What the F**K is with the Thai Baht?!

[Dicko65]

And the AUD is about the same as the USD against the THB...

[azza33]

What scares me is when the commodity boom ends and the aud drops back to 70c us...will make los expensive to say the least!

Phils is looking more and more attractive...just wish they would do tourism better.

[Ninewives]

(azza33 @ Jan. 05 2011,09:09) What scares me is when the commodity boom ends and the aud drops back to 70c us...will make los expensive to say the least!

As good a reason as ever to enjoy the moment right now!

[f0xxee]

I belive the Thais would prefer a weaker baht at the moment as exports for them are grinding slowly to a standstill. However they are concerned that to devalue the baht is to increase inflation.
Given inflation in real terms (The world wide accepted and often referrenced Jim Fox-Marlboro Lights Index) has not been overly noticable to the average Joe Rattachattaparkapoon in the street, I see the baht returning, and reasonably rapidly to 32 THB to the USD.

For more utterly amazing economic prophesies email me: [email protected]


PS: Aussies. Spend it while you got it: in 5 years the 90% of Africa that China has bought will start producing and West Australia will again become the Bogan-back water it was before briefly rising to the surface like a bran-propelled turd.

[pacman]

I am not familiar with the Jim Fox Marlboro Lights Index, it can't be any less accurate than the nonsense fed to us by the economic commentators of the world.

I wonder how the slowdown in exports will impact on the baht, I suspect it won't do a lot while the Central Bank keep such a strong Current Account surplus.

A shame they don't spend it on giving the poor of LOS a break, god knows they need it. The next Red Shirt uprising will really drive the economy into the dirt.

And don't write off the West Australian mining industry just yet. It is extremely efficient, able to compete with anyone & a lot closer to China than Africa.

If China was building mines in Africa with the sole intention of getting cheaper prices, they would stop buying Australian commodities at the Spot Price, thereby paying double or more to the contract prices already negotiated.

I would love someone to explain what the hell is going on there, I know the Chinese play a very long game & no one ever accused them of being stupid, so just how does this work in the overall scheme of things?

For clarification, it is the Chinese paying record Spot Prices that are behind the windfall profits being racked up by BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto plus others.

[f0xxee]

Hi mate,

Remember the profit on a load of iron ore (230-300,000) tonnes is not huge, in fact it is marginal.
I think the Chinese end game is this: (and whatdafuckdoiknow?)
1. Loan a lot of money in Africa.... like a lot.
2. Endebt the generally corrupt governments
3. Make them financial fifedoms.
4. Care the same for african miners as they do for the OHS of their own miners.
5. Get minerals for next to nothing.
6. Load it from their own mines onto their own ships at their own ports in Africa.

The above couldn't happen in Aus, but it sure could in Africa.
And its not just mineral wealth but energy: Uranium, oil and gas.



No matter which way you cut it Paccie, an extra 2 weeks at sea makes fuck all difference if you own the ships, the mines, the work force, the legislators etc.

The marlboro-light index is the cost of a packet of M-L around the world. Far superior to the Big Mac index as the M-L is simpler (less ingredients to change) and sold far more universally than Maccas.

Cheers,

JF

[pacman]

I understand what the Chinese want to do in Africa, they want to close the circle so they own every part of the process. And don't bet they can't do it here in Oz, the Japanese did it with opal. Maybe not to the same degree but when a Japanese tourist arrives on one of their charter flights, staying at their hotel, eating in their restaurants, woe betide him if he wanders into an opal shop they don't own.

They will actually force the cancellation of any sale should one have taken place. Force the guy or girl to return the item & make the shop reverse the sale. I wouldn't have believed if I didn't know the shop owners myself.

And then the poor Jap tourist is frogmarched out of the shop like he was a slave, not a paying customer. Imagine an Australian copping that shit!!!

I still don't get why the Chinese happily (maybe not) pay the Spot Price when they have negotiated contract prices. Surely it isn't to do with face?

And don't underestimate the will of the Africans if they perceive they are being shafted by the Chinese. This is the era of the Internet, it isn't the day of colonisation anymore.

The Chinese are mainly securing future delivery but in the short term, I think their African holdings will be used as a bargaining chip to extract better prices from Oz. Our infrastructure is built & our government is stable.

