THE FUTURE - what lies ahead for LOS?

[pacman]

One sure way to make yourself look silly is to try predicting the future...

so I won't.

But in view of the destruction of the world financial markets, with most of the damage still to come, it seems appropriate for a little crystal ball gazing. There is no way on earth that Thailand can avoid the fall-out from the economic melt-down set to wipe out many businesses & countries around the globe.

Add to that scenario that Thailand is one of the most politically unstable countries in the world & the stage is set for change. Major change & it won't necessarily be good for LOS or we visitors.

In the past few months I read somewhere that Thailands exports had dropped by over 18% IN ONE MONTH, I'm sure someone will correct me, but that is colossal by any standard. The baht remains stubbornly high, crippling exports, I have been told it is all to do with bringing the economy to its knees to abet support for Thaksin.

The monarch's heirs are not popular, the rival political parties share no common ground, civil unrest is already happening & there is the very real possibility of civil war breaking out in the short to mid term future.

That would stop tourism dead, the hard currency delivered by the holiday makers is the mainstay of the Thai economy, without the crowds & their money, what happens to the Pattaya & Phuket & the rest?

If the bars & hotels started closing, I have been told I can expect 80% of them will go, what can we expect? Hungry locals for a start...

That is all I want to say on that bleak picture because I know lots will wish to shoot the messenger, me      , but if anyone can put the positive side of this, please post it.

And don't forget that none of this takes into account the effect of the economic crisis destroying world trade.

Am I being too pessimistic? Is there a silver lining to this? Will the government look after the tourist scene & nothing will change?

We must all hope that will be the case...      

[TTChang]

According to a quote in the Bangkok Post yesterday, the tipping point for Thailand going into recession was the airport closure. In fact exports were already falling by then, but that was like shooting yourself in the kneecap when you are already lame. Judging by some recent hotel occupancy figures I was given, things look grim at the 4/5* level.  Rooms were available in Pattaya over the Christmas period at a discount.

Most countries are going to suffer badly, and most governments are going to struggle to put together any coherent packages of policies.   But this latest Thai Government was precluded from making any statement of policy yesterday, by the red shirt protest.  Here we go again.

Up until now Thailand has avoided the worst of the credit crunch issues, but despite some optimistic noises, the  real economy is hurting badly.  Major layoffs of labour being seen and being predicted. The Democrats still have to keep The Great Shinawatra at bay, by keeping the TRT/PPP voters content.  And running a coalition government without any crackdown on the basic 'right to protest'.

Any odds on the next airport closure?     ... oops, that's a red shirt protester  

[TTChang]

Correction - the new PM did make the policy address eventually, but not in the Parliament building which was still surrounded.  So the Red shirts are claiming it is not valid.  A 2 hour session took place, instead of a 2 day debate.

..... "Political conflicts that have spread to civic groups could push the economy, along with the tourism industry, into recession if action is not taken quickly to resolve them and revive confidence among investors and foreign tourists," Abhisit said. "These conflicts are the country's weakness, especially at a time the world economy is entering its worst crisis in a century."

Sounds like a fair summary.   But ...  This is Thailand

[Stogie]

Thailand has never made much of an effort to ingratiate itself to the world and has in the past acted like we are lucky to be allowed to write the name down!

I can't see that changing. Despite the impact of the global recession and collapse of the money markets, the Thai's 'solutions' have been unbelievably stupid and short sighted.

But I reckon it won't change too much from last year. Another year, another coup!

Tourism has taken a massive hit this year though and the incredibly myopic 'vision' of the future of Pattaya is a great example.

Despite all the hotels closing down floors and towers and hacking off prices for rooms, the local government, mall investors and condo builders seriously believe that they can evict all the expats and the 1 million Thais who own small businesses and make it an 'upscale resort!'

NEVER GONNA HAPPEN!

But it's Thailand... Just enjoy the ride, boys!

[seamus]

You should change your name to Nostradamus, Paccie
Lets face it, it's going to be bad world over, only the strong survive, will be interesting to see who the strong are these days. I just hope I can get to LOS at least once this year b4 I lose My house
Good luck to all fellow BM's for the coming year I hope we all get through in one piece

[Snick]

Who knowns !!!

The next few weeks will be interesting, historically the Democrat party has been 'nicer' to the night life industry than Thaksin's TRT/PPP party, if the government closes bars next weekend and the weekend after for elections - then its a pretty good sign that they still don't have a clue. If they don't force a bar closure or make exemptions for tourist areas - then it looks like someone is on the ball.

Pattaya specifically has been under 'attack' with bars being forced to close due to dry days, increased enforcement and LOTS of shakedowns by the cops (noise violations, music license scams, etc...). The "idea" being that Pattaya should be cleaned up and be made into a mid level destination for Russian and Asian tour packages. The fact that Pattaya doesn't offer anything EXCEPT a night life seems to have escaped the attention of those in charge.

But most of the problems facing Thailand are outside their control, exports will fall, not just because the Baht is high but because no one is buying regardless of price, Japanese investment will be way down, etc...

