Black Friday tonight possible?

[katoeylover]

MARKET DATA - 22:50 UK

FTSE 100 3861.39 down -218.20 -5.35%
Dax 4622.81 down -238.82 -4.91%
Cac 40 3181.00 down -200.07 -5.92%
Dow Jones 8979.26 up 401.35 4.68%
Nasdaq 1717.71 up 89.38 5.49%
BBC Global 30 4591.29 up 71.52 1.58%

[PigDogg]

Google and IBM announced good earnings after the bell.

But the market took off a couple hours before.

Maybe someone knew something?

[azza33]

Short term - so you admit to becoming a speculator!

It is the short term ism that has caused the madness!

NO SHARE is worth 30 years net earnings - period. Now get real. If a company performs well it should pay a dividend to those who took the time and the interest to invest in the first place.

Short term is fine!
Speculators provide market liquidity and and are not inherently bad for the industry.

PE 30x is fine for a share~ Sorry to get technical but investor are advised on acquisitions and future profit outlook. Thus 30x PE multiples are fine in the shorter term when a business is either rapidly expanding in a new field, has a technology break through or perhaps makes solid acquisitions.

You can't claim that you would prefer the other option and have zero disclosure and then when profit figures are released - oh by the way we are up 40% this year and purchased a couple of new business units...

This would lead to a highly unfair market where people are ill informed and selling shares without full knowledge of how their company is tracking.

Continuous disclosure laws are vital and will lead to 30x earnings from time to time.
- this is not bad for a handful of shares, across the market as a whole, of course it madness!


Now back to speculators, they are fine... There are hedge funds who understand the banking covenants behind the finance for individual companies and they deliberately short the share to drive the price downwards and try and trigger a breach and to further the collapses - this is plain wrong!!
Personally i believe this should be outlawed and hedge funds who take part in this activity should have their assets stripped and returned to the companies!

Speculation did not cause the housing mess either!

That was President Clinton and his cronies that decided the poorer part of society should be housed.
The plan was born to finance these less than ideal candidates.
Debt was sold off and securitised as CDOs. Synthetic CDO markets were established using CDS positions... and so on.
Everyone suddenly forgot that their is a business cycle out there, earning do drop, people don't always pay their bills, defaults happen, unemployment does rise and well the rest is history.

To me this is not speculation - its just sheer stupidity, ignorance and failure to respect history!

As i have written once before, in the chase for corporate profit growth, sales has overpowered risk within financial institutions - this is the reason why we are in the mess we are in.

[terryw]

Although I agree with your analysis of the mess that we are in previous posts are missing a vital factor about how we get out of this mess.

The looming recession coincides with the end of a political cycle with elections looming in the USA, UK and Germany. This political instability distorts the stock market because whatever plan of action the current governments try to implement everybody knows that after an election a new government will throw it in the bin and start again.

Sarkozy in France who still has a 5 year mandate is attempting to reform the French economy but faces opposition from vested Trade Union interests.

New governments in the USA, UK and Germany must implement plans to reform their economies to compete with the BRIC economies.

My fear is that we are heading for a period of mild socialism with heavy regulation of the banks and stock markets which will make the major western economies even more uncompetitive.

[azza33]

Terryw...

I've not once written about how we get out of this mess, just commentary on the mess.

The reason being is i don't believe heavily in government intervention.


Western mentally is all about the cure of the symptoms....

Eastern thinking is about curing what caused the symptoms....


A recession or depression is the economy naturally adjusting to mend the previous excesses... it is NOT the problem.

If we stop the mending process occurring, then next time it only magnifies the problems in the next cycle as the economy has not returned to equilibrium.

We only perceive it to be a problem because jobs are lost and personal hardship is endured.

Should i go on ...

[jaymee]

Ok. A Jaymee update:

Short term of within 3-4 weeks,
Dow will head towards 7200.
Hang Seng will hit 9000.

Dead cats do bounce though and they will do so in the same time frame.

[jaymee]

Jaymee's quote of the day: "Can a dead cat bounce?"

[jaymee]

A possibly dark day again. On track to 7200.

Mini Dow $5 futures -> - 509

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1560,00.html

[Tomcat]

The pound just hit 1.55 against the Dollar...and dropping

This is going to be a bad shit day for me. I know Industrial Companies that now refuse to even print a price list.... when did you last hear this..

Its all bad news

[PigDogg]

Japan closed down 9.6%.

Germany and France down over 7% at this time. Bright spot is London, only down 6%.

[azza33]

Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was limited to stop contracts from dropping, following declines of more than 6 percent.



This panic is interesting to watch~~

[azza33]

I may be a retard but i am purchasing shares just now.

Am i going near blue chip stock~~ not a chance, this stuff is getting pulverized.

I'm picking up good low cap stocks with price to book ratio down at 0.3-0.4 level
And price/earnings multiples between 2-7.
And fully taxed dividend yields of 10+%.

Am i doing the right thing? Who really knows?  

But it feels like i'm getting a bargain.  

[Stogie]

I get all my checks in dollars and they get sent to the UK. This is great news for me.

[azza33]

There may not be much of the UK left soon to worry about Stogie

[jaymee]

(azza33 @ Oct. 24 2008,17:44) I may be a retard but i am purchasing shares just now.

Am i going near blue chip stock~~ not a chance, this stuff is getting pulverized.

I'm picking up good low cap stocks with price to book ratio down at 0.3-0.4 level
And price/earnings multiples between 2-7.
And fully taxed dividend yields of 10+%.

Am i doing the right thing? Who really knows?  

But it feels like i'm getting a bargain.  

Don't buy yet! It would be a waste of capital! But really...

Get some really bluest of the blue Hang Seng "H-shares"

Those have the best odds for multi-baggers when the dust clears.