Nana Plaza has got five years left, tops...

[stogie bear]

I'm with doug and jaidete on this, but it's all just mostly guess work.

[Tomcat]

All things come to pass, and there isnt fuck all we can do about it.
I suppose it would be interesting to ponder where the exodus of the poleswingers would gravitate to.... Maybe Soi Cowboy

[bohemia]

I have been around the scene since the days when Pattaya was a beach with a few hotels(late 60's) I have seen the nightlife scene go through evolutions but one thing has been constant--growth. There are more knuckleheads walking around today looking for cheap and plentiful sex than ever. I don't see much decline taking place. As is the Thai way, nothing is maintained, so Nana Plaza will rot until it falls down, catches fire, or is turned into something else. The Sikhs who own the property are not caught up in Buddhist values or even Thai politics. Nana is a cash cow for many, including the police. So things will shift around and the ONLY thing that will kill Thailand as a nightlife paradise is inflation and the appearance of a cheaper alternative. It probably won't happen. Asoke Plaza, Clinton Plaza, Soi 10 are examples of real estate interests that prevailed(except soi 10 which was made into a park to make a massage czar look respectable so he could run for political office). But so much has just moved to the street. There is a 19 soi length of sidewalk that is afterhours bar and cruising area that did not exist before. So venues change but the airport is already stretched to capacity.

[mardhi]

(doug @ Mar. 10 2008,19:36)

(stogie bear @ Mar. 08 2008,19:10) Cambodia... The NEW Land Of Smiles!  

That's almost certainly going to be true within 10 to 20 years.  

And with the baht soaring against the dollar, that only hastens the transition.

For us locals, a 1500baht ST five years ago is a 1500baht ST today, same as always.  But for a tourist, a  $34 ST five years ago has gone up to a $48 ST today.

Still cheap, but when you consider that everything else has gone up as well (hotels, cab fares, dining out, etc...), ALL tourists, including sex-tourists are going to find Thailand a more expensive destination.

Which is fine.  Plenty of places (like Hong Kong and Tokyo) are expensive, but they still attract loads of tourists.  Just a different KIND of tourist.

People looking for cheap holidays are going to have to start looking elsewhere, because the Thai baht isn't likely to go down against the dollar any time soon (especially if the US recession drags out).

Take a look at what's happening out on many of the islands.  Many of the cheap backpacker beach bungalows have upgraded to resorts and spas that charge 3000 baht a night or more.

So the kind of guys who want to pay $30 to $50 for a fuck are not going to want to shell out $200 to $400 a night for hotel rooms, food and taxis, and as the baht continues to rise against the dollar, that's what your per diem is going to be in Bangkok pretty soon.

Thai businessmen know this, they aren't dumb.

So people are taking a look at shitholes like Nana and saying to themselves, "that area is going to dry up soon".  So they are slowly but surely buying up property around those areas and opening clubs, restaurants and businesses that will appeal to the NEW KIND of tourist who can afford spending half-a-G every day when they are on holiday.

The sex industry will remain in Thailand, of course.  At the very least, us locals will keep it going, because like I said OUR costs have not really increased much in the last five years.

But we aren't enough to sustain a prime piece of real estate like Nana.


Oh, and by the way, anyone who's ever done business in Thailand knows that Thais DON'T GIVE A FUCK about rental income.  Period.

They buy or sell.  They HATE renting.

I've seen properties in my neighborhood that have been empty for years.  I've even tried to rent some of them, but the owners show absolutely no interest in renting.  They are rich, old Thais and they don't want to be bothered with the hassles of having tenants.  

The way it works is that some member of their family will tell them, "buy this property, it's a good investment", and they will.  Then they'll sit on it and let it rot for 10 years until they can sell it for a healthy profit.

You can try to explain to them that they are losing MILLIONS in rental income and they'll just say, "mai ben rai, karb".  They are so ridiculously rich that a few million baht in rental income isn't worth their time.

