The RED SHIRT Crisis in Bangkok!

[Buddy]

I think Pattaya is in Chonburi province, within the state of emergency zone. Wonder what the impact is there of the state of emergency?

[manarak]

I don't know because I'm thousands of miles away, but I expect the state of emergency to have exactly zero impact on Patts.
Except for the tourists staying away and the bored bargirls of course.


I pray that the army will succeed in clearing Thaksin's hired mob of criminals without hurting too much innocents in the process.

Just how many red shirts remain there?
What's the estimation of their numbers?

[deepthroat]

I'm confident that we'd have heard from Snick, PigDog or Kahuna if things were spiraling into chaos in Pattaya.

I hope the government and military plan works. Appears the idea is to "starve out" the red shirts in BKK by keeping supplies from flowing in, while sniping at the black pajama brigade and slowly killing any other armed resisters. Hopefully the majority of the protesters will become disillusioned when there's no more food and water, and the armed resistance will turn out to be a minority that are only interested in anarchy, not political reform. Once they've been killed or arrested, is there a chance that the rest of the revolt will lose the will to continue? Or is this the beginning of years of civil conflict?

Hopefully by cutting off the head and then arresting/killing the more violent element, it can be turned back somehow.

[deepthroat]

Thai Government Takes Harder Stance as Clashes Continue

New York Times - Asia Pacific
By THOMAS FULLER and SETH MYDANS
Published: May 15, 2010

BANGKOK €” The Thai government struck a combative tone on Saturday, saying it would continue its efforts to cut off antigovernment protesters from the rest of the city despite a rising death toll and determined resistance from the demonstrators.

Throughout the day and into the night, gunfire and explosions shook neighborhoods in central Bangkok that ring the one-mile area where the protesters have camped for weeks in an attempt to bring down the government. The government reported that 8 people were killed Saturday, bringing the death toll from three days of clashes to 24, with 172 people injured.

With both the government and at least some protesters appearing to take a harder stance, fears were rising that the violence could spill out to other areas of the city.

Already on Saturday, many streets near the center of the capital were deserted and some residents woke to find their neighborhoods within the battle zone. The government also turned off street lights in the affected area, leaving some neighborhoods in near total darkness.

"The government cannot turn back," Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, said in a nationally televised address on Saturday night.

"Ending the rally is the only way to prevent calamity."

Shortly before he spoke, leaders of the country's powerful military appeared on television in what may have been a deliberate show of unity for an army notorious for its divisions and intrigue.

Unlike last month, when the government stood down after a failed crackdown that left 25 people dead, the military said losses were unavoidable, and began calling in reinforcements, adding to the thousands of troops already here.

There were many reports on the streets that snipers were firing at protesters. Some of the protesters were setting barricades of tires on fire, sending up tall plumes of smoke apparently in an effort to keep out troops, who have been setting up a cordon around the protest area.

The violence in recent days led the United States government to offer a voluntary evacuation of nonessential personnel in its embassy in Bangkok and to advise against all travel to the Thai capital, a revision from its previous stance of advising against nonessential travel.

Despite the worries that violence would escalate, the government has powerful reasons to show restraint. Officials have held back for weeks for fear of causing a bloodbath €” further tarnishing Thailand's reputation as a business and tourist-friendly country €” or of inciting unrest in other parts of the country sympathetic to the protesters.

Rather than forcing a showdown, the military might instead choose to continue to try to divide the demonstrators, hoping that more moderate members will leave the area as they run out of food and water. Over the last several days, the military has set up checkpoints on roads leading to the protesters' encampment, keeping supporters with new supplies out and checking the identity of anyone trying to enter the area.

Sudsanguan Suthisorn, an associate professor of criminology at Thammasat University and a member of the protest movement, said that only limited supplies of food and water remained in the cordoned-off area and that with municipal power cut off, fuel was running low for generators.

The protesters, who began their demonstration here two months ago, have demanded the resignation of the government and new elections. But the movement, which is made up of farmers and the urban poor, many of them supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister deposed in a 2006 military coup, has fractured and their ultimate demands are now not clear.

In his television appearance on Saturday, Mr. Abhisit tried to explain the government's tougher stance, saying that he feared that armed groups, which he said were siding with the demonstrators, could overthrow the government.

