The TLFs INSIDER TRADER!

[JaiDee]

(PigDogg @ Apr. 14 2009,05:30) Looks like I pulled the plug on Citi too quick.

Based on the after hours price of 3.93 I'd be up about 200%  

ya  gotta  buy and hold these days  PD

   C  reached  4.10 at one point yesterday, I am holding on to my shares until they get back into the 30's

    chew on this one;  FIG

  Fortress investment group..... at one time the only hedge fun in the market, they zoomed to 35 bucks per share at their IPO in spring, 2007 ....  now a bargain at around 2.50, if they can fend off bankruptcy and get through this low point  there's no reason they shouldn't be at 10++ by years end.

     GE looking good, as always

  But like my financial planner tells me, let the 401K fund pick the stocks;  that's what they are paid to do and they have pretty good pickings right now with the blue chips and tech stocks all at historic lows.  The money I do play around with for FIG and C and X {US Steel} is outside the 401k and a minimal part of overall portfolio.

[thaibound]

the following opinions are those of a rank amateur who has only managed to accidentally profit through investments and should therefore be completely ignored. not to mention it's long, boring, and somewhat disagreeable, so just skip to the next post.

-do NOT "buy and hold". there is *no* stock i know of which i would feel comfortable holding forever. none. i might hold it relatively long-term, yes. but things change. name your 5 favorite 'buy and hold' stocks then look at what they did over the last nine months. if you had sold when the charts and/or fundamentals suggested, took some profits as they soared up from 2001-2007 and re-diversified into down-trodden sectors and then bought back in small increments as the major market crash slowed, you'd be way ahead. instead of down 40% with the market.

- GE. GE? i've lost 67% of the money i put into GE (see "do not buy and hold"). they are at heart a financial company now. if they move up a little more i'm going to start dumping what i have left at around 12, before the 'credit card crisis' replaces the 'banking crisis' and i can buy back in at 8.

- the financials are great short-term trades right now (buy on dips, sell on bumps), but they are damn poor long-term investments. you're kidding yourself if you think the worldwide financial mess is over. wait til the commercial real estate mortgages start floating to the top like dead fish. watch the REIT's crash. home builders will have to stop making homes in the usa altogether for an entire year before supply and demand levels out. and like it or not, as goes the usa, so goes the world. at least until all the credit card debt of obese america turns toxic and western civilization gets a wake-up call.

- then things will change. but not for a few years. 'emerging markets' have yet to 'emerge'. when they do they won't be called 'emerging markets' anymore. meantime be careful out there. own commodities. 20-35% of your portfolio. not just gold, but also copper, silver, platinum, a little oil (or own the mining/energy stocks behind them -- but do research on *which* stocks -- mainly check their balance sheets. if they've got a lot of debt, stay clear).

-MSFT - old softie -- yeah i lost money on that one too. though recently i did well with a buy on dip/sell on bump trade. msft is just going to be boring for a long time. they have more cash than half the countries on the planet, so no fear they'll go belly up, they're just so damn big they won't move up either. their dividend doesn't suck right now, so i'd call it a 'hold'. though i prefer intc with it's slightly higher dividend. and even apple, though it's selling at a premium right now, their products are way more sexy and sell at a much higher margin. so long as people buy things anyway...

-i love small plays with stocks like pigdog's suggestion of kdus, but i'd be *very* careful there. that otc stock trades so thin you could lose 20% the first hour you own the thing. fortunately for me, the order i placed at 1.50 yesterday didn't execute so i don't own it at 1.36 today. actually, i haven't checked the price in an hour. maybe it's at 2. or 1. if you think icahn is still a genius, you might want to buy it. but don't be fooled into thinking that if he makes money on the stock, you'll make money on it. just look at the premium warren buffet got when he bought into the banks. made the deal the us government made look like shit.

- i now favor almost exclusively high-dividend stocks. i like MO and PM and EIX and DUK. i don't expect them to climb much, but then i can't rely on any stocks to climb much in the next year -- except for the unpredictable and very risky sectors (alternative energy, bio-tech, financials) which i'm too chicken (or too old) to fuck around with any more. so i'll take my 5% dividends and sit tight. i still think 25-35% cash right now ain't a bad thing.

-and nibble on the dips. don't gulp. just nibble. and *never* regret selling at a profit. if you can't be happy with 110% because you coulda made 200%, then you just can't be happy.

but i'm only guessing. and i'm willing to admit it.

