The TLFs INSIDER TRADER!

[Bumpa STIKKA]

YELL is on sale for less than 20p..

Grab the bargain!

[PigDogg]

Bought some Cisco today.  I think 10% hit is an over reaction.

But my equity allocation is still approx 0% due mostly to SH and also to VXX which is a volatilty play which tends to go up when the market goes down.

[El_hefe]

I'm too nervous about Sept/Oct traditionally being the worse months of the market & things being so volatile lately. I'm staying on the sidelines for a while, but csco & msft are looking good, bought some earlier in the year tho.

[Ninewives]

(azza33 @ Dec. 31 2009,15:47)

(Ninewives @ Dec. 27 2009,11:16) Of course I am not giving financial advice but if it were me and I was wanting to invest in the Australian market - ASX code RED

hmmm

love the chart, nice pullback and stochastic is in a good position.

news looks interesting too

I don't usually like tips but in this case i'll be keeping a eye on this one  

RED is sitting on 18.5 (was 14 I think back then). A little slower than I had hoped but still a good story.

Azza you seem to watch the ASX - have a look at Cobar Consolidated Resources (CCU).

They are developing a silver mine at Wonawinta NSW. It is Australia's largest pure silver company. Final approvals to mine are expected during Q4 2010 and start of production by Q4 2011. Low capital spend due to shallow mines - 2 year payback.

I just bought a bunch at 20 cents - but I love a punt!

[azza33]

I'll take a look-- I held red for months and sold out at a small loss  

After I sold and it was quite recently, it slipped back to 11c and I thought what a great move.... Since then it's gone back to 18  

only thing I don't like about red is number of shares on issue.

[azza33]

(SamplerDoc @ Jun. 06 2010,09:31)

(azza33 @ Jun. 05 2010,10:56)

Well 50/50 chance you will be correct on that last call.

For the Aussies, check out KYC - nil debt 26mil cash in the bank, equating to 35cps asset backing & a business that's trading well.

I'll give it six months to see if it performs before dumping it.

Monday could be a good day to pick it up cheaply.

I suspect its discounted due to its history  

Buy Crap and thats what you will get.  101 says buy quailty that dropped for no other reason than the markets are moody and you will make decent profits.

It aint gambling or 50/50 if you are a smart investor

Did any Aussies get on my KYC - keycorp - tip?
Referred to as crap...

Takeover offer came through yesterday on this share. I'm very disappointed with the offer, but as private equity are buying them out... I guess they try and get a bargain

[Ninewives]

IMHO Red5 has a long way to go even with gold at such high levels.

It's a gold/copper explorer soon to be gold producer (should pour it's first gold in Q2 2011). Also has A$50M cash on hand and no debt. (although in process of organising a loan of a further $50M). It's cash cost is $350 per ounce against current sell price of around $1200. No gold hedge! Plus as it's mines are in the Philippines so it's costs and sales currency is in US$s -only currency exposure is translation and repatriation.

I will no doubt live to regret this but my thinking is:

RED in 12 months - 75cents

CCU 60 cents by end 2011 and over $1 by mid 2012

[azza33]

Disagree on red- why? @17.5c market cap is already $171mil ... It's not worth $700mil market cap and the instos won't support the push above 35c for now!

[Ninewives]

(azza33 @ Sep. 10 2010,10:16)

Disagree on red- why? @17.5c market cap is already $171mil ... It's not worth $700mil market cap and the instos won't support the push above 35c for now!

Azza you are right at $0.17 RED5 is a speculative share. The company is un-hedged giving exposure to movement in gold price.  What will the gold price do?

