The RED SHIRT Crisis in Bangkok!

[guydesavoy]

(rxpharm @ May 20 2010,18:04) - here's an interesting Youtube video that shows a segment where Arisman, one of the Red Shirt leaders announcing a list of targets for arson if the military were to close the main site..... - it seems to show that the arson was all preplanned.

Very instructive Rx. This will factor into the post mortem re whether these incidents were the product of 'rebel/mystery' elements or rather part of a larger plan. Thaksin included...

[Lefty]

(JaiDee @ May 20 2010,18:25) stupid question perhaps, but;  if you were landing at BKK airport tonight at 11pm or so, how would you get to your hotel or your home if there is a curfew? with all the stores and shit closed after 9pm, how are you getting milk and water and other essentials, store up in the daytime only??

Just got this from an expat friend by email:

Air passengers can travel to and from airport during curfew hours
BANGKOK, May 20 (TNA) €“ Air passengers with travel documents can travel to and from Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport during curfew hours, according to Suvarnabhumi Airport Director, Nirun Thiranartsin.

Air passengers for outbound flights can travel freely by showing air tickets and  passports to soldiers, he said.

Passengers arriving from overseas will be offered express transportation service from Suvarnabhumi Airport on three routes to Ratchapisek, Silom and Sukhumvit at 10 pm, midnight and 2 am. Passenger vans will be of service around the clock.

Air passengers are advised to check their flight schedules as some airlines cancel flights which have insufficient passengers. Those passengers will be offered to travel by another flight.

The Centre of the Resolution for the Emergency Situation (CRES) Thursday declared the extension of the curfew imposition for three more nights from Thursday to Saturday.

However, it reduced the curfew hours to 9pm to 5am from 8pm to 6am imposed on Wednesday night.

The government decided to impose a curfew in Bangkok and 23 provinces after anti-government Red Shirt protesters were outraged after the military operations to retake the main protest site at Ratchaprasong area forced their leaders to surrender to the police.

Thirty nine spots in downtown Bangkok as well as some city halls in the northeastern provinces were set on fire by furious Red Shirt supporters. (TNA)

[Lefty]

(rxpharm @ May 20 2010,18:04) While not totally on topic - here's an interesting Youtube video that shows a segment where Arisman, one of the Red Shirt leaders announcing a list of targets for arson if the military were to close the main site. While not the main point of this video - it seems to show that the arson was all preplanned.

Thanks RX. Very interesting video. I really have not one iota of love or sympathy for the red shirts. In my mind there is no moral justification whatsoever in committing acts of arson against places like Central Mall. They deserve any just deserts they receive.

[BlueBallz]

(jadeite @ May 19 2010,22:02)

The Thai Thai stock market is doing great too. Has become very bullish as things have worsened. Reminds me of all the president Clinton scandals, each scandal resulted in his approval rating going up much to the anger of republicans.

Just Imagine for a moment if the reds when they were in power smashed the yellows like this when the yellows shut down the airport and government house and dared the government to do something about it! People would have immediately ridiculed Thaksin as abusing power, murderer, masterminding of the whole thing, blah blah blah. But the reds hardly lifted a finger even though the yellow fiasco cost Thailand 300000000000 baht and a ton of credibility. That's 300 billion by the way if you have trouble counting all those zero's.

Now the roles have changed and right or wrong the reds get smashed and predictably, it's all Thaksin's fault yet again. Also got a laugh Thaksin spotted going shopping during this period angered people that he wasn't in his war room pushing all the buttons of his paid robots or something. For some, no matter what happens it's just always going to be Thaksin's fault. He has that polarizing effect. But like it or not, most in Thailand thought things were better in the Thaksin years and are not happy to have their votes squashed.




Theres a lot of truth in that post. Having said that, The Reds were stupid to turn down the roadmap deal offered about 10 days ago. The burning of Bangkok by the Reds just makes them ALL look like a bunch of thugs. It deflects attention away from the fact that they had a LEGIT beef....

