Nana Plaza has got five years left, tops...

[katoeylover]

Also one forgets that it is the thais themselves that are the biggest users of Prostitution. Farang make up a very small minority.

[Tomcat]

I know a old hand who lives near Patpong and other than the bar cull around 10 years ago its all still there.
He actually wrote a fantastic essay on this very subject as part of a journalistic project, if he gives permission i will post it later this week.

It not as busy but no Bars have closed as far as i know in 10 years...

[rossco]

Re my "Dinner" - not hosted by Thai Government but by a syndicate who had notable speakers from Thai Province - Governor. Thai Military Bank - economic overview and investment potential. Colonel of Immigration Police and Thai Elite.

The dinner was informative and entertaining - three performances - one from Tiffany.

From another Forum - my post follows - if you are not already bored by this!

. I do not purport to be an expert but am passing on what I listened to.

The issue is really centered around taxes.

Up market resorts actually "employ" people and deduct taxes. They are also "corporations" who pay Value Add/Sales tax and corporate tax.

All this is real income to the Thai Government.

Most bars, that we enjoy, do not "employ" people nor pay taxes generally - like "sole traders" they minimise their revealed profits and minimise their tax exposure. It would be suicide to list BarFines as a source of revenue - think about it. These bars are very much a "cash" business so tracking Income/Expense/Profit would be an auditors nightmare.

The % of "available working population" paying ANY tax in Thailand is 16%. Check out your own countries stats - in the UK/USA even a retired pensioner is liable to tax.

So the government is more enthused to see tourism that produces "State" revenue. Hence up market resorts.

I do not believe that ALL our favorite haunts will be demolished nor closed (Armageddon) BUT these will be under pressure to make a living/profit.

Take bar closures - recently a growing syndrome - this did NOT apply to resorts, restaurants etc. So a traditional bar owner now has less days to break even/make a profit. It is only the smart and well run places that will survive in these niche markets.

Original post in reply to a bar owner:

(Name removed) - You are right to be pissed off but the conference (they had one in Phuket late last year) also made a subtle but important point.

Most bars and their employees do not pay tax - in fact only 16% of the Thai available workforce pay ANY tax.

Tourists staying at Resort Hotels automatically pay heavier tax and all employees are on a form of "payroll". So as a Government they are not interested in our lifestyle but Tax credits. Taxes pay for infrastructure is the argument.

Guest houses, low cost hotels, beer bars, street vendors, hawkers etc etc, in the main, pay either no taxes or a very small amount. 99.9% are not registered for any Sales/Value Add tax.

As an example - one beer bar had a turnover of 7 million Baht in 2006 - tax bill 7,000. None of the "employees" are on payroll so no tax there either.

The strategy is simple - go up market and get the taxable revenue and income.

The forced closure of the lower end market bars etc is a way to encourage tourists to use the resorts etc. The conference played down the "traditional" tourism - not even mentioned. Their focus and emphasis is on:

Resorts - inclusive deals
Leisure activities - Golf, Sailing, diving (not muff!)
Restaurants
Spas/Massage (legit style)
Health and cosmetic surgery hoildays - gender transition was mentioned!
Eco holidays - trekking etc

If we think this is all bad news imagine when someone significant passes away? 100 days official mourning will also include bar closures - excluding "resort" style venues - of course...

We all better get used to it as it is going to happen - the trick will be to adapt to whatever changes are made.

[kahuna]

Damn, all the girl's phone numbers I've collected are actually gonna be worth something...  

The Ladyboy Phone Directory...Now there's a thought...

[donnnnnny]

come to my how to be a cunt sckool, cheers mate and nice to meet you in guess the other night

[doug]

I'm tempted to just say, "you know what?  let's just wait five years and then bump this thread and see who was right and who was wrong..."

And I will.

But for now, let me respond to some of the things you guys have said just for the sake of argument  

(jadeite @ Mar. 02 2008,19:05)

(doug @ Mar. 02 2008,16:01) The forces of gentification are at work in Nana, my boys, and it won't be long now before your favorite neighborhood is a thing of the past.

Yawn. This pops up about once a year.... ...Do you know that 5 years ago, many so called informed people were predicting EXACTLY the same thing?