It's one of the most frustrating attitudes I've encountered in Thailand and it drives me up the wall when I see an empty, decaying property sitting on PRIME land.  I'd jump at the chance to rent it, but the just can't be arsed to bother.  Half the time, they don't even bother advertising it for sale, because they have some insane number in their head that they THINK they should get for it in 5 years, and they don't want to be bothered fielding more realistic bids on what it might actually be worth TODAY.

I bring this up to point out to you guys that anyone who thinks that "rental income" is going to be a factor in Nana's future just doesn't know Thai people at all.

The DON'T CARE about the rental income.  Trust me.  They don't.  Not. At. All.

So if someone makes them a good offer on the land, they will sell it in a heartbeat.  It doesn't matter how much money the tenants have poured into their business (like in Soi Cowboy).  If some development group came along and offered to buy the land, they'd bulldoze Cowboy (and they might even give people enough notice to pack up their shit and get out... maybe).

Nana could be bringing in millions in rent every month, and it just wouldn't matter.  If a buyer willing to meet their insane price appears (or if it becomes politically/socially convienent for them), they'll sell.

Patpong would require the purchase of a whole neighborhood, so unless Donald Trump comes to Bangkok, it's unlikely that someone is going to take that area away from the Patpong family.  But like I said, Nana is a different story.

Prime location.  Multiple land owners.  A strong baht depressing the Cheap Charlie tourist trade.  And a government keen to clean up Thailand's international interest and also convert the area on to a TAX-PAYING venture.

Seriously, do you really think Nana Plaza will last 5 years?

We'll just have to bump this thread then and see, won't we....

One rather large flaw in your view on nana - its not owned by Thai's but by Indians and they DO care about rent income.

Other than that not sure where to start, so probably better not to bother other than to say, its not the Thai's who are buying into lower Sukhumvit but Indian Thais - almost every piece of real estate I have seen up for grabs has gone to hmmmmmm, yes you guessed it. Forget the Thai's - they hate lower Sukhumvit UNLESS they have been there for generations. Thai's want to buy, but get outbid almost everytime. Ever wonder who owns virtually every hotel along Sukhumvit - suggest some homework is in order and then deduce what role NEP plays in this long long term game.

A Clue - NEP is the nectar but somewhere else the honey is made.....and where the nectar is, is surely where you find the you know whos.

Cheers
Mardhi

[JustSumGai]

(Snick @ Mar. 08 2008,10:49)

(Rollo Tomasi @ Mar. 08 2008,10:41) Everything in this thread is absolute speculation...

Some of it pretty good and some of it just plain bizarre!

I'm guessing that Cowboy will shut down long before Nana does.

LOL, you say everything is speculation, and then you say 'I guess...'

Have you been to cowboy lately ?, ALL the bars are being upgraded. Lots of money is going into cowboy. People do not invest millions of dollars unless they know they will make  a good return from it, and will be there long enough to make profit.

I'd be more worried about Nana since there is less sign of  investment, and even a few vacancies.

p.s. by million I am speaking in aggregate, the 'average' update is about $100,000 usd

a run down dive sells for less than a "newly" refurbished business which one could argue is making them good money and puts them in a better spot to ask more. Now, if it's an EMPTY place, that ain't gonna help. If Cowboy thrives, buyouts might take longer I'd think. Ain't speculating fun?

[Guest]

[QUOTE]A Clue - NEP is the nectar but somewhere else the honey is made.....and where the nectar is, is surely where you find the you know whos.

I think Mardhi has just returned from seeing the "Bee Movie". This could be some sort of code of which he holds the only key!!

[mardhi]

[quote]
(aperry @ Mar. 11 2008,08:54)

A Clue - NEP is the nectar but somewhere else the honey is made.....and where the nectar is, is surely where you find the you know whos.

I think Mardhi has just returned from seeing the "Bee Movie".    This could be some sort of code of which he holds the only key!!  

