Is it different this time?

[Stewart]

I have watched from Singapore over the last few years as Thailand has struggled by, and lurched from one semi-crisis to another.

I have always tried to look beyond the western media crap, and I have visited many, many times and not seen a single problem, even 3 days after the military coup 18 months ago.

This time it seems different.

A sense of lawlessness and 'us and them' has been allowed to (encouraged to?) openly take root, and that is going to be much more difficult to put the lid back on.

Thoughts? Especially from the guys who live there

[jaymee]

I feel the same as well. Previously when "on the ground" per se it was difficult to feel the sense of things even with a coup going on - but to the extent when flights get disrupted I can't help but feel "damn I was at that airport recently and people are now sitting at the taxi area"

Its not just thailand per se but a host of other phenomena which I feel ebbs differently.

[Stogie]

It's much more dangerous this time as the government supporters will soon by having their own protests (ignored by the police) and when the anti-government protesters (ignored by the army) meet up with them it'll spell the end for Thailand as the peace loving democracy-wannabe that we currently enjoy.

By next Easter you won't recognize this country.

I'm usually the one saying "Nothing ever changes here in the LOS!" but this time it will...

[thegame925]

Are you just saying that so that you scare everyone away so that you and your house-mate have all the LBs in Thailand just for yourselves?

[PigDogg]

Things are different this time by an order of magnitude.

The vibe on the street in Pattaya is unchanged though. But the economy is affected. One Pattaya massage shop gave the girls the option of a one week unpaid vacation for the first week in December. With less girls, the customer/girl ratio should stay the same.

[TTChang]

(thegame925 @ Dec. 01 2008,14:45) Are you just saying that so that you scare everyone away so that you and your house-mate have all the LBs in Thailand just for yourselves?

His house mate is in England ...  so it is unbridled selfishness!   But he knows I will be back  ....  rent is due  

[marshal]

I think thailand has steadily changed over the last 8 years, but that is just an observation from a far! This current crisis is a lot more serious than what i have noticed in previous years, for obvious reasons.

[BlueBallz]

I agree with Stogie. This ime things are quite different and there is a huge split in the society. Someone quite close to me has even taken down the Queen's pic in their house. It is rumored that the Queen support the PAD and is bankrolling them. Wish I were there right now.....

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!

[SukhumvitRoad]

Could things get even worse? Sure they could. Thais have no history at all of social violence and are generally passive and ineffectual to a fault; however, one must remember that ethnically these are essential the same folks who gave us the Khmer Rouge and the Pathet Lao.

The Queen unambiguously endorsing the yellow-shirted thugs holding the country to ransom was bad enough but, now that the King has remained steadfastly silent in the face of the worst humiliation ever visited on the country, no one is any longer in any doubt that the wrecking of Thailand has the full support of the Palace. This is the Palace's final push to destroy popularly elected government in Thailand once and for all and to insure that, even when the King dies and his personal prestige is removed from the equation, the Palace will hold the real power in the country regardless of who occupies the throne.

It must have been at least three hundred years since there was another national movement anywhere in the world seeking to end democratic government and reestablish an authoritarian monarchy. Mei pen rai. At long last, Thailand leads the world in something.

[manarak]

ok, some replies in this thread are a bit frightening, especially coming from long term LOS dwellers

personally, I still think "the powers" have a plan.

let's hope the supreme court makes the first step to defuse the situation by dissolving the PPP or TRT or whatever they are called now, and that anticipated elections are called... the results can then be skillfully faked to suit the PAD and "the powers".

although I don't see how the PAD could win after causing this huge loss of face for the whole country.

Maybe another pro-PAD person/party will win?
I see two possibilities:
- Anupong is a candidate
- the speaker of the privy council is a candidate

both should be acceptable for most people.

what do you think?

[mardhi]

Sukhumvit Road is on the money - he understands the game (or at least thats my take).

And its nothing to do with current incumbent but future generations.

Cheers
Mardhi

[jimslim]

The worrying thing about this current situation is the real possibility that it will split the country .

The last military coup was a failure , the people re-elected the same party that had been disposed , isn't it funny how democracy works sometimes

If the army intervene again it could spell a disaster , a half arsed democracy is better than dictatorship .

[marshal]

Apart from the violence, is this a bad thing? I'm not picking a fight or argument, i'm just trying to get the lowdown. It appears judging by thaksins wealth and the amount of straight roads in issan(thaksin's construction company) that corruption is rife, although nothing new and certainly part and package of south east asia. Would it be worse if thailand reverted to an absolute monarchy? is that what's on the agenda?
Obviously with all societies and politics there are going to be two or several schools of thought.

[manarak]

Thaksin's real mistake was probably his intent to undermine the palace's power and to grow hmself into a position powerful enough to take over the power from the palace when the inevitable would happen.

His second mistake is that he probably still believes he can make it.

[mardhi]

In answer to Stewarts original question - yes its serious but actually I dont expect it to be that serious that some are making out. The crux of this is the question of corrupt politicians - just look at Lee Kuan Yews memoirs on this subject. The Thai solution is actually quite similar to what Singapore under LKW - there is a lot to be said that ironically Thailand has shown itself NOT to be ready for democracy (or maybe that should read standing for ones own financial benefit).

The Hi-So's actually want the country to progress just so long as they are in control - if that happens - we may see some much tougher nightlife policies coming in - however the crux has always been that nobody cares so long as its not in your face - so expect less of a visible scene over the coming years and yes I suspect this will happen - the judiciary is already onside as are the military (and forget the police, they have zero power in these circumstances as is so easily seen from ongoing issues at the airport and running away from a bunch of hoods).

Cheers
Mardhi