[laputanegra]

(Grinder @ May 20 2010,15:46) Oh alright then... you were probably with Socrates when he rang me last night as well  

oh that was u on the phone

[azza33]

(rxpharm @ May 20 2010,18:04) While not totally on topic - here's an interesting Youtube video that shows a segment where Arisman, one of the Red Shirt leaders announcing a list of targets for arson if the military were to close the main site. While not the main point of this video - it seems to show that the arson was all preplanned.

Interesting rx, I was chatting to a gg friend of mine from pattaya and she said the same. It was preplanned whether they won or lost!
But it does beg the question- if this was known, why didn't the govt. Plan for it, or did they allow it to happen to further splinter the Thai community??

[Master Bator]

(BlueBallz @ May 21 2010,04:51) But like it or not, most in Thailand thought things were better in the Thaksin years and are not happy to have their votes squashed.


                   

Theres a lot of truth in that post.  Having said that, The Reds were stupid to turn down the roadmap deal offered about 10 days ago.  The burning of Bangkok by the Reds just makes them ALL look like a bunch of thugs.  It deflects attention away from the fact that they had a LEGIT beef....

Things were better everywhere in the world during the Thaksin years.
So you want to give him credit for that as well??

Any government or prime minister can do nothing right during an economic crisis and global recession.

Look like thugs? They are thugs!

Agreed the Reds have quite valid points but so far they have not been able to come up with an unblemished leader.

Followingan article which in my opinion is a correct reflection of the real situation.

EDITORIAL
This is no peasant's revolt
By The Nation

Red leaders were happy to stir the protesters into a frenzy and then abandon them when the battle seemed lost

BANGKOK: -- If anyone still thinks the ongoing street battle in Bangkok is a war between the urban rich and the rural poor, they need to think again. First of all, it might be easy to come to this simplistic perception as video after video and photograph after photograph suggest. On the one hand, there is a professional military armed with modern weapons, while on the other is a bunch of ragtag villagers and urban poor using Stone-Age weapons. Outnumbered and outgunned, these red shirts are putting their lives on the line to "liberate" this kingdom from the evil rich.

At first it was, "No, we don't have any weapons. We are peaceful people." But as the past six days have showed, these red shirt liberators are no longer camera shy. The closer the camera gets to them, the cockier they get. One man was in his underwear dancing for them. Another put up his toddler on the barricade. Somehow there was a desire to perform for the camera. One wondered why.

It's also difficult to miss the English signs and placards around the red enclaves. They read: "Democracy" and "Stop killing innocent women and children" and so on. And while television cameras capture these placards, red leaders turn up the heat on the stage, getting the crowd rowdy.

And as these images and sound-bytes shape the context of understanding of these events, meanwhile, on the government side we hear the word "terrorist" over and over to the point that it becomes almost meaningless.

It has been a hard-sell for the government counter-propaganda strategy, partly because homemade rockets and slingshots cannot be compared to hijacked planes crashing into tall buildings. But playing the "terrorist" card could prove disastrous, especially when the time comes to make concessions.

The red leaders have succeeded in getting their crowd into the fight of their lives. And then all of a sudden, after hundreds had been injured and scores killed, they wanted to call it quits. Unfortunately, they created Frankenstein, and the monster is tossing Molotov cocktails into shopping malls.

Nevertheless, through the lens of television cameras over these past weeks and months, the world has seen a compelling story made from incomprehensible data that reinforces what the audience wants to believe. The bottom line is that people believe what they see.

And what they see is a greedy elites versus the impoverished poor, and of course, the latter will always be right, as they hold the moral high ground. It's a mindset that shaped human history and it sells, and it is easy to consume once it is reduced to bite-size.

But is "good versus evil" the only way to see a developing country like Thailand - through the same lens that one used for other troubled places like Manila two decades ago or Rangoon just a year ago? The uprising in Thailand is no Philippine's "People Power" and Prime Minister Abhhisit Vejjajiva is no Ferdinand Marcos.

Never mind Tiananmen Square, but let's imagine if this was Paris, London or New York, the reds doing what they have done, they wouldn't have lasted for more than a week.

Is it because third world countries do not deserve the same kind of civility and ground rules that we see in Western society? Being reminded of one's deep prejudices isn't pleasant.

