Flying by Air- the carbon footprint

[Tomcat]

(Road Runner @ Feb. 14 2007,01:53) In the event that the balance of forces were affected and the Gulf Stream flow was permanently changed by just a few percent it's effect WILL be felt all around the world.

I agree 100%

Please read this post Grunyen. Well done RR .

[Tomcat]

new scientist- from there website
want more evidence, well here it is

http://info.newscientist.com/article...1&jlnk=csl0110



Climate change is with us. A decade ago, it was conjecture. Now the future is unfolding before our eyes. Canada's Inuit see it in disappearing Arctic ice and permafrost. The shantytown dwellers of Latin America and Southern Asia see it in lethal storms and floods. Europeans see it in disappearing glaciers, forest fires and fatal heat waves.

Scientists see it in tree rings, ancient coral and bubbles trapped in ice cores. These reveal that the world has not been as warm as it is now for a millennium or more. The three warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998; 19 of the warmest 20 since 1980. And Earth has probably never warmed as fast as in the past 30 years - a period when natural influences on global temperatures, such as solar cycles and volcanoes should have cooled us down. Studies of the thermal inertia of the oceans suggest that there is more warming in the pipeline.

Climatologists reporting for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say we are seeing global warming caused by human activities and there are growing fears of feedbacks that will accelerate this warming.

[rxpharm]

Actually Sangabriel has encapsulated this debate - the opinions are expert being debated by laymen.

It is clear that some people prefer to imagine that the idea of climate change or "global warming" is some huge conspiracy aimed at "controlling" people.

Others will examine the discussions and accept them and decide there needs to be some sort of action taken.

Others will reject the discussions and theories for whatever reason they feel justified in - whether it is a conspiracy theory, or whether they have rationalized climate has changed in the past without human effects, why should it now?

Well, I am not an expert either, but regardless of whether or not we believe in climate change or not, certainly we agree that pollution is a problem. I am also certain this is well accepted by people on both sides of the debate. So, if this is a problem, what is the big deal in adding in trying to reduce carbon emissions as part of the pollution reduction that we all know is necessary?

Certainly if the climate change global warming opponents are wrong there is a gigantic price to pay if no action is taken at all. On the other hand if they are right, and the action is taken there are no huge consequences, except we will have a cleaner planet.

The idea that technology will solve all our problems is somewhat simplistic. Problems can be only changed by societal recognition it exists, and societal acceptance of a solution that hopefully works. Technology can only be a tool of the solution process, not the solution itself.

I personally think there is something to this global warming/climate change debate, and certainly taking some actions to do something positive about it in combination with pollution reduction of all kinds I feel is beneficial for all of us.

Also of course we cannot forget the reason why we are here in the first place, we love lbs!

[Guest]

This is a chart of temperatures of the earth over the period of human civilization. This goes back 12,000 years. For reference, the Sumerians were inventing glue about 7,000 years ago.

These temperatures, as color coded, are from 8 different sources (tree rings, ice cores, etc.). Be sure to note that the scale is backwards, most recent on the left, 12,000 years ago to the right.

Notice a few things:

1. Notice the wild variation in temperature in the sources. How do you accurately say "this was the temperature of the earth at this year".

2. Note that the earth has been both much colder, and much warmer, all during times when man lived in societies.

3. Note that during much of that time, man was not driving SUV's or working in factories.

[Road Runner]

(grunyen @ Feb. 14 2007,22:05) For reference, the Sumerians were inventing glue about 7,000 years ago.

So we can blame the 0.25 degree fall in temperature over the last 7000 years on the Sumerians?  

Notice the wild variation in temperature in the sources. How do you accurately say "this was the temperature of the earth at this year".

The variations are what makes it so difficult to confirm what is happening either way.  As far as I am aware  -  nearly all the experts agree that the trend over the last 100 years is upwards.  What they do not agree on is if it is accelerating or why.  From what I have seen/read the majority believe that the rate is increasing and that man is probably  responsible for some of this increase.

OK this could easily be just a 'normal' fluctuation and may have nothing to to with the fact that man has burned many billions of tonnes of coal and oil in the last 100 years and has cut down roughly 50% of the world's forests in the same time.


If you look at the small chart superimposed on the big one you will see that about 600 years ago there was a 'normal' fluctuation.  This was nothing to do with man  -  it was in fact caused by the after effects of 2 or 3 very large volcanic erruptions.  The ash and pumice thrown into the atmosphere blanked out a large proportion of the suns rays and caused a temperature drop of 3-4 degrees Celcius for several years.