"We cannot let the country remain in this condition, where people do not respect the law," he said.

Lt. Gen. Dowpong Rattanasuwan, the deputy chief of the army, said Saturday that "forces with weapons are hiding among the protesters" and that soldiers had been authorized to use their weapons in self-defense.

Inside the protesters' barricaded encampment the crowds were thinner and more subdued than they had been before the clashes began Thursday. Under rows of tents and in a plaza in front of a sound stage, many sleeping mats and plastic chairs stood empty, and protest leaders did not offer their accustomed rousing speeches from the stage.

At a small news conference, one of the leaders, Nattawut Saikua, asserted that it was no longer possible to control some of the protesters, saying they had been infuriated by military moves against them.

Among the casualties of three days of clashes was an emergency medical technician who was riding a motorcycle when he was fatally wounded and four journalists, all of whom were wounded but survived.

Because of the fear of snipers, a photographer said, two dead or wounded victims lay for a long period in a street unattended. The military was not allowing ambulances to pass a roadblock, the photographer said, which meant that rescue workers had to run at a crouch with stretchers to carry out the victims.

In one neighborhood, the military posted a banner declaring a "Live firing zone." A Thai television station reported that the banner was taken down late in the afternoon on Saturday.

The violence occurring Saturday is likely to harden divisions between the country's poor majority, which forms the base of the red-shirt protests, and its elite establishment, which feels threatened and discomfited by the long occupation of the city's upscale commercial center.

Underlying the protests is a rising awareness among the poor of their rights and a demand for a greater share in the country's wealth and political voice.

Mr. Thaksin, the prime minister deposed in 2006, remains abroad; he is wanted in Thailand on a conviction for corruption. He had mobilized the poor as a political base, and the demand for democracy that is often heard among them now reflects a sense that their vote was stolen from them when he was ousted.

[pacman]

(seamus @ May 15 2010,23:24) Well another Asian Country off the Pacci holiday list, or am I wrong ?

You once said to Me you wouldn't step foot in Indonesia again, well Pacci, Thailand again, or is LOS now off the list for now ?

& I am not making Light of this, or taking the piss, just in case it comes across like that !

I have to say If I had a flight booked for Monday, I'd be going ! Would I book one now, today for Monday........................In a word "NO" !

Thailand is a completely different situation to Indonesia. In LOS Australians are innocent bystanders while in Bali we are the enemy. Friends of mine who live there have been telling me this for years.

Just because Australian tourists aren't being hunted & shot in Bali is not because the militant Muslims wouldn't if they could.

Those in Indonesia who have sworn to fight the enemies of Islam are being kept in check by an ever vigilant campaign conducted by the Indonesian army with assistance from Australia.

Witness the constant presence of armed troops in Bali.

But the armed Thais are not looking for me so I will be back. But I also would hesitate about booking for next Monday, I will give the place a few weeks to settle down before I commit.

And one of the biggest concerns for me is travel insurance. I would hate to be shot in the crossfire & find my health insurance was invalid...      

[Snick]

(deepthroat @ May 16 2010,05:11) I'm confident that we'd have heard from Snick, PigDog or Kahuna if things were spiraling into chaos in Pattaya.

I've been slapped, punched in the arm, and have a bite mark on my shoulder.
All and all a normal weekend in Pattaya.

[f0xxee]

It looks as though Seh Daeng is going to pop his clogs in the next 24 hours. This will either serve as a rallying point (more RS are supposed to be coming down from Pathum Thani) (Although they will be blocked from entering BKK CBD... leading to another skirmish on Yothin Rd?) or it will dishearten the remaing protestors.

The death of the boy only 10 years old is dreadful and worse, was avoidable... who puts thier children in harms way FFs for political capital?

It appears the government is no longer in appeasment mode, and it was probably bad planning by the RS to shoot an army Colonel and two police in the last weeks: Turning tomatos and watermelons into foe.
All in all the tactics and stratgies of the RS have failed them and thier PR cause.

