The TLFs INSIDER TRADER!

[thaibound]

(PigDogg @ May 07 2009,14:32) What I don't like about Citi is that I'm led to believe that the common is overvalued compared to the prefered.

with the predicate that i know nothing, and my advice should be thus valued:

there remains the possibility that Citi will go belly up, be nationalized, succumb to debtors, whatever-- at which point all common stock could be worthless, whereas the preferred, theoretically would retain at least a portion of its value.

call me crazy, but i just don't trust those guys. i fear this economic hurricane has us in its eye for the moment. the problem is, even if i were certain of this -- and i am NOT -- i'm still not sure where to hide. so, in the meantime, try to play the game, leverage what you got, and be ready to go liquid really quickly. personally, i'd love to find a tiny island with a solar generator and a well-stocked cave, staffed by a half-dozen ladyboys who really know how to plow a field.

[Stogie]

(Stogie @ Mar. 20 2009,23:21) 20 March 2009

Who is going up and who is gonna crash and burn?

My tip for the next 12 months is Microsoft.

It opened today at $17.33

Windows 7 (when it happens) will breath new life into this stock and I reckon it will go up to about 25/6/7 maybe more before Google comes along and makes all OS software worthless!

For me this is a buy until the new OS has been out about a year so maybe even up to two years!

It's now over 21 bucks a share. Anyone daft enough to listen to me will have made some moola!

[Snick]

its up 20%, the APPLE that I bought in November is up 30+%

Of course the new Zune isn't out and we all know what a great effect that will have on the Stock.

[Stogie]

Zune won't make any difference... It's rubbish and it's too little to late.

[mirimark]

(Snick @ Mar. 21 2009,10:37) i'm thinking

1/3 small cap index fund  (small caps recover quicker after a pullback)
1/3 commodity fund (copper, etc...., not oil or gold specifically)
1/3 MCSI AAXJ - Asia ex Japan index fund

but now is not the time, there will be at least one more test of the lows

I was considering Gold, I thought it was a safe bet.
Why not Snick ?

I've always thought precious metals was a sure fire bet in bad times. ?

[SukhumvitRoad]

"I am 100% sure that the US will go into hyperinflation. The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the FED should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate." - Marc Faber

Calling for hyperinflation is a bit hysterical, me thinks, but Faber has made a good living for decades being hysterical. They don't call him Dr. Doom for nothing.

Regardless, he's absolutely right about his core premise: you can't print all that money without eventually causing a real inflationary spurt in the USD (if you'll pardon the expression). The medium term trade therefore is to short treasuries, which is easy to do with a widely traded ETF called UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ProShares. The ticker symbol is TBT.

Look here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TBT

[Snick]

(mirimark @ Jun. 01 2009,23:32)

(Snick @ Mar. 21 2009,10:37) i'm thinking

1/3 small cap index fund  (small caps recover quicker after a pullback)
1/3 commodity fund (copper, etc...., not oil or gold specifically)
1/3 MCSI AAXJ - Asia ex Japan index fund

but now is not the time, there will be at least one more test of the lows

I was considering Gold,  I thought it was a safe bet.
Why not Snick ?

  I've always thought precious metals was a sure fire bet in bad times. ?

Problem is when the "bad time" ends, gold could collapse
Most of the value of gold is psychological, Gold is valuable because people think gold is valuable.
Once fear leaves the market gold prices could collapse, and could collapse fast.

I prefer Copper because its a real indicator of improving market activity, if China is making more crap then they need more Copper to make all that crap.

[PigDogg]

(Snick @ Jun. 01 2009,15:16) Gold is valuable because people think gold is valuable.
Once fear leaves the market gold prices could collapse, and could collapse fast.

I prefer Copper because its a real indicator of improving market activity, if China is making more crap then they need more Copper to make all that crap.

I'm also suspicious of gold.

Industrial metals, real estate, oil, agricultural commodities, and water have "real" value.  Gold, like fiat currency, is something that we agree upon now but in the future there might be a new normal.

Many gold vehicles are not actually backed up by real gold which adds a measure of risk,  A fund such as CEF that has the actual bullion sells at a premium to GLD which does not.