Furthermore, the fact that Abhisit made a serious offer - to hold a general election by November - that was rejected by the red leaders makes one wonder if the people's mandate was ever on their mind in the first place. They seem to care more about getting bail after this wave of street battles comes to an end than the wellbeing of the ordinary red shirts.

But the red leaders do not have a monopoly on selfishness and insensitivity. Their role model, Thaksin Shinawatra, was seen strolling along the Champs Elysees in Paris with his youngest daughter while his red followers were taking the bullets, partly to help pave the way for his pardon and the return of his money seized by the state - and partly, of course, for democracy, liberty and justice for all.

[rxpharm]

Here is an excellent analysis from Asia Times Online

Thai power grows from the barrel of a gun
By William Barnes

BANGKOK - The relative success of Thailand's red-garbed anti-government protest group in outmaneuvering the government and military owes much to Maoist revolutionary thought and guerilla tactics.

Therdpoum Chaidee, a former communist and colleague of key protest leaders, says that the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship's (UDD) strategy has necessarily required violence, or at least the threat of violence, to divide and immobilize Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government.

"The revolution walks on two legs. One political leg and one army leg. Violence is the essential ingredient in the mix. That is what we were taught," said Therdpoum.

The UDD has publicly portrayed itself as a non-violent, pro-democracy movement, a line many international media outlets
have perpetuated. It has occupied a large swathe of Bangkok's luxury shopping and hotel district for more than six weeks, paralyzing the symbolic heart of the country's capitalist economy.
Abhisit's government has threatened but failed to remove the thousands of protesters, apparently over fears that the use of force would result in multiple deaths and possible international censure. UDD leaders have threatened "civil war" if security forces crack down on their supporters, known locally as the "red shirts".

The protest group has rallied around its symbolic hero and presumed patron, former populist prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The businessman-cum-politician was ousted in a 2006 military coup and later fled into exile to avoid a two-year jail sentence related to a corruption conviction. Thaksin has since cajoled UDD supporters to rise up and topple the government through various video-linked phone-in addresses.

UDD leaders have demanded the dissolution of parliament, currently controlled by a coalition of political parties and backed by the Bangkok establishment, and new elections that they anticipate would be won by the Thaksin-aligned opposition Puea Thai party. They have recently accepted in concept a compromise reconciliation roadmap presented by Abhisit, which calls for new elections to be held on November 14, but not yet abandoned their protest sites.

Tensions spiked violently on April 10, when a routine crowd clearance operation - of the sort successfully deployed by the army against a similar UDD protest in April 2009 - turned into a nightmare of bloodshed. Mysterious commandos, clad in black and circulating freely through the red shirt protesters, used M79 grenades to attack tactical army commanders, killing a highly respected colonel and maiming others.

In the mayhem that followed, 25 protesters and solders were killed and over 800 injured after an operation that started with soldiers wielding batons and ended in deadly firefights. Coincident with the UDD's protest has been a string of anonymous M79 grenade attacks, with over 50 incidents in Bangkok and at least 30 more across the country since mid-March.

On April 22, five grenades were fired into Bangkok's main business district directly opposite a UDD erected bamboo and car-tire street barricade. One person was killed and 90 others injured or maimed, including members of a small pro-government protest group that has expressed opposition to the UDD's protests.

Fog of war
The government has said it aims to separate ''terrorists'' from the ordinary protesters, while some red shirts have thanked the anonymous black-clad assailants for coming to their defense against state security forces. Therdpoum, a former member of parliament under Thaksin's original Thai Rak Thai party, says there has been obfuscation and propaganda on both sides of the conflict.

"The people who are the real planners, not the people up on stage making protest speeches, these people probably keep a very low profile, but they must calculate that aggression is vital," he said. "Aggression paralyzes and divides opponents. This is what we were taught, this is how a smaller force can defeat overwhelming power. The message was: divide and conquer."

Whether the UDD's shadowy armed wing consists of mafia thugs, unemployed irregulars or disaffected regular soldiers, they must be capable of ruthless and focused violence, he said.

Therdpoum, born in humble circumstances in northeastern Thailand, was a hotel union organizer who fled to the communist underground in 1975 to oppose a brutal right wing government. Many hundreds of the country's most energetic students and intellectuals did the same. Most, like Therdpoum, later renounced the ideology.