[JaiDee]

(thaibound @ Apr. 16 2009,01:10) so i'll take my 5% dividends and sit tight.

funny, the guy who started this thread used to always preach this, and now he wants to own Microsoft LOL

GE....yes, down a ton now.....which means it's time to buy it, no? Fuck, same as Citi it seems like they just HAVE to come back st some point!

I am with your last part though, I am done with stocks in general after my portfolio got hit for 40% + last year ..... and the small amount I have on the side playing with this nonsense mentioned above isn't enough to kill me. So after [hopefully???] the 401K comes back and I see some decent returns on this e-trade shit, I am switching to all safe bonds at 5% and just letting it sit there for life.

I always say to myself when I hear other peoples' stories.... "it could be worse". some people got bombed for a lot more than I did last year and I haven't been laid off or had to touch cash reserves so things aren't all that bad, really.

[thaibound]

(JaiDee @ Apr. 15 2009,13:50)

(thaibound @ Apr. 16 2009,01:10) so i'll take my 5% dividends and sit tight.

funny, the guy who started this thread used to always preach this, and now he wants to own Microsoft LOL

GE....yes, down a ton now.....which means it's time to buy it, no? Fuck, same as Citi it seems like they just HAVE to come back st some point!

MSFT is paying a dividend of 2.76% as of close today. of course it also fell 2.69% today, so i guess that works out to a dividend of 0.07%. though tomorrow it'll *probably* bounce back. and forth. forever.

and i used to agree with you about stocks inevitably rebounding. i even once said "either the market will go up, or the world will end". and maybe that's still true. but now that "some point" you're looking for has leaped from a few years away to a few decades away. remember the nasdaq above 5000 just nine years ago? it might get back there in our lifetime. then again...

remember GM?

[PigDogg]

(thaibound @ Apr. 15 2009,10:10) -i love small plays with stocks like pigdog's suggestion of kdus, but i'd be *very* careful there. that otc stock trades so thin you could lose 20% the first hour you own the thing. fortunately for me, the order i placed at 1.50 yesterday didn't execute so i don't own it at 1.36 today. actually, i haven't checked the price in an hour. maybe it's at 2. or 1. if you think icahn is still a genius, you might want to buy it.

The way to buy KDUS is to put in a limit order at 1.35 or less and hope for the best.

The idea here is that the share price is about 75% of the cash per share and the company has no debt.  This is MUCH better than 75% of book value.

So you're buying cash at a 25% discount.

But it's not a quick kill.  the company will either acquire or be acquired. It's a shell company with no operations or earnings.

It's a buy and hold, you have to wait and wait and wait but there's a big cash cushion for downside protection.

[PigDogg]

For those interested in Citi......

HEARD ON THE STREET APRIL 16, 2009 Two Options Beat Owning Citi's Stock
By JOHN JANNARONE
Citigroup shares are bouncing wildly on the back of a set of complex trades. Is there still a sensible way to bet on the bank's fundamentals?

Citigroup's offer to convert preferred shares stands to quadruple the common shares outstanding. But rather than reflect that offer's dilutive impact, the common shares have leapt, partly because of a powerful "short squeeze."


Heard On The Street's John Jannorone explains the technical factors affecting the movement of Citigroup's shares, both preferred and common, to WSJ's Dennis Berman.

Under the offer terms, preferred holders could short the common stock and lock in a likely profit. But a lack of shares available to borrow has triggered the squeeze that helped the stock more than triple since early March.

For investors still keen to bet on Citigroup, there are cheaper alternatives than buying the shares at $3.97, where they closed Wednesday. Investors can replicate a long position using the options market for a more attractive $3 a share: buying Citigroup call options (which allow an investor to buy shares at a set price in the future) and selling put options (which give another investor a right to sell to you at a set price).

Using June options with a $5 strike price, investors can buy the call for $0.50 and sell the put for $2.50, generating $2 in upfront proceeds. That creates an implied purchase price of $3 whether the stock rises or falls.

Another option is simply buying the Series AA preferred, which closed at $19.74. Investors can expect to receive 7.3 common shares per preferred, implying a cost basis of $2.70 a common share.

Of course, the exchange offer could yet face hurdles, so preferred shares are a riskier bet. An options position should offer ample excitement, particularly with Citigroup releasing its earnings statement on Friday.

Write to John Jannarone at [email protected]

[PigDogg]

Nice surprise to wake up today and find that VE, my largest stock position, is up 9%.

VE is the leader in the worldwide water purification space.

