The TLFs INSIDER TRADER!

[manarak]

I don't think so.
The pressure from USA and EU would be too high on the Saudi.
Production in Irak has been ramped up, Russia is not on the same page as the Camelfuckers and USA and EU consume less energy due to people getting less revenue and economy being weak (less production). So, there will be no fundamental pressure on Oil prices.

A possible cause for Oil hitting 200 USD a barrel could be a new collapse of the USD. But since the other biggest reference currency (EUR) is collapsing right now, I expect the USD to remain more or less stable over the next months.

[Tomcat]

I read the report in a Science journal a few weeks back. It was conducted for Lloyds i think. I am amazed at how often information buried in the back of obscure science journals that has financial connotations comes to be true at some point.

ill dig it out if i have it and maybe you can take a look if its online.

We will have to see. ( maybe it was two years time but the hint was that $200 is a real possibility.

[manarak]

Science journals often tend to forget politics.


- Saudi: " fair price for oil is now 200 USD per barrel"
- USA: "keep it at 120, or we freeze all your accounts and cancel all USD papers you hold"
- EU: "What he said"
- Saudi: ...

Variant:

- Saudi: " fair price for oil is now 200 USD per barrel"
- USA: "keep it at 120, or we issue so much treasury bills that the USD will fall 50%. The US debt you are holding will lose half its value"
- EU: "ehhhh? that hurts us too!"
- USA: we don't care that much
- GB: well will issue debt too!
- Saudi: ...

[Tomcat]

The trouble with Economics is that it treats humans as rational for the most part and thats why many Economics theories cannot predict with any accuracy. Humans are not rational

[thaibound]

agreed, TC.
science. politics. human reason. economic theory. it all comes back to this:
everybody dies.

all attempts to exempt oneself from that truth lead inevitably to irrational behavior. be it submission to a religion, a king, a cause, heroic actions, the creation of progeny, or any other immortality symbol -- the most universal of which is the amassing of material wealth (be it sharks' teeth, land, goats, gold, or minted coins).

any economic theory that approaches this materialization of man's yearning for immortality as though it were any more rational than a belief that there's a god with a white beard waiting up in heaven, is as doomed to failure as the sought-after denial of death from which it was long ago born.

[azza33]

(Tomcat @ Jul. 01 2010,00:03) The trouble with Economics is that it treats humans as rational for the most part and thats why many Economics theories cannot predict with any accuracy. Humans are not rational

The biggest problem with economic forecasting is

1) all data used is always months behind where the economy actually is

2) economic models are partial equilibrium models and not general equilibrium analysis

as for rational -- humans are emotionally driven (fear & euphoria drive behaviours)

on an individual level perhaps rational is in question, but as a crowd it's probably a reasonable assumption - the extremes we see in markets are always driven by emotions however

[azza33]

(manarak @ Jun. 30 2010,20:59) The crisis is still there and it is much much worse than any government wants to admit...

Careful or pacman may jump into bed with you

[azza33]

I'm curious - how many here think the markets will test the 2009 lows??

[manarak]

this is a trick question.

Stocks are valued in currency.

I have thought about calculating something like a volume-weighted commodities basket to use as a comparison for the value of money.

[manarak]

(azza33 @ Jul. 01 2010,06:02)

(manarak @ Jun. 30 2010,20:59) The crisis is still there and it is much much worse than any government wants to admit...

Careful or pacman may jump into bed with you  

ok, as long as he brings Nikki with him and stays in his corner

[azza33]

(manarak @ Jul. 01 2010,06:34)
this is a trick question.

Stocks are valued in currency.

I have thought about calculating something like a volume-weighted commodities basket to use as a comparison for the value of money.

Lol I wasn't trying to be tricky- but you are correct.

If you convert the Dow to Aussie dollars it's been a bear market for 10 years.

On a simplistic level is this a minor correction or The final wave c unfolding to test or take out the march 09 lows?

[manarak]

To answer your question, I think the markets will be unstable.

I don't know if they will test the 2009 lows, but I'd bet there won't be any significant performance in the next 12 months.

I would be even more worried about currencies.

I sold almost all my portfolio a week ago and now hold 95% cash.
I also went out of CAD and AUD and converted everything to CHF.

Now I am waiting on an idea what to do with the cash.
Maybe commodities.


But I'll keep an eye on gold mines.
If they take too much beating...

[pacman]

(manarak @ Jul. 01 2010,06:35)

(azza33 @ Jul. 01 2010,06:02)

(manarak @ Jun. 30 2010,20:59) The crisis is still there and it is much much worse than any government wants to admit...

Careful or pacman may jump into bed with you  

ok, as long as he brings Nikki with him and stays in his corner

    Nicky & I? It seems that unlike her, that reputation has stuck...      

Two stories to indicate what lies ahead & why we all need to worry -

The Australian Labor Party has just ruthlessly replaced our Prime Minister with our first lady PM, Julia Gillard. The previous PM & all his ministers had boasted that their quick actions saved Australia going into recession & that the country avoided the worst of the GFC.

When Julia was being interviewed on her plans when she took office last week, she was vague on everything except one question - the country will definitely have an election this year. There is no desire to wait till the end of the current term, to give her time to bed in her new ideas, nothing, because they know what is coming next year - a financial tsunami so big, so bad, that no policy adjustments will help us this time.

The second story is more anecdotal. A friend who sells commercial & country properties has told me that problems in obtaining finance is impacting his business so badly & the prospects for next year are so worrying, that he fears the worse. I accept that is only one person's opinion but he has been on the scene for 35 years & has never seen such conditions & every month it is getting worse.

And those who have money are just sitting back waiting for prices to drop even more. They may be dreaming but I don't think so.

[azza33]

I got a sneaky suspcion banks are checking servicing for property loans off rates well above the current market levels to ensure people are not over committed with the "booming" aussie economy lol

irony there is the Rba will probably need to inact emergency cuts again as the economy slows, partially driven by more restrictive lending standards, in a worst case scenario.

Australia is ideally placed to cope better than any developed nation if there is a major second dip. Why? Our rates are 4.5% and means there is plenty of scope for monetary policy to help lesson any downturn.

[Bumpa STIKKA]

If you are a share holder for the medium to long term in the UK then there are many offering yields of 10% and will continue to do so.