I'm aware of that.  In fact, I even said I was aware that there is a long-standing tradition of BarStool Bullshit that involves doomsaying about Thailand's nightlife.  If you want to take my post as just another "yawner", then by all means.  In five years, we'll bump this thread and see who was the wiser man.  Deal?

But you have to admit that things are a bit different than they were in the mid-90's.  Even in the last 5 years, the Nana area has changed A LOT.

Last year the horses mouth said the master lease of Nana was not going to be renewed and was proclaimed up until a few months ago by well connected people as the end. But surprise surprise, it has been renewed and going as strong.

I don't know who you are referring too.  Was this gentleman a farang or a Thai businessman?  Or do you think I'm using "horse's mouth" in the same way people use:  "They Say..." when they want to quote an anonymous authority without any real backing in fact?

I don't know anything about Nana's lease, nor would the person I was talking about (the horse's mouth in my post is an actual Thai businessman, and a big fish too).  Nana's lease (or the leases of the bars in Nana) actually has very little to do with the Nana area's future, so I can't see how it would be relevent anyway.

As Jay learned recently with the Guess Bar, a lease means NOTHING in Thailand.  If someone comes along with a good offer, the property will sell and the tenants will get booted.  Period.

The Suk1 plaza sold because it was the cheapest and "most vulnerable" property in that area, and it's now in the process of being gentrified as we speak.  The "leases" of the former tenants meant diddly-squat, and this being Thailand, they could "renew the lease" on Monday, and demolish the building on Tuesday.  Sabai, sabai, after all....

[donnnnnny]

(kahuna @ Mar. 03 2008,18:37) Damn, all the girl's phone numbers I've collected are actually gonna be worth something...  

The Ladyboy Phone Directory...Now there's a thought...

kahuna i want to talk to you

[doug]

(jadeite @ Mar. 02 2008,19:05)

(doug @ Mar. 02 2008,16:01) Patpong is now 50/50 red-light district and night market, and the night market is winning.  And every time a go-go bar closes, it's replaced by an upscale restaurant or shoe store, not another go-go bar.

This totally discredits everything you have said. I defy you to give ONE example, just ONE.

Geesh, just one?   The list is WAY to long.  How about I turn that question around on you:  Name ONE shoe store, restaurant, or other "normal" establishment on PatPong Road that recently (last 5 years) opened up in a spot that was NOT formerly occupied by a go-go bar or massage joint.

Walk down that street and look around for crying out loud.  I mean, I know I try not to linger too long on that street because farang attract touts like flies to shit,

But seriously, next time you're down there, take a break from peeking through the curtains of the go-go bars to look around at the people and the places they are going into.

There are more and more "normal" tourists and their families and more and more places catering to THEM, not you.

Right across the street from Radio City there's a new restaurant that recently opened up that looks completely out of place in a "seedy redlight district".  Twenty years ago, that spot was occupied by a p4p establishment, now they serve food to weary shoppers and business people.

But this thread isn't about Patpong, it's about Nana, so back on topic.

Here's something from the Bangkok Eyes website that you might find interesting:

"While these dire predictions have yet to come to pass, they may eventually be proven right:    The total number of lounges and bars on Patpong I has been decreasing yearly since mid-1993.

Virtually all of the €˜original€™ Patpong I & II venues have been bought out by newer bars, or have disappeared altogether.    Survivors are few and far between;   The Madrid is the last of the original lounge-restaurants and has the same format of good food, drink and company, while the Safari Bar is the oldest remaining A-Go-Go bar.  The Takara Massage after several incarnations and relocations, is still with us.

     But most of the original venues on Patpong Road came into being, had their heyday and passed into oblivion before many of us arrived on the scene."

For those Expats residing in Bangkok, and the legion regular returnees, you will notice in the list below that a lot of old familiar faces have RECENTLY slipped from 'part of the fabric' to 'part of history'.

        The listing of 75 Night Entertainment Venues that have switched off the neon over the last year follows:

Bangkok Eyes

The mathematics at this juncture are straightforward; 75 bars folded last year out of a total average 'population' of 335 bars (in farang nightlife areas).   This means that over 22 % of the bars open in January 2007 were closed by January 2008.