[SukhumvitRoad]

(Stogie @ Dec. 31 2008,12:24) Thailand has never made much of an effort to ingratiate itself to the world and has in the past acted like we are lucky to be allowed to write the name down!

And I'd say the smart money bet would have to be for that attitude toward the rest of the world to strengthen in the near term.

Thailand's historical response to every upheaval has always been the same: to pile another brick on the wall and seal itself off even more completely from the real world. After all, if comparisons can't be made with the external world, then 'the Thai way' will be the best approach to every problem every single time, won't it?

Look out below.......

[rossco]

Well the Thais are pretty resilient. They are not "High End" consumers so imported up market goods are not an issue.

They are a net exporter of food but the current Exchange rate makes their exports expensive.

Interest rates have always been conservative for savers.

The "Night Life" Industry is seeing cracks. There are 8000 bar/entertainment venues in Pattaya City - that is from Sukumvit in the east to Beach Road in the West and from Dolphin roundabout in the North to just South of Pattaya Tai.

My guess, only an opinion, is that many bars will close this year. Most bars operate on a day to day basis and depend on the traditional High Season (November to February) to earn the fat to live on in the lower season. This year no high season.

So cash flow will turn these 'hobby' establishments into loss makers. The real problem is that no one is around to buy these bars when up for sale.

The estimated 'bar worker' population is 80,000 plus people. BUT they are not salaried/tax payers. So most will return to families up country with no burden on the state.

Pattaya seems to think that they can change their image. No more hedonistic flesh seekers but encourage families - the problem with that plan is that there are very few real facilities to entice the family/eco tourist.

So my forecast is less bars and less 'staff' BUT life will continue. For the speculator it is a good time to buy as Tourism will surely recover as Thailand is still good value compared to other destinations. So Thailand will 'dumb down' but not go under.

In many ways a reduction in the number of bars may be a good thing as there are just too many hunting the same dollar.

Profile of visitors is changing too - less Russians and Koreans than last year.

My acid test is availabilty of parking and this festive season I have had no trouble parking pretty much anywhere this year.

Bottom line is that Pattaya revolves around the oldest business, in human terms, and the demand will always be there albeit reduced. Supply will meet that demand.

I do hope the problems of the West become resolved but that is a hurculean task - it will require huge honesty on the part of governments and recognition for the need for sterner regulation in an industry that believed they could con all of the people all of the time.

Just like many BM's this is only an opinion and not a forecast.

Happy 2009

[TiaoLang]

What lies ahead for the LOS

Well, pretty much what has been said above.

So lets look on the positive side;

Less Koreans and Russians in Thailand - hurray.

More shitty bars to close down - fantastic.

Pattaya as a high end eco tourist destination - not a fucking chance. There is more chance that it will snow there first.

Less tourists coming to Thailand - brilliant, cheaper rooms and flights, and less low end arseholes visiting.

The Thai baht 'should' weaken - I am amazed this has not yet happened substantially.

Mmmmmmmm, what are the downsides? I am struggling to think of one. Oh yes - I will be visiting more often this year

Happy New Year.

Tiao

[TiaoLang]

I have just thought of a downside - crime will increase in the tourist areas this year. Locals and ex-pats get desperate for cash, they will resort to means that I find unacceptable. Watch your backs and wallets.

[pacman]

If things do go badly, the increase in crime will be inevitable & the thing that worries me most of all. It won't be much fun fighting off eager bargirls if that results in the  few who have been overlooked once too often, turnng to violence to redress the score.

An empty stomach has no conscience. Just how this plays out will be of utmost importance to the future visits of all of us.

If the price to have someone killed in LOS is 25% of what the going rate was 10 years ago, what implications does that have for our safety?

I don't mean to suggest we are all dead men walking, it's only to highlight just what type of society we are dealing with here. Thais don't think in western terms, when problems arise they rewrite all the rules to arrive at uniquely Thai solutions, but a crisis of this magnitude........

we may find everything we take for granted overturned. Particularly if the camp pushing to close the borders & turn the clock back to when Thailand was just for Thais manages to prevail.

Think I'm kidding? Watch this space....

[jimslim]

(pacman @ Jan. 03 2009,10:12) If the price to have someone killed in LOS is 25% of what the going rate was 10 years ago

Don't tell some people here that , they'll still say we are overpaying

Pacman you worry too much sometimes , apart from a couple of LBs at the New Orn Bar I never heard anyone wanting to murder you last time we met

[pacman]

Yes Jim, it does read like I'm scared to death, but that's just because I love to be melodramatic.

Despite that, I follow the fortunes of my favourite country closely because the place is endlessly fascinating, trying to predict outcomes in LOS is akin to buying lottery tickets.

[sev7en]

(jimslim @ Jan. 03 2009,21:15) Pacman you worry too much sometimes , apart from a couple of LBs at the New Orn Bar I never heard anyone wanting to murder you last time we met  

[Guest]

So guys what about the Thai baht? I am from the UK retiring in October and planning to spend a good part of the year in LOS but the exchange rate is a killer. Do you experts predict a drop in the baht?