Nana Plaza has got five years left, tops...

[pacman]

Thanks jadeite for your comprehensive response to my post.
You seem to have covered everything & as I only represent one side of the debate, I was going to agree to disagree & leave it for the BMs to make up their own minds.
But I was a little troubled by a couple of your comments so I felt it necessary to clarify a couple of things.

Your first point on Buddhism is good, I agree entirely about it being a religion of tolerance. Where else does a son announce his intention to swap sex & he/she is accepted with love by the whole family?
There's Buddhism in action, wouldn't work like that anywhere else I can think of.
Buddhists may well wish to help each other but in the late 70's, early 80's, when a group of Buddhist monks were voted into a hung parliament, they held the balance of power & immediately set about closing down the sex trade.
I can't remember dates, I don't know their names but this is a matter of public record, the news of which swept the world.
Having witnessed the appalling behaviour of the ugly sex tourist first hand during my 2 month stay in 1976, I could not say I was surprised.
It is also a matter of public record that it didn't happen.
Deals were done, bribes were probably paid, but the simple fact was the economy couldn't afford it.
The best girls in the northern villages were selected & financed to go to Bangkok or Pattaya with the sole purpose of remitting money home - for the entire village in many cases.
How do I know?
I spoke to dozens of them.

But the monks didn't lose the fight, not entirely. The 18 year age limit was imposed, the major scene of the crime was effectively closed.
The reason I mentioned the thriving scene in Patpong with at least 30 bars, all opening out onto the street, was because on my return visit they were all, bar the few there today, gone.
I mean blocks of the best nightlife in the World just history. You asked Doug in your earlier reply to name just one business that replaced a bar,
walk the 3 blocks of Patpong & write down the names of the non-bar businesses & you will be off to a good start.
Admittedly there aren't many up-market restaurants but you did ask.
Some of the old names survived, except they had to relocate upstairs.
The reason I was told : "police don't want falang to see dancing girls".
KC3, Kings Corner, etc - I think their survival owes more to who owns them then any loophole in the legislation.
The same motivation still exists amongst Thai legislators today that saw the mass closure then. It is not a weak argument to remind everyone that if they did it then they can do it again.

The only logical reason to have enforced alcohol bans is to damage falang bar owners. Part of the grand plan to take back control of the nightlife business.
Then I have to remind myself This Is Thailand - where the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

Next point - surviving the Royal mourning period.
Explain to me the business plan that allows any bar/club owner to prosper while his premises remain closed.
Even if they can open, it will be with all signs & most lights off, & as for go-go dancing or consuming booze,
I wasn't joking when I wrote that would be reason enough to kill someone for the show of disrespect.
Even if one had sufficient funds to ride it out, how do you keep your staff? It will be a very interesting time.

Nana, for sale or not? Everything is for sale at the right price but I do agree with jadeite that the current owners already own the best & cheapest investment they will ever have.
It is for that reason alone we should not be so quick to write off Nana.
But what if they are elderly & their oldest son has an MBA from Harvard & the Govt changes the legislation on bars?
A few "ifs" there, but something will happen one day & as stated, we will wake up to find it a pile of rubble.
Imagine the planning concessions the next generation of owners could wrest from the Govt if they proposed a redevelopment for the site.
"Not only do you get a brand new building, but you rid the city of this din of iniquity."

I will let Rossco confirm what was stated at the grand dinner put on by the Govt for 500 guests concerning the future of Pattaya.
The fact that it has been all said before should be more reason to understand the Govt's determination to follow through with their stated desire to "clean-up the place".
And many beerbars have already been swept away when another big development has been approved.
The old buildings lining Soi Yamoto & others like it are all ripe for the taking.

The officials are all aware they will have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to seize back all the clubs & bars they want during the official mourning period.
If 3 months won't be long enough, then they will make it 6 months.

Yes, I can hear everyone screaming now, but let's wait till we see what they do. And naturally, I do hope I am completely wrong.