The 14th century was a period of extreme weather with prolonged droughts, strong winds and violent thunder and hailstorms. Due to failed crops huge numbers of people died of starvation. There were explosions in the populations of rats and other pests as often their natural predators had been killed by the extreme conditions.  The combination of malnutrition and the increase of carriers of diseases caused several plagues to rage around the world.

Remember this was a 'normal' temperature variation  -  not caused by the efforts of man.


I am sure that some of you are convinced that this is all hype  -  influenced by the funding source that provides the money for the research.  I always have a good laugh at those sort of comments.

Yes I know this happens and to quite a wide extent around the world.  But please explain to me why so many of these findings go against the interests of the big businesses that provide most of the tax money that funds the research. I think that is called biting the hand that feeds you.

RR.

[Guest]

(Road Runner @ Feb. 15 2007,09:38) As far as I am aware  -  nearly all the experts agree that the trend over the last 100 years is upwards.  

Every global warming guru should read the hysteria-mongering below and STFU.

The damn weather lady cannot tell anyone accurately if it will rain in 10 days. But the forecast for global warming is "fact" and "reality"?

This global warming gibberish is religion, pure and simple. Everyone should keep their nature worship, Druidism and faith in Al Gore's pseudoscience to them damn selves.


Prospects of Another Glacial Period: Geologists Think the World May Be Frozen Up Again, New York Times, February 24, 1895


Sees Glacial Era Coming: Prof. Schmidt Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age, New York Times, October 7, 1912


Penguin Startles France: Bird, Probably from Shackleton Ship, Seen as Ice-Age Harbinger, New York Times, September 20, 1922


Menace of New Ice Age to be Tested by Scientists, New York Times, June 10, 1923


MacMillan Sails North: Explorer Hopes to Determine Whether New "Ice Age" is Coming, New York Times, July 4, 1923


This Cold, Cold World: Science Takes a Look at the Weather, The Atlantic, December 1932


Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age, Washington Post, January 11, 1970


Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age, Science Digest, February 1973

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html ]
Another Ice Age? Time, June 24, 1974  [/URL]


"There seems little doubt that the present period of unusual warmth will eventually give way to a time of colder climate." New York Times, January 19, 1975


Climate Change: Chilling Possibilities, Science News, March 1, 1975

http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf ]
Our Cooling World, Newsweek, April 28, 1975[/URL]


Scientists Ask Why World Climate is Changing: Major Cooling May Be Ahead, New York Times, May 21, 1975


Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages, Science, December 10, 1976

[PigDogg]

Men of 1807 traveled at about the same speed as the Romans.  

In 1900 there were no airplanes and we couldn't go to the LOS a few times a year.  In 1970 men walked on the moon.

There are unforseen consequences to the pills we take, the food we eat, and carbon emissions.

Maybe as in the movie Sleeper, we'll find out in the future that cigarette smoking is good for you but don't bet on it.  Same same with the polution of our environment.

[donnnnnny]

Personally i feel we really dont know. but fuck it, the most interesting thread on the forum

[Torurot]

EO Newsroom: New Images - 2006 Fifth-Warmest Year on Record

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroo....d=17553

[Road Runner]

(PigDogg @ Feb. 15 2007,05:17) Men of 1807 traveled at about the same speed as the Romans.

That reminds me of something I saw a few years ago about the speed of traffic in London.

I don't remember the figures exactly but it went something like - in 1890 when horses were the main means of transport the average traffic speed was 8.3 mph. In 1990 when it was the car the average speed was 8.8 mph.

There is one tangible improvement - all those horses dumped 5000 tonnes of s*#t onto the streets every day!

RR.

[Tomcat]

These are the bare facts of the IPCC report which is the best and recent evidence there is of global climate change. Even the US Govt agree... they were a participant in the IPCC.

0.013 C; the amount that the atmosphere is warming each decade. If one thinks thats small then think again. Even a minute change causes havoc and some regions are  effected much worse than others. By the end of the century a 5 degree rise by then will probably mean catastrophe. I wont be here to enjoy it , or as Marcus Chowns new book puts it " the never ending days of being dead"

1.3 times a much Co2 entering the atmos compared with 20 years ago

3 kilometres - the depth to which the oceans have warmed.

3.1 centimetres. the rise in sea level each decade

the unexpected
Of course at some stage another big comet or similar will smash into earth which could plunge us back into another ice age which is where i think some get previous figures of climate change.. ...

[Guest]

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
These are the bare facts of the IPCC report which is the best and recent evidence there is of global climate change. Even the US Govt agree...

Did they get this information from George Tenet or Bill Clinton, because both also agreed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction?...