His five-year odyssey with the Communist Party of Thailand (CPT) included a three-month period in Hanoi in the heady period following the unification of Vietnam under communist rule. There, Therdpoum and a handful of hand-picked Thai activists, like prominent student leader Seksan Prasertkun, as well as current UDD leaders Weng Tochirakan and Jaran Dittapichai, were drilled in Maoist revolutionary theory.

The five tactics they learned for unseating a government included: divide your enemies; form a united front; use provocative violence; secure the loyalty of people inside the ruling regime; and, finally, win over the army.

"That is what we have seen. The government people have been quarrelling about what to do. Some senior figures have a divided loyalty. The army and the police cannot move. Provocative violence has been very successful," said Therdpoum, referring to the UDD's campaign to topple Abhisit's government.

"The tactic is to keep saying that you are a peace-loving people. The many factions folded into the united front [UDD] organization are not told what the real strategy is because they might not agree and they might not act their part convincingly," he added.

A generation ago, the eager young communists in Thailand's underground movement, many of whom now play major roles on Thailand's political stage, were told that propaganda should be blunt, simple and repeated incessantly to be effective. The UDD has similarly shunned hard policy debates in favor of simple credos of justice denied and the hypocrisy of elites.

"The red shirt people have been told over and over that greedy people in authority have denied them justice and their fair share. They have been pumped full of toy-town leftism and told to hate every institution that has held this country together. I worry that the bitterness and hatred produced by this propaganda now runs so deep it will cause tension and problems for a long time," Therdpoum said.

"Many of them are now absolutely convinced that Thaksin was the best leader in Thai history, that he was a kind and generous man who holds the solution to all their problems. They don't need a program - they just need a new Thai state with Thaksin in charge. It has become very emotional - as it was designed to be," he added.

Ignorance over knowledge
Other observers believe that the anti-Thaksin, yellow-garbed People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group that occupied Government House for several weeks and closed down Bangkok's airports for 10 days in 2008 helped to show the UDD how effective determined and prolonged protests could be. To be sure, there were violent moments during the PAD's many protests, launched first to remove Thaksin and later his proxy governments, but not to the extent of the current shadowy campaign of bombings and shootings.

The red shirts consist of many passive supporters, many active ones and, now, a hand-picked core of "professional revolutionaries" chosen for their loyalty and street smarts, according to Therdpoum. Behind them are many "deep secrets and hidden messages" that are revealed to only a privileged few in the movement, while an even smaller number know the entire strategy, he claimed.

"Old communists know that when it comes to revolution, ignorance is much more powerful than knowledge," Therdpoum said.

It is thus ironic that more former communists are currently on side with the royalist PAD than the supposedly pro-poor UDD, which is simultaneously striving to restore the billionaire Thaksin's wealth and power. So, too, is the fact that while the UDD has called with revolutionary zeal for a new political order, the Thaksin-aligned Puea Thai party that will contest the next elections is packed with old-style and corruption-tainted patronage politicians.

Therdpoum believes that the UDD's sincere left-wing members are using Thaksin and anticipate the opportunity to eventually dump his personal agenda in favor of the establishment of a more socialist society. Some of the former communists who took up arms and fled into the jungle in the 1970s and 1980s and were once in Thaksin's inner circle include Prommin Lertsuridej, Phumtham Wechayachai, Sutham Saengprathum, Phinit Jarusombat, Adisorn Piangket and Kriangkamon Laohapairot.

Its unclear how many of those former communists are now active from behind-the-scenes in the UDD's planning and strategy. Some media have recently published photographs of the UDD's three main stage leaders, Veera Musigapong, Natthawut Saikua and Jatuporn Prompan, with the exiled Thaksin in what appear to be planning sessions leading up to the current protests. It is debatable, however, how much real power they wield over broad strategy and tactics; Therdpoum, for one, discounts them as "showmen".

UDD organizer Jaran Dittapichai told this correspondent that the protest group had adopted "Mao Zedong's method of thinking" and some of his techniques, including the establishment of a united front. "I was a communist and several leaders were former communists ... but the red shirt people don't like communism or socialism. We use his principles to build up our front and to work with people who are not red shirts, but who are fighting for democracy like us."

