The TLFs INSIDER TRADER!

[Stogie]

Come on folks... give us your tips and hints on how to make it in the stock market.

20 March 2009

Who is going up and who is gonna crash and burn?

My tip for the next 12 months is Microsoft.

It opened today at $17.33

Windows 7 (when it happens) will breath new life into this stock and I reckon it will go up to about 25/6/7 maybe more before Google comes along and makes all OS software worthless!

For me this is a buy until the new OS has been out about a year so maybe even up to two years!

In addition I would say that computers selling their wares with Windows 7 OEM installed (including netbooks) will also have a surge of business for a while. Business will seriously consider switching from XP and it won't have the painful resistance that Vista went through.

I'll add others as I suss them out but...

...I am NOT an expert. There are no experts. If there was the stock market would not be a market!

I get my facts the same way everyone else does - from the internet!

Am I right or am I wrong? Do YOU know something that the rest of us don't? Wanna share some tips with us so we can all strike gold?

   

[JaiDee]

I just bought 1000 shares of Citibank last week at 2 bucks a share.

Just a year ago they were trading at 60, 30 times what I paid.

if they go under I only lose 2K ...... if they go up to even 10 bucks a share this year I make 5 times my investment.

there are certainly many bargains out there now, American Steel {X} being another good one. I also own a bunch of shares in Suntech power holdings, a company which makes wind turbines; green is the way of the future and these guys look good 2-3 years off.

"Buy and hold", the all-time stock market mantra, has never been more relevent than right now.

[jimslim]

What about sea monkeys

[PigDogg]

Hey JD, great minds think alike.  I bought 1000 shares of C too.  Bought at $1.32 for the same reasoning as you.  It's priced like a call option.

Pawnbrokers are interesting plays.  The pro argument is that people who are maxed out have nowhere else to go.  The con is that a populist Congress will crack down on pawnbrokers/payday lenders.

Water purification and waste management business is essential.  Companies who do business with China in this arena are also interesting.

But the main theme to play is reflation.  Uncle Ben does not fear inflation.  To the contrary, he welcomes it.  Enough inflation makes the toxic mortgage problem goes away.  

So TIPs look good.

So does oil, Swiss Francs and the Aussie dollar.

[abba]

(JaiDee @ Mar. 21 2009,00:04)  "Buy and hold", the all-time stock market mantra, has never been more relevent than right now.

But might be more relevant about 2 months down the road. (Should I stay, or should I go.)

Supposedly, a monkey throwing darts, can chose stocks. And often do well at it.

"It's a mystery to me ...for the usual fees ..."

[katoeylover]

RBS, lloyds and Barclays.

UK Retail banks are at an all time low. look for them to turn it around in the next 2 years and a government sell off in5-6 yrs time and cash in.

[azza33]

"Buy and hold", the all-time stock market mantra, has never been more relevent than right now.

Interesting thoughts... i am actively trading the current markets... my win % on closed trades is actually above 80% over the past 6 months.

As for a couple of buy and holds.... i have been slaughtered, although i feel they will improve in due course.

Personally i think now is the time to be actively trading ... buying when the markets appears to be manic selling in complete fear... and sell back your position when the market rallies.. not because of some miracle recovery but these rallies are more related to an absence of bad news.


As for Citibank... i completely understand the sentiments and as Piggdog said, it's almost like buying an option at these prices.
However citi is bankrupt an i wonder if this recession goes on one or two years longer ... will they finally allow Citi to be placed in the grave it so deserves?

I can't offer any tips...what i own this week could be gone the next day for all i know.

On a different note - Does anyone think that the US government will alter the way corporates are taxed in the good old USA? Sitting back there must be many companies with combined accrued losses in the order on half a trillion or more. If future profits are offset against these losses, good old corporate America won't be paying any taxes for quite a while.

Just makes me think that somewhere down the track, congress will pass a bill nullifying the ability to offset prior losses against current profits. If not how else is good old USA going to come up with cash to pay off its mountain of debt.

[pacman]

(azza33 @ Mar. 21 2009,06:35) Just makes me think that somewhere down the track, congress will pass a bill nullifying the ability to offset prior losses against current profits. If not how else is good old USA going to come up with cash to pay off its mountain of debt.

How can the US pay off its debt? They can't! Not now, not ever! Not under the current economic system.