"Hi, I'm Tomcat, you can trust me, I'm from the US Govt"

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
0.013 C; the amount that the atmosphere is warming each decade. If one thinks thats small then think again. Even a minute change causes havoc and some regions are  effected much worse than others. By the end of the century a 5 degree rise by then will probably mean catastrophe.

... (0.013 C per decade) x (10 decades) = 0.13 C

Hmmm... how does this equal a 5 degree rise by the end of the century?

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
1.3 times a much Co2 entering the atmos compared with 20 years ago

If tree-people aspired to credibility, they would include the confidence interval for these measurements, which are not exact, they are estimates, and I bet the margin of error on those measurements is not insignificant. Of course, tree-people don't know and don't care to ask, because the faithful do not question gospel.

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
3 kilometres - the depth to which the oceans have warmed.

Don't piss in the sink then...

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
3.1 centimetres. the rise in sea level each decade

How many decades has this been measured for? I bet this is a really reliable figure.

(Tomcat @ Feb. 15 2007,21:42)
Of course at some stage another big comet or similar will smash into earth which could plunge us back into another ice age which is where i think some get previous figures of climate change.. ...

Please. You tree-huggers need to stop having panic attacks about global warming and start worrying about the human tree. Long before global warming becomes a problem, western civilization will be far into the largest voluntary extinction of all time. And Europe is leading the totally voluntary, massive self-cull due to falling birth rates below that needed to even keep the population level.

Falling birth rates are going to cure any possible human contribution to global warming, and short of that, I am sure a Muslim jihadist will be happy to drop the nuclear curtain on the civilized world and bring on a nuclear winter.

[stogie bear]

I'm with grunyen... mainly because of the hilarious iPod analogy!

It's a mite churlish to think that humans are NOT having an impact on the planet, but I'm still never gonna be convinced that the planet is 'warming' because of us. If seas are rising it's not because the cows are farting or the Chinese have dashed out to Circuit city and bought a fridge!

Dragging jet liners around runways by a hoist welded onto a pickup truck is NOT going to save us.

Scientists bankrolled by corporate greenies do NOT word the truth of their findings as factual science. It's all spin depending on how you want the results to be percieved by the tabloid reading idiots that vote.

Why is all this "science" so hush hush and secretive and re-worded and released in parts and re-written by publicists? What happened to plain scientific indisputable facts?

I love the idea of these wind farms. brilliant... but the public are conned into thinking that because it's "green" it should cost a lot! Wind farms and solar panels and ocean wave energy should be giving every man woman and child enough electric for free for life!

But is it? Of course it isn't... Somehow the spinners have convinced us that gas and coal is actually a bargain in comparison!

Well - you can read all you want and believe as hard as you like, but in nearly 50 years of swimming in the Solent in haven't noticed a thing. And even if the tide rose a foot it wouldn't make diddly squat difference to anyone.

The earth isn't flat... It can be proven beyond a doubt by a child. That the sea levels and global warmings can be directly attributable to human behaviour cannot be proven by anyone, at leatst not to me.

Scientists are just a bunch of village idiots who can't use a knife and fork properly. It's guess work.

[vangough05]

The debate is also heating up down here.   We have an Election due this year and now the Labor Party has a new leader.

All of a sudden the whole fucking country is going green and tree hugging.

Even our fearless leader little Johnnie Howard has suddenly changed his tune and now believes that Chicken Little is correct and we are fucked or ceratinly about to be fucked before Election 2007 in October.

It is very interesting to note that in the polls John Howard is trailing in the Labor and Green Party strong holds and is also trailing badly in the demographic of 18 to 25 year olds.

Australia has 42 year low record unemployment, our stock market is flying, our superanuation rates are hovering around 18% annual returns, and suddenly the Greens and the Left are telling everybody to pull our heads out of our butts and start worrying about the sky falling in.

The Western World has certainly lifted its game over the last 10 years and scare mongering the uneductaed and the young is not the answer.

I ain't got the answers thats why i don't run for politics, but do you think thoses guys and the so called educated have the answers, mmm I don't think so.

Just my opinion. And yes i do drive a car on gas, i do have a water tank, yes i do employ water saving devcies, yes i do grow my own pesticide free fruit and veg, yes i do compost, yes i do worry about the shit we do.

Do i believe most of the stuff i read. NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tomcat]

On average, China opens a new coal fired power plant every 10 days. And i would think that India and Brazil cannot be far behind.  

Around 350 million chinese farmers rely on the receding glacial ice in the surrounding area that indirectly feed some main rivers in China.... these guys are going to have a big problem.