State of Emergency in Bangkok

[batman4ever]

(daveduke007 @ Apr. 13 2009,07:22) I had punters in my pub tonight telling me how dangerous it is to visit    right now, these same punters have "NEVER" set foot in    

They are advising me not to go to    because the British Embassy said so

What the BE have "Actually" said is to be careful, Rule Brittania  

See you in    from the 13th May "hook or by crook"    

the same have happend to me the last couples of days....

but hey...it comes from the same guys that tells me to be afraid of ladyboys....

[Master Bator]

(bigmick22 @ Apr. 12 2009,23:18) the 6% probably doesn't include payment for sexual services. I get the feeling the girls don't pay taxes - so difficult to have an accurate read on their income from this

I wonder what these red shirt guys will do when their young sisters and girlfriends don't have any money to give to them anymore....

[PigDogg]

The bloodshed has begun.

It's confirmed that there's wounded and rumors of deaths. Word is that TV is not showing the magnitude of the violence.

[grunyen]

Hey guys. I never have time to check the site anymore, but I saw the headlines and came to check on everybody. I hope you all are ok.

Since I don't understand any of this stuff, can someone give me a good primer on Thailand / BK politics and history? Who are the red shirts and yellow shirts? When this whole Thaksin thing happened before I never understood if he was considered a "good guy" or a "bad guy".

What is Thaksin all about and what are his good points/bad points? Who is in favor of him or against him? Same with the current guy. And what would be the best possible course for Thailand??

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Road Runner]

Hello Grunyen,

The red shirts are supporters of Taksin (very roughly the Republicans).
His power base is/was? N & NE Thailand (Issan) + the Royal Thai Police + most of the army conscripts come from Issan.

The Yellow shirts are the supporters of the PAD who are running the country at the moment  (very roughly the Democrats).
Their power base is the big cities/provinces near the Gulf of Thailand  (Bangkok etc) + the senior officers of the armed forces (for which read the army).

Taksin got into power fairly legally and then used business practices to run the country and make many good improvements and do some much needed reforms.
But he also used his position for his own ends and to try to make sure he stayed in power perpetually.

His removal by the army was said to have support from high-up.

And what would be the best possible course for Thailand??

Good question.  In my opinion it would be to exclude the police and army from politics like we do in the UK.

RR.

[Foggy]

All this mess and madness has probabaly helped me as Im coming over to BKK on Wednesday and have a standby ticket with Thai Airways. The flight will be wide open and I should get a seat...

On a serious note Im with Grunyen on this and dont pay much attention to Uk or Thai politics... I cant change things and unless it effects me directly Im more interested in pursuing things that do...

Stay safe out there...

[Torurot]

Except that the "military" has been involved in Thai politics since 1960's [forever]

[BigTel]

Just read this from the Nation Newspaper website

Govt will secure ports, airports

By: AFP
Published: 13/04/2009 at 01:00 PM

Measures were being taken to secure major ports and airports, the government spokesman said on Monday as the government continued its crackdown on red-shirt protests.

"In the next few hours several security measures will be taken to secure all major ports, airports and major infrastructure for your own safety,'' government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said in a television address.

"This is a very normal, routine procedure during an emergency,'' he said in a live television address that went out on all channels, in English and Thai.

The government on Sunday declared a state of emergency in and around Bangkok as thousands of red-shirted demonstrators called on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to quit.

"We would like to assure you that the unrest situation in Thailand is being brought back under control,'' said Mr Panitan.

As he spoke, soldiers again clashed with protesters in the streets of the capital.

my only worry was that the Airport would be shut down again, lets hope they keep it open atleast long enough to get us in.

[laputanegra]

(BigTel @ Apr. 13 2009,16:59)           my only worry was that the Airport would be shut down again, lets hope they keep it open atleast long enough to get us in.

                               

me too tel

[BigTel]

They can close the Airport once we are there Tan, then we get a longer Holiday

[tomscam]

So when will the ads for cheap flights to Thailand start coming out? The market must be fucked and they need those tourist there to generate income and stimulate the economy. Some $500AU return tickets would be great (from Brisbane).

[Ivor Biggun]

Please see above- Tourism DOES NOT have a great impact on the economy, a lot of its money disappears into the black economy ie bargirls, rip off tuk tuks, etc. 5-6%of GDP does not an economic stimulus make.

[manarak]

5-6%of GDP does not an economic stimulus make

I guess you're not an economist?
5-6% is big in a GDP.
The official figure in 2007 for direct income from tourism was around 6.5%.

On the other hand, the UN estimated in 2002 that the sex sector in Thailand accounted for 14% of GDP (but 80% of consumers are Thai).
So, this would lead to think that sex tourism accounts for another 5% of GDP (since foreigners overpay).

Indirect income from tourism (souvenir stalls, taxis, restaurants, etc.) could be another 50% of afore mentioned direct income.

So, in total, tourism makes about 10% of "legal" GDP, plus another 5% from sex tourism.

Now, if both departments drop 50%, that would mean a drop in GDP of 7.5% - huge.


Then you also have to consider what part of the GDP really passes through the hands of the people. I mean, a lot of GDP is generated by huge companies exporting huge quantities of rice, engine parts, CPUs, etc.

This money never sees the hands of the people. Whereas bar fines, tips, taxi money, etc. goes directly in their pocket.


To put everything in perspective, between 1929 and 1933, there was a drop in GDP of "only" about 25%.
For Thailand, 7.5% could be caused by tourism alone!
Add to that less CPUs made for Intel, Toyota and Honda closing plants, rice exports dropping by 40%, and you get a picture.

And I almost forgot the construction sector. Many buildings are not being worked on anymore and a lot of condos and apartments are not selling, even at 40% price reduction.
Many promoters will go tits up, and construction companies won't get paid...


The crisis in US and Europe is not over, quite the contrary. In fact, unemployment figures have *just begun* to reflect a problem. Many companies postponed the layoffs by sending employees home and waiting for better times, but they will be forced to proceed to layoffs eventually.

I have no doubt governments will continue to hide the truth, I am convinced there is a worldwide scheme/plot to bring all developed countries to a "soft landing" scenario.
They want to avaid deflation and inflation at all costs. This means the currencies are totally debased, currency will be provided by central banks as needed to maintain liquidity, and the liquidity will probably be thrown to the (unemployed) masses to keep them consuming.
At the same time, I am convinced there have been talks with the economy to keep prices at their current levels to avoid inflation.

[Snick]

Exactly, when talking about the GDP 6% is a big number (and the real number is higher).

The fact that the real number is unofficial is meaningless, its still money. And the person using that money still goes out and buys things and pays a VAT tax on those items (usually).

Plus tourism is labor intensive, if tourism goes down LOTS of people lose there jobs.

[guydesavoy]

Yesterday $AUD 24.7thb...today, 25.8  

Shit, should have paid her next week