[f0xxee]

Regarding the average Somchai shooting himself in the foot by destroying tourism in Thailand...
My guess (and its a guess only) is that very few of the those at the Red shirt rally would be involved in tourism, mosty coming for poor rural backgrounds, where tourism doesn't really contribute much wealth. The thais I have met in BKK and surrounding regions where tourism even tangentially (working in road side stalls, selling BBQ chicken, cleaning shoes) ad baht to the family kitty are pissed at what is happening to the industry, and would love to bring back the halcyion dates of 2005.

[Snick]

I would guess that most of the redshirts have family members involved in the tourist business AND depend on money they send home.
I have heard from girls that they were asked to send money, so someone could go to Bangkok rally.

[kahuna]

Opinion » Opinion

Voranai Vanijaka
Position: Editor

Put an end to this rebellion
Published: 16/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
Bangkok Post

I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear: It's a rebellion, so put an end to it _ with swiftness, severity and certainty.

The military coup in 2006 wrongly overthrew the then democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. That was no democracy.

The coup council handed the power back to the people in 2007. The People Power Party (PPP) won the following election. That was democracy.

The PPP was banned by the Constitution Court for electoral irregularities and the parliament _ the democratically elected representatives of Thailand _ voted the Democrats into power. That was democracy.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) argue against the Democrat-led coalition government's legitimacy and protest for the government to step down and call a general election.

That was democracy.

And the UDD had won.

The goals of the UDD from the very start: They wanted a House dissolution. They will have one in September. They wanted a general election. They will have one on Nov 14. All within seven months and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's term actually ends in January 2012, a year and a half from now.

They should be dancing in the streets, celebrating victory. Then we can all go to the voting booth in November. Peace and democracy. But no.

The truth has revealed itself. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is simply using democracy as a front in the interests of dictatorship.

Refusing the peaceful compromise, forsaking the democratic process, continuing to harm the country for the interests of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, fighting against security forces of the rightful democratic government of Thailand _ that's an uprising, it's a rebellion.

It's criminal. That is not democracy.

If you disagree with me and think the UDD is in the right, then let me simplify it: The next time you're pulled over by the law in a traffic stop, you should just burn tyres, shoot slingshots at the cop and call him a dictator.

Anyone with an arrest warrant? No need to surrender. Barricade and fortify your home, fire slingshots and fire-crackers and call the law tyrannical.

Buy a lifetime membership to the Association of Anarchists. You don't belong in a civilisation.

The UDD leaders agreed to the prime minister's terms. But instead, Thaksin Shinawatra ordered Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol to step on the brake. Because in his mind, he's screaming: ''What about me!'' ''What do I get out of this entire peace and democracy shenanigans!''

Here's Thaksin's dilemma. Peace and the democratic process don't guarantee his return to power. Someone in Montenegro is kicking and screaming on the floor: ''Me! Me! Me! What about me!''

Accepting the compromise is a loss of face and may even make PM Abhisit look good in the eyes of the people, for biting the bullet and extending his hand. Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer rely on the voting booths. He can no longer rely on the democratic process.

The UDD has used democracy as a tool _ manipulated and exploited it to return Thaksin to power. Now that they are no longer confident that the democratic process will serve their interests, the UDD has transformed itself from a democratic movement into an uprising, a rebellion, a criminal organisation.

It's worth repeating: They wanted a House dissolution. They have one in September. They wanted a general election. They have one on Nov 14. That's democracy. Instead, they flushed democracy down the toilet.

So there's no negotiation other than the complete and total capitulation by the government to the UDD's every will and every whim. It's a total victory that will embarrass the government in the eyes of the Kingdom and of the world and may possibly bury the Democrat party. That's the game.

To Thaksin and the UDD, returning Thaksin to power is worth the 50-odd lives already lost. And that figure is bound to rise. More than 1,000 have been injured and that figure will rise. The billions of baht in economic damage. And that figure will rise.

It's an uprising. It's a rebellion. It's criminal.

The UDD is screaming: ''Now! Now! Now! Prime Minister resign now!'' Thaksin Shinawatra is crying: ''Me! Me! Me! I want my power back!'' That's not democracy. That's a child that needs to be put across the lap for a good spanking.

Let me repeat it again: They wanted democracy. They had democracy. We can all go to the voting booth on Nov 14. But they flushed democracy down the toilet and chose instead, a rebellion.