Sorry about all that jadeite, I know you obliquely referred to me as to not having a clue, but while I don't reside like yourself,
as a frequent visitor to LOS with many local business associates I have known for years, I feel entitled to express my firmly held view.

[pacman]

(SukhumvitRoad @ Mar. 03 2008,00:33)

(pacman @ Mar. 02 2008,21:03) ....The result is the World is awash with money & with equity markets under pressure like never before, the usual parking place for this excess capital has no appeal at all. Portfolios are being sold up to buy prime real estate.....

Darn, Pacman, I hope you're not in the investment business or, if you are, I'm delighted I'm not one of your clients.

'Liquidity crisis'? 'Housing slump'? 'Soaring foreclosures'? Any of that ring a bell?

Property markets everywhere are very much driven by local forces but, on the whole, the weakness of equity markets worldwide is replicated most places by matching weaknesses in commercial and residential property markets. There are isolated pockets of growth, but the rapid drying up of commercial credit has had a negative impact almost everywhere.

But in light of the counter-intuitive financial wisdom that you're so anxious to share with everyone, I've got a couple of bridges for sale you might want to have a look at......

Hi SukhumvitRoad.

American I presume.

I must say I did have to read your post a couple of times to appreciate the full extent of our difference of opinion.

No, I am definitely not an investment banker, doubt I would be much good at it, completely lacking the cynicism necessary to be both deluded & the deluder.

"liquidity crisis" - hmmm, you know repeating oft-heard phrases doesn't ensure their correct application.
If you are referring to the credit crisis confronting the banking system of the World, it isn't so much a lack of liquidity as an unwillingness to pass it on.

I guess you can argue it is the same thing, but right now the World is suffering from too much liquidity,
which is soon to result in massive stagflation in the US, that will have devastating effects on World markets.

"housing slump" - predominately in the US, no other country has suffered anything like the downturn our American friends have.                

"soaring foreclosures" - again an American phenomenon. Something like 10,000,000 mortgage holders are not coping with their repayments.              

And these people are armed !!          
You couldn't write the script.        

Outside of the US the isolated pockets of growth are not isolated at all. And you saw I wrote that it is PRIME real estate that has attraction for these investors.
It is going to take time for our American friends to realise that the centre of the financial universe has well & truly shifted away from Wall Street.

When a Hong Kong investment bank. or Japanese, or Saudi decide to buy up prime sites in places like Pattaya, there are no credit problems involved, certainly no drying up of commercial credit.

It's only mug workers like me, maybe yourself, who have to put themselves through the process of having to divulge every last cent we are worth.          

Remember China is sitting on 1.3 trillion US$ in cash, Japan 800 billion, their only problem is where to spend it before it is inflated into nothing.

And don't say that won't happen, already most oil producers will not accept US$ in payment for oil.
Venezuala was the latest country to reject them. Sorry SR, going off topic there, but you get the picture.

The value of waterfront properties in Pattaya are not & haven't for many years been driven by local forces.
No-one appreciates their unique worth more than the Chinese.
Here in Oz they pay top dollar for the best sites when they become available. As they like to say : "god isn't making any more."

I can't say if I am counter-intuitive or not, but any financial wisdom I may have was acquired the hard way.
To prove there are no hard feelings, tell me more about these bridges you mentioned. As a bit of a bridge collector myself, I should take up all opportunities.

I am already paying off the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
This guy collects $1000 a month, no cheques just unmarked bills.
He tells me it will be all mine in 20 years.
Can't wait, but I am a bit troubled - do you think I should ask him for receipts?                

[donnnnnny]

who fucking cares.
NANA has been there forever and never had a fucking brass razue spent on it\( a cent)
.Anyone remember when the escalator used to work!!! must be 10 years now.
it's a cockroach infested midgit infested, over priced shit hole that as , some have mentioned, myself included, ripe for a bomb. one way in one out.
here's to the bulldosers plying there trade and smashing it flat, and the new nana opening, where ever it is

[donnnnnny]

ok

[pacman]

Thanks Donnnnny.
What happens to Nana will happen without anybody coming on to the forum to run a poll as to what we all think.
The only problem with the new Nana will be its location.
If it's out in whoop-whoop, it will be too far to get to & won't be viable.
The future as always remains unclear.