[PigDogg]

Citi will be rocking and rolling today due to favorable earnings.

[manarak]

many mining stocks seem to recover.

my top runners so far are
lynas
perseus

uranium seems to come back too.
I observe UUU

[Stogie]

This is turning into a very thought provoking thread. Thaibound reveals a secret side of himself that we didn't know about!

I won't be making any decisions till June but if I can get 5% fixed rate bond (4.3 available now) I may just sit on that and watch the world turn.

I still like Microsoft to buy from the launch of Windows 7... and hold for 18 months top 2 years.

[Tomcat]

(manarak @ Apr. 17 2009,19:23) many mining stocks seem to recover.
Uranium seems to come back too.
I observe UUU

Well spotted,

the reason for this is that as far as China is concerned , Metals are the new currency fro them . This makes sense with  the printing presses rolling in the west it seems that metals are the safest and surest thing

Even though copper use is down the price is rising as the Chinese are buying up stock of all metals as its pretty obvious that prod has peaked. They figure that rather than buy US Bonds its better to buy into the known future..that all metals will rise as most have peaked as far as reserves are known

Many Hybrid Cars will be made in China and thats one reason that they are starting to hoard...

Lithium Batteries and Fuel cells will be big production and the race to get the precious metals has started

[SukhumvitRoad]

(PigDogg @ Apr. 17 2009,19:10) Citi will be rocking and rolling today due to favorable earnings.  

C was down nearly 9% at the close. Is that a rock or a roll?

[SukhumvitRoad]

(Tomcat @ Apr. 17 2009,21:17)

(manarak @ Apr. 17 2009,19:23) many mining stocks seem to recover.
Uranium seems to come back too.
I observe UUU

Well spotted,

the reason for this is that as far as China is concerned , Metals are the new currency fro them . This makes sense with  the printing presses rolling in the west it seems that metals are the safest and surest thing

Even though copper use is down the price is rising as the Chinese are buying up stock of all metals as its pretty obvious that prod has peaked. They figure that rather than buy US Bonds its better to buy into the known future..that all metals will rise as most have peaked as far as reserves are known

Many Hybrid Cars will be made in China and thats one reason that they are starting to hoard...

Lithium Batteries  and Fuel cells will be big production and the race to get the precious metals has started

The consensus, however, seems to be that copper prices are being artificially propped up by China rebuilding its stocks. When China is done, which should be sooner rather than later, copper prices are likely to drop sharply, getting hammered simultaneously by the removal of the restocking prop and the general reduction in world economic activity. A trade maybe, but don't fall in love. I'd either get out soon or keep a really tight stop.

[PigDogg]

(SukhumvitRoad @ Apr. 17 2009,13:36) C was down nearly 9% at the close. Is that a rock or a roll?

  Maybe a sinking rock in the sewer at 53rd and 3rd, Citi headquarters and Ramones tune about a corner where gay hustlers hung out before the building was erected.

It was way up in pre-market trading, to around $3.40.  Then right before 9:30 it started dropping it started dropping in pre-market.

But at the opening bell it went up a bit and was an opportunity to sell for a slight profit that day assuming one's order could get executed.

I guess big operations like Citi are very complicated entities and it's tough to make an instant call on an earnings announcement.

I was out at $2.80 so I'm now just a spectator on this one.

[manarak]

(SukhumvitRoad @ Apr. 18 2009,04:40)

(Tomcat @ Apr. 17 2009,21:17)

(manarak @ Apr. 17 2009,19:23) many mining stocks seem to recover.
Uranium seems to come back too.
I observe UUU

Well spotted,

the reason for this is that as far as China is concerned , Metals are the new currency fro them . This makes sense with  the printing presses rolling in the west it seems that metals are the safest and surest thing

Even though copper use is down the price is rising as the Chinese are buying up stock of all metals as its pretty obvious that prod has peaked. They figure that rather than buy US Bonds its better to buy into the known future..that all metals will rise as most have peaked as far as reserves are known

Many Hybrid Cars will be made in China and thats one reason that they are starting to hoard...

Lithium Batteries  and Fuel cells will be big production and the race to get the precious metals has started

The consensus, however, seems to be that copper prices are being artificially propped up by China rebuilding its stocks. When China is done, which should be sooner rather than later, copper prices are likely to drop sharply, getting hammered simultaneously by the removal of the restocking prop and the general reduction in world economic activity. A trade maybe, but don't fall in love. I'd either get out soon or keep a really tight stop.

no copper in my shares...