Rumblings of Revolution Up North

[deepthroat]

Hi all, I hope I'm not rumor mongering here, but I have read a couple of references recently to "rumblings from the provinces up north" which seemed to infer that their may be something starting that bears similarity to the events of last year.

Can any of the Feets On the Streets dismiss these rumors? Or are you seeing/hearing things that lend credence to them?

My trip for Jan/Feb is already booked. No turning back now (not that I'd want to either way).

My uninformed guess is that there is always a low level of discontent from the provinces now that Thaksin has unleashed the genie from the bottle (or Pandora from her box more like) and that these "rumblings" aren't anything to be taken seriously.... yet.

What do you know?

[Bumpa STIKKA]

Hopefully the impact of internal politics in Thailand will have a minimal impact for us.

[katoeylover]

The reds in Issan are still pissed over what they see as an overthrow of their government and the treatment in Bangkok.

[azza33]

There was recent raid at a place in chiang mai where red shirts were undertaking military training.

[El_hefe]

The health outcome of the monarch may be the big mover for them.

[Bumpa STIKKA]

(El_hefe @ Oct. 18 2010,08:46) The health outcome of the monarch may be the big mover for them.

Good job you said that in the VIP area!

[f0xxee]

While taking heed from the point made above, I think EH is correct. My 2ic at work, a highly intelligent professional Thai working in VN also fears the vacuum that will be created by a change in players at the highest level.

I asked him was a nationalistic upswelling likely: (lets face it the easiest way to unite a country is to find a common foe). He suggested that although that might be the case it was unlikey to be directed towards Falangs, at the end of the day we were useful.

Look out Cambodia?

[Snick]

They've been playing the Cambodia card for a year now, it actually backfired on them. Made the gov't look weak and inept.

My opinion, there is a chance things could explode at any time, but I think it will simmer until next fall. The governments 5 years are up next November and they have to call new elections. If they somehow postpone elections, or have them in a unfair manner (like preventing reds from gathering for election rallies), then that could be the catalyst.

[pacman]

I had many conversations with ex-pats & locals during my recent stay in Pattaya about the Red Shirts & the Crown Prince-in-waiting.

A couple of comments I am happy to share with the forum are:

    - there will be no peace in LOS & no let-up from the Red's demands until there is some measure of justice given to them. As it would take a coup by the Reds for them to end their struggle, this implies a civil war, the worst possible outcome.

   - the change of the guard at the top offers a once-in-a-100-year opportunity for someone to seize power. Thaksin knows this but no one will prevail without the support of the military.

   -  the jury is still out as to whether the locals will accept the promotion of the Crown Prince to the top job. The Yellow Shirts will of course, they represent the status quo who want to keep their entitlements.

   - China is keeping a very close watch on proceedings. It would appear that no side will prevail who they don't approve of. And I have no doubt that the US is likewise interested.

   - it was reported the Red Shirt farmers who went to Bangkok were being paid 300 baht per day. This was revised to 150 per day, then 100 baht. I made the comment that Thaksin could easily afford the expense. I was told that the rumour was he wasn't paying, China was picking up the tab. Please note the word "rumour".

   - both sides are deadlocked. There appears no way to avoid major confrontation unless the military can lock down the country. Once the populace would have accepted the instruction from the top but with the lack of enchantment towards the oldest son, this cannot be relied on.

There were other, more outrageous views expressed but these are my synopsis of the more sane ones. I am not presenting them as facts & there will be many more twists to the tale before this all ends.

In my opinion, the Thais will come up with a uniquely Thai way to resolve this. They are fiercely proud who won't tolerate being manipulated by outside interests. It will all come down to who the military supports & they may have grand plans of their own.

[f0xxee]

Yep,

With the exception of the Chinese input what you are hearing is pretty much what I am hearing too.

However Thaksin has had a sizable portion of his fortune clipped and his reputaion somewhat sullied by his treatment )(or lack thereof) after the Ratchaprasong arrests.

I dont think he is the force he once was.

[deepthroat]

Thanks for the input so far. I think the bit about the Chinese being behind the unrest is paranoid conspiracy BS though - anyone else think this deserves more credence? I mean, realistically - what would be in it for China that would make the risk/reward worthwhile? 25 years ago that might have gotten a lot of play, but today they seem way more interested (and successful) in attempts to colonize us all commercially.

[Jake_Sully]

From what I've heard from talking to relatives recently, is the reds will win any election hands down as they have massive people support. The army and king's wife favors the yellows which tends to make the situation tricky.

Will be interesting how this resolves itself. Their advice to me: When I come, don't wear red or yellow, avoid crowds, don't discuss politics except with family in a closed house and enjoy. Look as much as a tourist as I can and both sides will ignore me. That'll be hard.

[f0xxee]

Hi Jake,

Not sure where you get your figures on massive support for the red. Yes they are making a lot of promises to the poor and gaining support that way, but generally speaking most Thais (and this is me speaking my uninformed opinion) that I speak to that have small businesses be they the somtam lady or the ice cream guy are not happy with the sweeping promises of the Reds without the ability to back it up. They see them as fragmented and a party of convenience for the disenfranchised... I think having the support of socialists and communists has been harmful to the cause.

Thais (IMHO) are justifibly cynical about thier politics and politicians... All they ask is for a reasonable leve of graft rather than massive swindling.

While the reds hold a majority in the North and North east and the satellite cities of BKK, i think the majority are unimpressed by them.
As long as the middle class, the upper lower class, the military, the police and the acedemia see the red shirts as intolerable (which they will if they are perceived to be socialists) then they reds got no chance... IMHO.

They have highlighted the intolerable inequality in LOS, so maybe they still serve a purpose as a watchdog.

[Jake_Sully]

Foxxee you just answered your own question: While the reds hold a majority in the North and North east and the satellite cities of BKK.

My extended family tends to live in those exact areas and while they don't consider themselves very political, they must tend to live in an area where they feel the reds will win. That's how it was explained to me, Isaan 95% red, North 80% red, Bangkok 60% red, south 55% yellow. Red will win 60/40 at worst - exact words.

But yes, you and the whole forum know it better than I do since I haven't been there in over 2 decades but was just adding a viewpoint of the people I know and talk to every so often to this discussion. But like all things, heresay can be exaggerated. But the way they tend to feel is the red is good for thai's. The yellows are bad for business and the people suffer. I don't know if its propaganda or truth.

[El_hefe]

What makes it easier for us is that there is no clear party that is obvious to side with, or I should say sympathize with, as a outsider. Both leave quite a bit to be desired to the Western mind, so may the chips fall where they may in a sense.

I too fear there may be a civil war, it seems very likely, or worse, a protracted period of civil insurrection where there is regular violence on a hit & run basis like there was in Northern Ireland. Worst case scenario the Moslems in the south seize the moment & join in for their own ends &, as tourism is such a cash cow for the government, tourists could be a target in this scenario. Hope not, but this is similar to what happened to Lebanon.
The army is probably the key to the future.