A twenty percent drop in ONE YEAR, and you want to say that there's "no credibility" in what I'm saying???

Disagree, fine.  State your facts and make your case, fine.  But you cannot dismiss this outright.  There is way, way, way, way too much evidence that NOW is finally the time when the "doomsayers" are finally proven right, and it is inevitable that some day, they will be proven right.  Bangkok's p4p scene can't last forever the way it is.  Once the city matures, it WILL change.  All I'm saying is that it's starting to happen now.   So we can disagree about WHEN it'll happen, but not IF it'll happen.  That's a given.

Notice that the Bangkok Eyes list includes the Guess Bar as having "closed".  Which is true, it was forced to close (but has found a new life across the road).

But anyone looking for evidence of what I'm talking about needs to look no further than the case of the Guess Bar.  They had a lease, and it was ignored.  They were in a "Nightlife area" that catered to farang sexpats and their landlord was one of those old Thai mafia gangsters we always rumor about.

But the original Guess Bar is "gone", along with all of its neighbors.  And what's taking its place?  Wander into the Suk1 plaza now and go upstairs and take a look at Gazebo if you want to see the future.

It's a glorified YUPPIE fern bar with a house band that plays the Chili Peppers (not Skynard for you old fucks).  The girls in there would sooner chuck themselves off the balcony than be seen talking to some fat, old farang (especially when most of the "normal" farang guys in there are hip, young handsome posers with gelled hair and silk shirts, and so why would they talk with you when they can flirt with a cute guy their own age who probably has a lot more money than you do).  You have about as much chance of getting laid in that bar as you would in The Webster in NYC (zip).

That is the future of the Nana AREA, my friend.  Like it or not.

Bangkok is "growing up" and a lot of those rich, young kids who went overseas to make their fortunes (or get an education) are coming back and they want to hang out in hip, classy joints with hip, cool people.

Ratchada Soi4 is already established as teenie-booper-land where the kiddies go to get pissed, show off the custom jobs on their Hondas, and get into fights.  So that's not going to appeal to young yuppies on the prowl.  RCA recently had a makeover and it's already completed the gentrification process that Nana is now beginning (compare Morgan Beat to Slim).

Again, I'm not saying that the p4p scene in Thailand is going to go away, that'd be just stupid.  But it is going to move, and move soon.

Maybe it'll move to Soi 13, maybe it'll move to Petchaburi Road, maybe it'll be forced into the suburbs or some area that's currently a "slum".  Who knows?  But seriously, how long do you think a major city is going to tolerate a red-light district in its downtown?  

Sure, many cities HAVE tolerated exactly that (New York, Amsterdam, etc...), but eventually the forces of market economics combined with a more mature (and perhaps puritan) outlook on city-planning takes over, and the red-light areas get the nudge.

Yeah, yeah, this is Thailand and buddhists are all tolerant, etc... But there is a huge difference between tolerating something and liking something.  And Thais, like people around the world, like MONEY a lot more than they "like" tolerating the p4p scene.

Nana and Patpong are both specially designated "nightlife areas".  Now just stop and think about what that means to an actual business investor.  Later hours, exceptions on holidays, less restrictions, etc...  all mean that if you're thinking about investing  in the restaurant/entertainment business then Nana and Patpong have a natural advantage over any other area in the city.

Eventually some forward-thinking investors come along and (with the support of some puritan politicans motivated to "clean up" the city) they start chipping away at the edges of the red-light district until it falls below a certain "critical mass" and the scene evaporates.

It WON'T disappear.  It'll move somewhere else (just as the Guess Bar has already had to move because it was pushed out by gentrification).

All I'm saying is that the writing is clearly on the way.  In a few years, we can bump this thread and you can all call me a prat if I'm wrong.  Deal?

[Tomcat]

(doug @ Mar. 03 2008,19:32) Virtually all of the €˜original€™ Patpong I & II venues have been bought out by newer bars, or have disappeared altogether.    Survivors are few and far between

Patpong
Thats the biggest load of Bull i have ever read,
KC1 2 and 3 and all the Kings Group places are still there . The Pussy Galore is still there. Kings Corner is still there. Pinnochio and Rose ... still there

The only places that have gone are the shitholes which deserved to go ... good fucking riddance

All the sex joints are still there.