Plus being debt free isn't even on their radar, when their GDP equals .016% of the total debt (including the CDF payout figure), there's no way any administration would even try to balance the books.

The rest of the world will simply have to resolve this, massive amounts will need to be written off, new paradigms introduced, the likely replacement of the US dollar as the de-facto world currency & much more.

If not, this will end very badly, for everyone. The last great depression only ended with the second world war.

No-one wants that, but without a lot of horse trading & diplomacy, that scenario cannot be dismissed.

[Snick]

i'm thinking

1/3 small cap index fund (small caps recover quicker after a pullback)
1/3 commodity fund (copper, etc...., not oil or gold specifically)
1/3 MCSI AAXJ - Asia ex Japan index fund

but now is not the time, there will be at least one more test of the lows

[molk]

Agree with Snick here. Individual shares can sound like a good deal when looking at historical graphs but remember - funds can plummet but "never" go bankrupt.

If a fund plummets there is still some hope if you can just let it be and live without that money for a few years but if a company would go bankrupt you lose it all.

Also, if investing in a fund you would not have to constantly be on the alert for issuing of new shares (rights issue or whatever it's called in angkrit).

That said most of my modest savings are in picked shares

But not in banks, yet. The big unemployment wave has not hit yet and therefore the banks still have a steady supply of money trickling in (payments on loans). This will probably (?) come to a halt during the fall I would *guess*. What do you think ?

Anyway I'll look into oil based funds, russian grain producer shares and stuff like that for the coming months.
Gold? Naah, unsure here this seems like a bubble but who knows, if inflation hits it might be a good deal to enter now anyway. But remember that the (industrial) demand for gold will also plummet if things get worse which is what they say it will.

Guess it will be an interesting year. Perhaps take refuge to cheap Cambo for a couple of years?

[azza33]

being debt free isn't even on their radar, when their GDP equals .016% of the total debt

I'm talking about government being able to get back on track and reign in their debt.
Splashing around total debt figures is not meaningful.... private sector debt can be used as wealth creation mechanism.. not so sure in these times however

[Snick]

(azza33 @ Mar. 21 2009,12:10)

being debt free isn't even on their radar, when their GDP equals .016% of the total debt

I'm talking about government being able to get back on track and reign in their debt.
Splashing around total debt figures is not meaningful.... private sector debt can be used as wealth creation mechanism.. not so sure in these times however  

USA debt as a % of GDP is not nearly as bad as most other countries (Japan especially). Another fact is the debt is insanely cheap, everyone in the world is buying USA Treasuries so the interest USA is paying on the debt is very very low.

Also remember that the USA gov't is buying up lots of toxic assets that it will be able resell in the (far?) future. Maybe making a profit, but at least recouping some of the initial money being spent.

During the Savings and Load crisis of the 80s that is what happened, and the gov't eventually turned a profit. This crisis is much bigger, but the parallel is still relevant.

Also keep the goal in mind: spend/print money, get the economy working, start collecting taxes and pay down debt.
If the gov't followed a too conservative approach, it would not spend money upfront, but it would see many more years low growth+tax receipts. 5-10 years down the line, the results would likely be worse.

[TTChang]

(Snick @ Mar. 21 2009,16:04) If the gov't followed a too conservative approach, it would not spend money upfront, but it would see many more years low growth+tax receipts. 5-10 years down the line, the results would likely be worse.

  But if the Economy doesn't respond as planned (and the crystal ball is crazed over on that), then the money flood will prove to have been the real disaster  ...  just pouring money down a black hole.  When I first heard Paulson on TV last year, I feared for the World's financial future.  Are you much more confident now, Snick?

Politically, they can't do anything else.   But ....   see pacman's post

[batman4ever]

ill stick to investmens in singha`s...thay way iam guranteed 5%

[Snick]

I'm a Keynesian, I think governments have to get involved with a mess this bad.
However I really wish they would do a better job, I would give them a C+ so far. But even a C+ is better than doing nothing at all, in which case things would be even worse now.
If AIG and Citibank had both went bankrupt - it would have destroyed everything. No letters of credit for international trade, airlines would have lost insurance and could not fly, etc......

I don't feel confident, no at all, but there is such a thing as making a bad situation worse.

ps. the one thing that does piss me off, is its the same people running these companies. They top 20 people at the companies should have been fired (with no golden parachute).