12 2010,03:45) hey guys all kidding aside I need advice
should I cancel my trip into BKK on April 20 and out the 27 or keep it? I can go to Pattaya straight instead of to BKK for a couple of days but does it matter? Am I nuts to keep my plans?

DT is right.

If the riots continue, your biggest risk is to be unable to leave Thailand on schedule.
The risk for your life/health is not higher than normal if you don't go near the protest sites and if you use condoms.
Heading directly to Pattaya is the best you can do, since I heard the reds sometimes setup road blocks on Sukhumvit. Not dangerous, but annoying if you can't move around in Bkk, since the Skytrain has also been shut down 2 days ago.
There is also a way that fighting somehow carries over to Sukhumvit, who knows, the red's central world camp is not far away.

There is always a chance that the reds suddenly decide to blockade the airport, so in this case you would have to wait until an alternate flight home is setup by your airline in U-Tapao or you might have to fork out about 1500 USD to catch a "VIP bus" to Cambodia and fly home from there on a new ticket (I did that in 2008).

If it doesn't matter that you are late for a couple of days for your flight home, just enjoy the hotel stay at the expense of the thai government or ot the airline (you are entitled to payments from both).

Oh, and avoid taking up that topic with thais. They will either only be embarrassed and angry that the reds make them lose face in your eyes. Or worse, you will have a fervent red shirt in front of you, and you will possibly be drawn into arguments. More LBs than you would think are against the reds.
And if asked, just say you are very sad and hope for a peaceful solution...

[azza33]

(gizmo @ Apr. 11 2010,20:11) Let's just hope it does'nt come to that!
I'm arriving on the 17th, but going straight
to Pattaya!

That's my intention as well.

However if the shit hits the fan I've got options at least as I transit through kl.

[azza33]

(s69 @ Apr. 12 2010,03:15)  azza33  make it worth while with a lot of pics of the country side PLEASE!............. (since ur there).  

I'll do my best - I just got a new cam so I intend to get my moneys worth

[rxpharm]

This is a video clip of a grenade attack against the military near Democracy Monument at Khok Wua intersection. There were more grenade attacks which resulted in the military firing back. The Red Shirts claim it wasn't them, and rogue general Khattiya who supports Thaksin, says it was "Ronin warriors" whose actions killed the commanding general at the scene.

[deepthroat]

As a neophyte when it comes to Thai civil unrest and politics I don't really know what to make of this, and neither do most of the foreign press. How serious is this?

[Snick]

Serious.

And IMHO Saturday was just the start.

The reports are still very chaotic
-Did the Government use live rounds. There is evidence they did in Khao Sarn
-Did the Reds use weapons, it looks like some were well armed. Govt claims Reds had grenades and tear gas of a different type from army
-Why was the operation such a cluster fuck. I passed the army units at Ploenchit. There were not enough troops to effectively control the situation. Its much safer to have MORE troops, if you can appear to overwhelm the other side they will not resist. Evenly matched battles are the bloodiest.
-Who is leading the Red Shirts ?, if its Thaksin he will fight until the last of the red shirts is dead.
-Who is leading the gov't ? Abhisit ?, Generals ?, Prem ? ... no one ?

Given the (lack of) information, I can't see any resolution. The Reds refuse to negotiate, the Gov't appears to be willing to bend, and agree to early elections, but not to break and dissolve.
If the Reds are driven from Bangkok how will they respond ?, take over Chiang Mai and other Northern Cities ?

Keep in Mind there are different Red factions with different agendas.
Red Siam is communist ; there is also a faction espousing armed revolution.

Hopefully the Thai way of compromise will win out, but its hard to see that happening right now.

[pacman]

When people are being shot you have to say it is serious.

I wonder how long the farmers being paid to wear a red shirt are prepared to hang around with the chance of being shot?

And is the monarch well enough to call the leaders in & resolve this as he has done with previous uprisings?

By the sounds of the disarray with the military, it appears that Thaksin's influence may include some parts of the army. If the troops are left to decide who they support, this will get ugly fast.

All eyes will turn to a certain hospital ward for the peacemaker to arise. Let's pray that he is up to it.

[f0xxee]

(pacman @ Apr. 12 2010,09:33) When people are being shot you have to say it is serious.

I wonder how long the farmers being paid to wear a red shirt are prepared to hang around with the chance of being shot?

And is the monarch well enough to call the leaders in & resolve this as he has done with previous uprisings?

By the sounds of the disarray with the military, it appears that Thaksin's influence may include some parts of the army. If the troops are left to decide who they support, this will get ugly fast.

All eyes will turn to a certain hospital ward for the peacemaker to arise. Let's pray that he is up to it.

Hi Paccie,

Actually if there was ever a time for the Son of the Peacemaker to step up to the plate and show he is worthy of his birthright this is it.
This would be the best posible outcome for all concerned as it would most likely bring some peace and also resolve issues of sucession that have been hanging heavy for the last few years.
My other thoughts on this issue I have recorded in Manaraks thread regarding whether someone should move to LOS.

[Snick]

Never going to happen, but yea this is the time