Hey Don, where do I enroll to become a blunt bastard able to post in 20 words or less?
I think a few BMs would appreciate it.        

Cheers pacman        

[jadeite]

I am just trying to be the voice of reason. Here are some interesting tidbits:

Do you know that nowadays the law says everyone must be 20+ to work in the bars / allowed entry into the disco's? It is not 18 anymore. This law was not drawn up by monks, but was part of the social order crackdowns by an ultra conservative politician appointed by Thaksin. This law as well as many others continues to see a great deal of real enforcement too. It was not long ago they were threatening to raise the age to 25 and close everything at midnight, but apparently that was a bridge too far. But do not lose sight that some laws affected bars, some affected 7/11's, others massage parlors, etc. It is important to remember it was comprehensive morality not just drinking and not just bars.

The mourning period is a whole different subject. You pull out this lavish scheme where it will be used to starve out bar owners lasting as many months as needed to achieve that end. That sounds ridiculous to me. There is a recent precedent that is noteworthy. When the Kings older sibling passed recently, there was a 15 day mourning period. During that time, people wore black and a TV station went as far as to go black and white during that time. While the first day pretty much everything was shut, alcohol was business as usual during the mourning period.

Patpong gogo's are not diminishing so please do not use that as evidence Nana is on the chopping block. And based on your comments some of the new owners may come as a surprise. One of the newer bars Electric Blue is owned by an american. There is also a brand new gogo less than a year old where there was none before called The Strip that I believe is owned by Europeans. There are also other types of naughty entertainment that have sprung up where there was none before. Patpong nightlife is witnessing expansion! And you can indeed peek into the gogo's from the street at ground level so I don't understand why you indicate otherwise.

[pacman]

   This debate can't continue without an opposing point of view, so please continue.

I did know of this guy appointed by Thaksin, don't recall his name, but the fact he is ultra conservative would most likely have been his qualification for the job.
If it wasn't a popularly held view that reforms were needed for the night life scene, then his changes would have been stopped.
Many visitors to LOS don't appreciate how deeply ashamed Thais are of their image as a destination for sex tourists. Not all, but enough VIPs to make a change.

Now the problem faced by the bureaucracy is that many of the best businesses in the club scene are owned by senior police, military, etc.
Just like all the hotels in Bali are owned by Army Generals, so the top brass of the police & army in LOS want a slice of the action.
On the one hand that ensures the bar scene continues but on the other hand, where & how will they acquire the top spots?

The theory about the mourning period is my own, & I won't nail my colours to the mast in stating that it will definitely happen.
But it will represent the perfect chance to re-arrange the ownership of some plum assets.

I don't think it to be a lavish scheme at all, in fact this is exactly how places like LOS work.
And if the targeted bar owner isn't guilty of an infraction, then it will be his word against 3 Thai policemen.

I was told the mourning period for the King's sister was 60 days, maybe 15 was the more serious part, but I asked a well respected Thai businessman 2 weeks ago :
"if she gets 60 days, what will the King get? 3 months?"

Without hesitating he answered : "One year."

Now that seems a lot to me but I am not Thai & I can't speak for the subjects of the most revered Monarch on Earth.
This mourning period is going to have serious ramifications for any web site people continuing their business as well.
The Thais will demand total respect, so you are warned.

It is good that Patpong is witnessing an expansion of bars. It has only taken about 27 years to get 10% of what was there.
It was truly an incredible scene, no night market & 1000's of girls from way underage to whatever freelancing the street.

I know you can see straight into the bars from the street now, but that doesn't mean it was allowed when all the Patpong bars were shut in one fell swoop.
That requirement stayed in place for a bloody long time.

This has been a good thread to reflect on what changes we are likely to experience.
Of one thing I am certain - it will not stay the same.