And when there's a rebellion, the government must put down the rebellion. Otherwise, we have anarchy. The law must be swift, severe and certain _ any student of criminology can tell you that.

I've watched television and read newspapers all this weekend. Most so-called intellectuals, academics and media talk about reconciliation. Well, that's easy and safe _ using a thousand flowery words without saying anything worthwhile.

We reap what we sow. Again, I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear _ it's a rebellion. To preserve civilisation, the government must put down the rebellion _ swift, severe and certain.

UDD members have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible. But they've died in a rebellion against the rightful, democratic government of Thailand.

The security forces that have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

Journalists and other innocent bystanders have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

It didn't have to come to this. It shouldn't have come to this. But here we are on the brink of anarchy because of the pride, greed and vengefulness of one man, and of the indecisiveness, uncertainty and lack of leadership of another.

Let me repeat: We reap what we sow. It's a rebellion. Put an end to it, swift, severe and certain. Or step down and let the rebels take over. The longer this crisis drags on, the closer we are and the deeper we will be in a state of anarchy.

[BlueBallz]

It didnt appear too much was kicking off in the Ratchaprasporng area last night. They must have been busy watching the FA Cup and hoping Chelski would win in a romp coz they all bet the Chavs and gave a 2 goal start!!! Still inside the "exclusion zone" and not going out anytime soon. I ahve delayed my departure for a day or three. If i can get someone to work my trip on Thursday, I will stay a few days longer.

Nothing is going to happen unless the govt get serious/aggresive v The Red Shirts. How long was the seige of Leningrad?? Over 800 days. Too right things should not hvae got to the point where the Reds took over an area and were able to dig in. If the govt/army decides to crsuh this rebellion they could do it no probs but at what cost?? They either let this go on and on and on.....or crack some heads. If they do the latter, hundreds if not THOUSANDS of people will die. Now there is a precendent, the 14th Oct of (1991 I think it was) there was a student uprsing and thousands died as the army went wild and shot people like dogs in the street. We live in a much different world media wise now. CNN was in its infancy and had the 24 hour news biz all to itself!! Those days are gone.

If you are in Patts, there is no difference I am sure. If you want a lovely ladyboy in Pook bar Soi 6, no worries. Like i sadi in a previous post, if you head to the Asoke neighborhood, you woldnt know anything were amiss. The action is fairly concentrated. I will stick my nose outside in a bit to have a looksee. If the 7 11 is closed in front of the condo, then theres gonna be REAL trouble. Good thing I bought a few more rolls of toilet paper yesterday......

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE-now more than ever!!!

[f0xxee]

(Snick @ May 16 2010,11:28) I would guess that most of the redshirts have family members involved in the tourist business AND depend on money they send home.
I have heard from girls that they were asked to send money, so someone could go to Bangkok rally.

Hi Snick,

Aren't the rural protesters paid to attend the rally? 300 B/day plus petrol?

Could this not be a twist on the sick buffalo routine?

I just read in the BKK Post a report from inside the red compound. It claims 2 million persons have joined the UDD and maybe up to 2.5 million.
Although this number is unconfirmed it gives me pause to suspect that you are right and there may be more support than I have seen.

[strocube]

Hey Spare Wheel, did you take those pictures of the unrest? Dude, very impressive whoever took them.

[BlueBallz]

Just typed this reply and lost it somehow. Anyhoo inside the "exclusion zone" here nearPanthip. Out and about buying food. 7 11 doing a brisk business and there are some food vendors as well. Walked up to the Army manned checkpoint near Rachetewi BTS station. theres another one manned by southern police about 400 meters inside. I can see a lot of smoke from burning tires. It must only be a couple of kms away.

Dont have to be back at work til a little longer so I dont have to leave just yet. Wonder if the real shit will hit the fan......

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE-now more than ever.

[azza33]

Region :   GDP per capita* : (baht)
Bangkok and Vicinity 327,321
Central Region 241,297
Eastern Region 332,798
Northern Region 69,773
North Eastern Region 42,968
Southern Region 98,743
Western Region 105,851


I guess when you get this type of economic imbalance... we see the result