He, like other UDD leaders, has consistently denied that the group is behind the mysterious bombing campaign that has coincided with its protest activities. "There is no third hand. There is only the first hand and the second hand ... the government side and our people," Jaran said.

"Before we started we discussed the [potential] problem of the third hand and who they might be. We were worried that someone might throw a bomb at us or shoot at us. We still have good luck - no one comes to throw a bomb [at us]."

William Barnes is a Bangkok-based journalist.

Quite an eye opening revelation of the methods the Red Shirt leaders employed.

[El_hefe]

He's sick & his heir isn't very popular, it will be the start of some serious power struggles as the vacuum he leaves is negotiated by those who would seize the moment for various motives. There isn't a strong enough political system now to transition smoothly to the post-regal era.... it could get bumpy for a while.

[f0xxee]

For anyone interested:
Mrs F and I drove up leaving HH at 1900 hours via Kanchanaphisek Rd East (9) to the airport and made it there by 2115! Some sort of a record! There was zero traffic and only one roadblock, 2k from the airport. Once they saw a falang driver there were no issues.
Leaving the airport at 0030 was an eye-opener... can anyone honestly say they have pulled onto the Bangkok-Chonburi freeway (7) with NO TRAFFIC whatsoever?
It was almost scary. K' Road across BKK again... BKK totally dark. My friends who have been to LOS many times told me that they looked out the windows of the plane and saw virtually no road traffic.
2 hours and 20 minutes back to HH, with a road block at Cha Am no doubt due to the Red Shirt leaders being held at the camp between CA and HH.
All in all a pleasant stress free driving experience!

[whore]

Vanilla sky

[Road Runner]

An interesting article Rx also the video you posted above.


The five tactics they learned for unseating a government included: divide your enemies; form a united front; use provocative violence; secure the loyalty of people inside the ruling regime; and, finally, win over the army.

These are the 5 principles expounded by Mao. They were used by the IRA in Northern Ireland but fortunately for the UK the government got wise to them and the last two were never likely to work anyway.


Ignorance over knowledge
"Old communists know that when it comes to revolution, ignorance is much more powerful than knowledge," Therdpoum said.

This is the part that worries me.  The state of education in much of Thailand contributes to the ignorance of general population.
It's helped the ruling elite to keep a grip on things up to now but ultimately it could backfire on them.


The red shirts consist of many passive supporters, many active ones and, now, a hand-picked core of "professional revolutionaries" chosen for their loyalty and street smarts, according to Therdpoum. Behind them are many "deep secrets and hidden messages" that are revealed to only a privileged few in the movement, while an even smaller number know the entire strategy, he claimed.

Years ago I read a very interesting book written by two journalists about terrorism.  (Unfortunately I have never been able to re-discover it.)

They pointed out (using the IRA as an example) that at the height of the IRA's power they probably had a maximum of 100 active terrorists  -  those doing the bombing, shooting, punishment beatings etc.

For each terrorist there would be 10 people who assisted them  -  provided safe houses, transport, information.

Behind each of those 10 would be about 100 who knowing or unknowing (mostly unknowing) would be suppling money, daily living needs, small supplies etc.
Many of the last group actually do not want violence and want it to stop.
However they feel deprived by the authorities and sympathise with the terrorits aims if not their methods.

The trick for the government is not to shoot the terrorists  -  only when you have to.
The best way is to remove their support base  -  the 1000 people behind them.
Remove their grievances and the money and support for the terrorists disappears.


I don't hold out any hope at the moment that the government in Bangkok is about to address those grievances.    

RR.

[Road Runner]

(f0xxee @ May 21 2010,10:21) All in all a pleasant stress free driving experience!

So not like the ending of Butch Casidy and The Sundance Kid then?

I guess HH is quiet as usual. Any warships sitting off the beach?

RR.

[Master Bator]

Driving through Pattaya has been a breeze these days.
Perhaps they should keep the curfew in place. ...
Plenty to be had during the daytime.
Even lb's are getting their lazy asses out of bed earlier. The early bird catches the worm

Well that's what I've been told...

[guydesavoy]

Glad is was uneventful Foxxee...something to tell the grandkids