[jadeite]

[quoteIt is good that Patpong is witnessing an expansion of bars. It has only taken about 27 years to get 10% of what was there[/quote]

For your information, patpong has about 15 gogo bars on the street level alone, about the same naughty places above them like shows/bj/gogo bars, about the same number of beer with girls, and about the same number of full on hostess bars. Whether you also count places like lucifers with freelancers and others you could be looking at 100 nightlife establishments in all. And that is not even including the HUGE soi twilight & soi 4 (gay oriented) or soi thaniya (japanese oriented)! So on the contrary, isn't it actually possible that patpong is actually at a high water mark?

[Snick]

This always pops up

1) The long term lease on Nana was recently renewed
2) The hotels in the Nana area make a HUGE amount of business of people coming to Nana. That includes the Marriott, the Landmark, etc....
3) There is a LOT of money involved
4) Really, A LOT OF MONEY
5) The government says it doesn't like the sex scene....when have you ever believed anything a Thai government official says ?

people wrote off Cowboy years ago, and now its busier then ever, with lots of new investments.

[tampanugget_2001]

The death knell of the sex scene in Pattaya and Nana Plaza will only come when the standard of living for the average Thai rises. When one can make more money (on average) by doing something other than sex work then the scene will disappear.

Even if the top politicians want to stamp out the sex trade, it seems that coruption is so endemic that would be very hard to stamp out. The coruption problem will also help be fixed when standards of living rise and the boys in brown are paid more.

Hopefully the Thai economy will continue to prosper, but things such as a well engrained respect for the "rule of law" (if a country has had a coup within the last year or two then I would argue that said country does not have respect for the "rule of law"). Thailand also seems to be overly burreaucratic and hostile to foreign ownership/capital. A prime example of Thai management skills and central planning is the new Bangkok Airport (enough said). (Is it still sinking?)

A lot (if not all of the sex trade is a matter of economics) and I don't forsee Thailand pulling itself out of third world status for quite some time.

[Snick]

Part of the crackdown by Thaksin was linked to the establishment of entertainment areas.
Specifically the Ratchada Entertainment area that contains large amounts undeveloped land owned by Thaksin and his clan.

i.e. It would have made him wealthier if he hadn't had to back down and restore the 1-2am closing times in all areas.
( and the reason he backed down was lots of people with lots of money were being affected by the 12am closing )

To reprise an old proverb "FOLLOW THE MONEY"

[Snick]

(pacman @ Mar. 03 2008,12:27) I was told the mourning period for the King's sister was 60 days,....what will the King get? 3 months?"

Without hesitating he answered : "One year."

This is the big Elephant in the room that no one will discuss - but from my conversations with people one year of mourning is what everyone expects.

Thats not to say that there will be an official policy closing all bars, or banning music for a year. But that Thai people will wear black for year, make merit in the Kings name, etc...

[Looker]

(tampanugget_2001 @ Mar. 03 2008,13:49) The death knell of the sex scene in Pattaya and Nana Plaza will only come when the standard of living for the average Thai rises.  

Exactly! And even then, won't disappear anyway.
Take Japan, second biggest economy in the world and highest number of prostitutes in the world.

[pacman]

A year does seem appropriate, given the esteem in which he is held & his 49 years of unblemished rule.

It will be very difficult time for anyone to misbehave, unforgiveable for a falang.

The enforcement of laws & the zero-tolerance to misdemeanours will be in stark contrast to what we are used to now.

The Thais will feel this will be a year to be personally tested & I don't think any of us can imagine how strict things will get.

Foreigners have been killed many times over the years in bars, etc when they failed to show due respect for the King, once he passes on
all visitors should be issued with a Govt warning explaining just how exposed they will be by stupid behaviour.

I have a wealth of anecdotes to support my claims.

[bbb2k2]

I guess we just have to wait and see. I hear this "the end is near" crap about lots of subjects and most of the time its just BS. Things might change over a period of several years, but anyone thinking prostitution will leave LOS are out of their minds.

Whatever happens, just enjoy today and don't worry too much about the future.