[Tomcat]

(doug @ Mar. 03 2008,19:32) but eventually the forces of market economics combined with a more mature outlook on city-planning takes over, and the red-light areas get the nudge.

yeh , like Hong and Taiwan and Nevada and... . The red light districts are still there in the same place since the 60s. Its just more expensive

[jadeite]

Doug you are just too long winded for me to get through your posts, but a couple points:

1. So you were unable to support your claim: "And every time a go-go bar closes, it's replaced by an upscale restaurant or shoe store, not another go-go bar." Pardon me for being skeptical of someone who posts what I know is not true then tries to wiggle out of it meanwhile claiming righteousness.

2. That list of closed bars in Bangkok is very, very deceptive. Many of them are operating as they were, but under a different name. So why are they being counted as a net loss bar in Bangkok to support that make believe statistic? That is just wrong. And some are still there under the same name so I don't know how they made the list. But sure, closures happen and soi 1 plaza was big one. I never contested that.

3. FYI, the horses mouth about the nana master lease not being renewed was from nana bar owners recanting this from their sources. They were all wrong.

4. A proper lease in Thailand is as good as gold. Guess bar was an own goal for you. Guess bar and all other leases in Soi 1 were honored completely. The wink-wink yes sure go ahead an renovate because we'll allow you to renew when it expires was not honored. That's how I read it. Thailand operates by the rule of law. Legal leases are ALWAYS honored. The long term Nana lease being freshly renewed means a lot. It is the illegal squatters who you see getting thrashed badly (eg: soi 10).

[doug]

(Tomcat @ Mar. 03 2008,19:56)

(doug @ Mar. 03 2008,19:32) but eventually the forces of market economics combined with a more mature  outlook on city-planning takes over, and the red-light areas get the nudge.

yeh , like Hong and Taiwan and Nevada and... . The red light districts are still there in the same place since the 60s. Its just more expensive

You're right, or it could go like New York, London, Boston, San Francisco, etc... where the red-light areas got bulldozed and/or gentrified.

In a year or two, we'll know which way it's headed, but you're dead-wrong if you think Nana as-it-is is going to remain a shitpit eternally. It's either going to gentrify into shops, pubs, and restaurants (which I think will happen), or it'll move to upscale resorts and spas where sex MIGHT still occur, but it'll be way more expensive and the government will finally be able to TAX it.

Patpong
Thats the biggest load of Bull i have ever read,
KC1 2 and 3 and all the Kings Group places are still there . The Pussy Galore is still there. Kings Corner is still there. Pinnochio and Rose ... still there

The only places that have gone are the shitholes which deserved to go ... good fucking riddance

All the sex joints are still there.

Oh really? ALL of them still there?

All of the places you mentioned are less than 25 years old, some less than 10 years old. Which means there were PLENTY of places that have closed on Patpong already. And many of them have changed into stores, restaurants and slightly more "normal" bars and pubs (like Twilight, Lucifer, Radio City, and Pink (which replaced Pink Panther)).

What about the vaunted King's Group?

Here's the list of King's Group properties:
King's Castle I
King's Castle II
King's Castle III
King's Camelot Castle
King's Corner
King's Garden
King's Palace
Queen's Castle I
Queen's Castle II
Pussy Galore
King's Cleopatra (CLOSED)
Queen's Castle III (CLOSED)
King's Lounge (CLOSED, replaced by Tip Top )

I've never heard of Garden, Palace or Camelot, so I can't say whether or not they're still open, but still, three out of thirteen properties closed, RECENTLY.

So even the King's group is starting to shift into the restaurant/entertainment business.

Look, in the end, you and I are just customers, so what we say or think doesn't matter, especially if a business decides to attract a new and different market.

Listen to what the people who actually RUN Patpong have to say:

Neal Forest (One of the management staff for the Salasawan, Radio City and Twilight bar) : "I see Patpong becoming more like Soho in London, with more nice bars and restaurants popping up. It's changing".