The basis for 75 cent valuation has some science behind it (largely based on details on their website):-

100,000 ozs pa @ $850  ($1200 - $350) divided by 977 Mil shares = $0.09 per share pa by 8 years = $0.70 disc @ 3% pa = $0.59

100,000 ozs pa @ $850  ($1200 - $350) divided by 977 Mil shares = $0.09 per share pa by 10 years = $0.87 disc @ 3% pa = $0.74

120,000 ozs pa @ $850 ($1200 - $350) divided by 977 Mil shares = $0.10 per share pa by 10 years = $1.04 disc @ 3% pa = $0.89

150,000 ozs pa @ $850 ($1200 - $350) divided by 977 Mil shares = $0.13 per share pa by 10 years = $1.30 disc @ 3% pa = $1.11
 
RED5 has two prospective mines.
A - Siana  Start of production April '11.  This mine has a resource of 850,000 ozs plus 350,000 ozs inferred.  Is open at depth and left & right of resource, therefore potential for increase.

B - Mapana  Copper / Gold potential. While has found Gold & copper has not been defined and requires a lot more drilling.

The company is mainly concentrating on developing Siana.

The valuation above does not include Mapana potential. IE no copper in valuation.

A mining coy in the same area, Medusa, is producing gold at 100,000 ozs pa with expectation to increase to 200,000 ozs pa over the next 2 years is selling for $4.60 per share with 170 mil shares = $780 Mil.   $780 / 977 = $0.80

There is currently some M&A activity in gold exploration companies with known resource base, therefore potential for take-over. If this happens the valuation will depend on the stage of the company in terms of production / exploration.  

But it is speculative €“ so you may end up being correct.....however the potential to get 100%  to 200% return within 12 months is exceptional, beyond that

[azza33]

Interesting numbers for sure. Cost base of running a business is too optimistic there.
I'll give you 50c ... still a good return~~

And of course if the other mine turns out to be a winner... then.... $$$$

[Ninewives]

Production costs are the least of the concerns, $350 cash cost is well within relativaties - but I'll take your 50 cents

[azza33]

CCU going very nicely ... due for a pullback soon

[Ninewives]

Azza my thoughts are long time not short time - which is generally different than my exploits in Thailand

[azza33]

I'm the same as Thailand... Stay for a bit and move onto the next interesting thing

They do say to be a good trader you must be in sync with your natural temperament

[Snick]

(Snick @ Mar. 31 2010,14:22) ok, back to serious
I bought AAPL and EWY a year and half ago, and did great on both.

Now, I don't know what to buy. The market has recovered (ahead of the real economy - some would say), and I do not see any great bargains out there.
Lately my TF has been doing well, it tracks the Thai Market, its under $11 (bought at $10) and should be $17-20 based on valuations (simply look at what TF was long time ago when SET was close to 800 back then), but this is Thailand and everyone knows how risky things are. Still its $11, that could go down to $8 if politics really fuck things up here, OR it could go to $17-20+ if thing settle down, economy grows, no one dies, etc...
Since the upside is bigger than the downside I might invest more in TF.

Otherwise, AAPL - great run, but its gotta end; GOOG - great company, but too hard to figure out where it will make more money and what fights they will get into next; China - bubble will pop someday, but who knows when a month or a decade; commodities - see China; Brazil -- I likey, maybe I'll put some money into a ETF; Russia - thanks, been mugged before; Indonesia - Maybe
except for a few key stocks, like AAPL - I'm investing outside the USA via ETFs

But is someone gives me $50,000 -- I'll open a LB club

The Snick Report

AAPL is back near its high (and will go higher) My Return +160%
EWY is at a 2 year High (and I say going higher) +100%
TF 2 year high (and going higher). +40%

MSFT is at the same price as 2005 ( and will go down), don't own it.

My biggest loser, and my biggest recommendation (I know, that sounds crazy)
NOKIA ( I bought years ago at $15 )

They are FINALLY shaking up management, 2 years too late; and getting into smart phones.

Imagine if Nokia came out with an Android phone like Galaxy-S or HTC ?
They would sell more, just by that fact that they are Nokia

And the stock is SO BEATEN UP, its hard to see a lot of downside
==
Crazy suggestion #2 ( so crazy I ain't following it)
short gold, its $1200+, production cost $400.
No serious hedge fund owns it, its all owned by people who are scared, once the fear factor is gone it will plummet (as it has in the past)

Of course, who the f&^% knows when the Fear Factor will pass. I Don't.