Re TBT, I like the concept (betting that interest rates will go up and the dollar will go down) but double inverse funds don't always perform as one would expect in the long run in volataile markets.  Rydex has an unlevered product that might be a better way to play this.

[SukhumvitRoad]

[quote]
(PigDogg @ Jun. 02 2009,10:22)

Re TBT, I like the concept (betting that interest rates will go up and the dollar will go down) but double inverse funds don't always perform as one would expect in the long run in volataile markets.  Rydex has an unlevered product that might be a better way to play this.

Important point. Glad you made it. The leveraged inverse ETFs do sometimes show weird distortions when held for very long due to the daily compounding effect. They're not for the buy and hold guys (are there any left?). On the other hand, as short term trading vehicles, they work a treat, usually, so long as you've guessed right as the direction of the trend

By the way, just for the record, I had a nice TBT position, but traded out of it as soon as rates spiked on Tuesday. If rates fall again by any significant amount, I'll be back in it.

[Stogie]

Microsoft is now 21.73...

30 by Xmas?

[BlueBallz]

Ok I have been thinking about this for a bit. What if we DO end up having hyperinlation. Lets say someone has some wealth like real estate, some invested in stocks but mostly ca$h. How does one protect oneself or are we all just fucked??

[PigDogg]

   In the short term the Fed is more concerned about deflation than inflation.  But for "me" hyperinflation is a more serious personal threat.

Deflation is good for someone sitting on cash.

Hyperinflation is great for someone who owns heavily mortgaged property.

Stocks (some), commodities, real estate, and TIPs are a good hedge against serious inflation though for Zimbabwe style hyperinflation the whole economy collapses so some classic hedges may not work.

Bonds prices go down (and bond yields rise) when interest rates go up or inflation rears its ugly head.

[SukhumvitRoad]

If you think that a serious level of inflation is a real threat (and I agree that it is), you should go out right now and refinance any property you own into new 30 year fixed rate mortgages at current rates. Then take the cash that generates and invest it in a broad range of commodity EFTs -- primarily oil, nat gas, copper, and grains -- and go short Treasuries, also probably through an ETD as discussed above.

[pacman]

(BlueBallz @ Jun. 04 2009,05:12) What if we DO end up having hyperinlation.  Lets say someone has some wealth like real estate, some invested in stocks but mostly ca$h.  How does one protect oneself or are we all just fucked??

How can the US not finish up in a classic case of hyper-inflation is the more relevant question?

There seems to be no doubting where this is all heading according to the majority of financial commentators. Simply a case of history repeating itself.

And don't believe what you hear from the spruikers on CNBC & MSNBC & Bloomberg & other popular business channels that this is a Bull Market rally - they are all part of the government propaganda machine.

I will repeat what I have read several times as one investment option for these troubled times. Rather than buy physical gold, always considered a safe haven & the one real store of wealth, they advocate buying stocks in small-cap gold miners. Ones with proven reserves located in politically safe countries. They advise a look at the total number of shares on issue, too many capital raisings may have greatly diluted the value of each share, plus some due diligence on the directors & the current state of finances of the company.

They are out there & any broker dealing in resource stocks would have his personal recommendations. Perhaps buy on the Toronto Exchange so you get the benefit of a rising rather than falling exchange rate.

I own one such company by default. I bought the stock over 20 years ago & after several name changes & backdoor takeovers, I find myself with script in a large gold deposit in Africa. It is not a stable government but several of the countries top brass are directors so there is a hope that they won't nationalise it.

The good thing about these small cap miners is the multiplier effect of increases in the gold price. Physical gold may increase 10 or 20%. That should see the share price go up 50 to 100%. Or more.

And back down again very fast should the gold price collapse.

But I don't see how the gold price can drop AT THE MOMENT.

A few corrections certainly but with the middle east unstable, with Kim Jong Il acting up, with China buying gold solidly for the past 6 years, it beggars belief that the US dollar will survive unscathed & gold will fall off the chart.

But I am not prepared to say this is foolproof, it is repeated advice that sounds OK but should be weighed up very carefully before doing anything about it.

[SukhumvitRoad]

(SukhumvitRoad @ Jun. 04 2009,06:57) ...and go short Treasuries, also probably through an ETD as discussed above.

Uh...sorry about that. I meant ETF, of course. Fat fingers, small keys.