Micheal, a Austrian-born Patpong businessman, thinks that while this seems a certain sign that the Patpong story will stretch long into the future, he is adamant this won't just mean more of the same. Asked where he sees Patpong in ten years, paints a very different go-go scene to the current one. "There'll be less flesh, more mystery, and more charm," he predicts. Many of the more ramshackle establishments will make way for stylish, more atmospheric venues, and the 'in your face' girly bars found on Soi 1 will slowly be pushed out or redeveloped.

So there you have it. These people actually run businesses on Patpong and they see change in the making, so I'll take their word for it. Also note that the main reason that Micheal-guy says that Patpong will continue for quite some time in the future is that the street is owned by one family, and they have little incentive to sell.

The whole Nana area (not just the plaza), on the other hand, has many owners, so any one investor is not required to make a single massive purchase. The buildings can be bought and gentrified in a piecemeal process lasting several years.

Again, I'm talking about Nana, not Patpong. I just used some quotes about Patpong to show that EVEN PATPONG is under pressure to gentrify, but since it's tucked away in a little corner, the process is much slower. However, do you really think they ran a subway under Sala Deang just to cater to sexpats? Don't be naive!!

Contrary to popular belief there is some urban planning in Bangkok (it's half-assed, of course, but it does exist), and I can promise you that a multi-million dollar subway system does not link up with an expanding (think AIRPORT) Skytrain system, just to serve the needs of horny 50/60-somethings.

Nana may not have a subway stop (but that stop at Asoke means you can kiss Soi Cowboy good-bye. I don't care how busy it is right now, the bulldozers are already lining up. Cowboy probably has less time left than Nana), but Nana is still on Sukhumvit Road and it's just off the Expressway.

So unlike the Siam Square area, people from the suburbs won't have to fight (as much) traffic to get to Nana. Real estate is all about location, location, location and right now, Nana is the "IT" neighborhood. Between the Skytrain and the Expressway, it's gentrification has been LONG overdue.

Once the new Skytrain lines are added and people start pouring into the city from the suburbs, every neighborhood in Bangkok will change.

So tell me, why do you think Nana will be the ONLY neighborhood in Bangkok not to change? Do you think that just because the sex industry brings in "a lot" of money, that it'll somehow exempt Nana from the natural forces of urban renewal??

Baa. That's stupid. If sexpats are willing to travel all the way around the world to get laid, they aren't going to care if they have to go to Nana or travel a bit further over to Soi 13 or Petchaburi Road.

Nana's dead. Stick a fork in it. Who knows where its heir will rise? The people who run those bars don't really publish their business plans much. But the people who run legitimate restaurant/entetainment business do publish their plans. So I invite you to take a look at some Thai business journals. You'll see the word "Nana" and "development" mentioned quite a bit.

[Tomcat]

(doug @ Mar. 03 2008,21:21) All of the places you mentioned are less than 25 years old, some less than 10 years old.  Which means there were PLENTY of places that have closed on Patpong already.

Patpong

How can you expect any area to stay the same in a 25 year period. Some things will change thats obvious and other than the two supposed bars that the KG own the only places that closed down were done so because

1) they were Gay bars in PP1- 12 years ago( there is still one left for the few Homos that need a quicky)

2) places that threatened customers - around 12 years ago- PP1

3) gone bust PP2 - around 10 years ago, cant even remember that shithole ,, it was at the Silom Rd end
One Bar only.. cant think of another one.

4) The Kings lounge was a new bar set up only 3 years ago .

As for Nana... well its just speculation. If it does happen then Mardhi had better tell Jay to throw the sofa out to make a bit more room  

[diablo80]

Well

this is called EVOLUTION and this is good for any kind of business... Evolve or Die... Do not forget that LBs are also part of the human evolution tooo... 25 years ago they did not exist


Let's face it even if Nana's close down there will be created 10s or 100s of new places in other areas...

[jadeite]

Doug, you post wrong plus misleading information that supports your theories and on top of that you appear completely oblivious to any counter examples that throw cold water on them. You have a very unbalanced and inaccurate view of things.

I am not going to correct the bad information in your last post. But I will add that Patpong nightlife has had some interesting expansions lately. I was at soi Cowboy the other day when some  ladyboys decked out in sexy, feathery cabaret outfits strutted through handing out brochures. A brand new ladyboy venue has opened at patpong called Lumsing right off soi 2.