Hmmm - maybe I was too cryptic for my own good - but the jist is that the owners of the plaza have many fingers in other related pies. How do you think the Majestic Tailor shop, evolved into the Majestic suites and then onto the Majestic Grande? Same family in case your not aware and the tailors shop is still going strong. Now take out nana Plaza and what will be the impact on the tailors shops and hotels owned by the inter-related families? I suspect when you work that one out, you have your answer - Indians tend to play a long game like the Chinese - they rarely sell property, but just pass it though the family. Take away the source of the interest and you damage potentially all the other cash cows that are connected to extracting as much money as they can from visitors who converge around NEP.

Cheers
Mardhi

[Tomcat]

The voice of reason....

btw
I always thought that the Taiwanese owned a lot of the Hotels. The Bankok post stated that the only Thai Family owned  Hotel in BKK is the Narai Hotel in Silom Rd. ( or maybe one of the few left, my memory aint that good)

[Guest]

All speculation and I've heard it 100 times over the past 11 years: first it was the lease was up and then it was legal issues (NEP has never been a zoned Entertainment district).
The land that NEP stands on is owned by an Indian family. They take the rent for the land from all the bar owners. Every time a bar closes or changes hands, they make a substantial amount of money in "key" money.
I have no doubt that if they were offered the right money for a development, they'd take it but with a huge piece of empty land next to the Landmark and a decrepit half built building next to that, there is plenty of cheaper land that is not currently making money.

We've also heard countless times of cleanups and such but it's all lip-service and the money will line the pockets of a few while nothing really happens (the bars might be pushed around a bit but they will be there) - the economists know how much revenue is brought in by the sex industry.

It's funny that nobody has mentioned Soi Cowboy which has had a resurgence in the past few years and a lot of investment in new go-gos ?

All you doomsayers need to spend less time drunkenly stating the same things that people have been saying for years - and go and get laid.

[Guest]

(Tomcat @ Mar. 11 2008,20:17)
The voice of reason....

btw
I always thought that the Taiwanese owned a lot of the Hotels. The Bankok post stated that the only Thai Family owned Hotel in BKK is the Narai Hotel in Silom Rd. ( or maybe one of the few left, my memory aint that good)

Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

[Road Runner]

(seanchai @ Mar. 12 2008,22:11) Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

So does that mean I can take all of my 'wives' in there without a joiner fee?


Hello Seanchai,

I did not expect to see you posting on here.

I'm trying to rack my brains at the last time we met up in LOS.

I'm sure you were with one of your photographers of the time, I had a young lady called Anna in tow (not a looker but good fun ) and I believe Woofer was there too.

RR.

[Tomcat]

(seanchai @ Mar. 13 2008,07:11) [Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

You need to go to Specsavers buddy...just read my post properly....And whats with the wanker sign...

[jimslim]

(seanchai @ Mar. 13 2008,07:11) Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

Looks like they have got their foot in the door .

[Guest]

(Tomcat @ Mar. 13 2008,18:40)

(seanchai @ Mar. 13 2008,07:11) [Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

You need to go to Specsavers buddy...just read my post properly....And whats with the wanker sign...

Easy Tomcat - it wasn't in retort to you post, just an addition on who owns what in the Sukhumvit area.

... and the Mormons (Morons) are indeed, a bunch of wankers.

[Guest]

(Road Runner @ Mar. 13 2008,07:24)

(seanchai @ Mar. 12 2008,22:11) Well the Mormon's own the Marriott!

So does that mean I can take all of my 'wives' in there without a joiner fee?


Hello Seanchai,

I did not expect to see you posting on here.

I'm trying to rack my brains at the last time we met up in LOS.

I'm sure you were with one of your photographers of the time, I had a young lady called Anna in tow (not a looker but good fun ) and I believe Woofer was there too.

RR.

Roadrunner - just realised who you are.
That's got to be like 5 yrs ago?

You were in the presence on a short Thai girl with long dark hair, almond eyes and a 8 inch cock....!

How are you? Still get back regularly?