And iron ore margins aren't bad according to my mate who has been selling the stuff to Japan & China for 30 years. I must ask him about the current profitability. Very good is what I expect him to say.

[f0xxee]

(pacman @ Feb. 01 2011,10:58) And don't underestimate the will of the Africans if they perceive they are being shafted by the Chinese. This is the era of the Internet, it isn't the day of colonisation anymore.

The Chinese are mainly securing future delivery but in the short term, I think their African holdings will be used as a bargaining chip to extract better prices from Oz. Our infrastructure is built & our government is stable.

:Ok: Your second point first. Assuming they do use cheap African minerals as a bargaining chip against AUS Miners, which way are AUS mineral prices going? Up or down? You have made my point for me. On the same, remember that the cost of extracting the ore in Aus is substantially higher, and therefore a level playing field against african prices will be anyhting but level.

Secondly, do you really pit the wiley Chinese trader against an African and expect a fair fight? Don't mean to be racist, (ok I am: I think africans are right up there with Filipinos for being lazy useless corrupt oxygen theives) The Chinese will do what the Oil Majors have done for years: Buy the government and exploit the fuck out of the country. The average african might get shafted and know he is getting shafted but there will be fuck all he can do about it for a long long time. Niger Delta. Zimbabawe. Ring a bell?

[f0xxee]

(pacman @ Feb. 01 2011,10:58) And iron ore margins aren't bad according to my mate who has been selling the stuff to Japan & China for 30 years. I must ask him about the current profitability. Very good is what I expect him to say.

He is a broker? Of course its very profitable... for him. he makes money win or loose. I worked for BHPB for a long time and I remember very lean times in the 90's for BHP.

THe argument you make about Japanese tourists ( whether Cairns or Gold Coast) cannot compare on a dollar value to a Chinese/African minerals conglomoration.

[bigtimetshunter]

Guys - my longer term plan is to move from the US to Thailand in 10 years. How would you suggest I "hedge" against this trend which I suspect will continue into the foreseeable future?

I'm thinking my only realistic options include: a Thai ETF (which has currency exposure??) and a condo? Either that or set my sites on cheaper places Cambodia or Vietnam, which quite frankly, ain't all that bad for a backup plan .

[EyeMahk]

(bigtimetshunter @ Feb. 16 2011,00:44) Guys - my longer term plan is to move from the US to Thailand in 10 years. How would you suggest I "hedge" against this trend which I suspect will continue into the foreseeable future?

I'm thinking my only realistic options include: a Thai ETF (which has currency exposure??) and a condo?

First question is how to be sure you want to move to Thailand in 10 years? Exposing yourself to one-country risk (like dollar-cost averaging into THD) then not moving there doesn't make sense.  Cambodia is even more risky, Vietnam less, in my opinion.

Most people I know (but not all) who have bought in Thailand wish they would have rented. Cars, condos, women, businesses, etc.  

Thailand is like an onion; before buying anything, I'd suggest you "peel the layers" to find out what it really is.

[bigtimetshunter]

^^ I'll bite... been there several times and have a good friend that lives there that's made the move himself a year ago. I'm single, don't plan on getting hitched here in the states. Where else can I "retire" at 45 and live in "paradise" (with the right planning)? Kind of a no brainer to me but I recognize it's not for everyone and frankly might not work out. The point is that with the right planning now, I'm more likely to make this option a reality if I want to pull the trigger.

All my assets are basically in US dollars so talk about exposure to one country risk. I'm 32 and for those of us in my age bracket, I suspect we'll see a massive economical balance shift over the next 30 to 40 years between Western and developing countries like Brazil, India and those in Southeast Asia. Recognizing this, my approach now is to start moving money into country and/or region specific ETF index funds. (Still leaving plenty in US dollars.)

At any rate, the questions of why I want to do it and whether hedging my currency risks is smart are somewhat subjective and those answers will probably vary person by person. The real question I'm interested in hearing the board's thoughts on is how I might go about hedging the USD vs. Thai Baht (or regional) currency risk given my situation? Maybe no one does it or thinks about these same things. I don't know, just throwing it out there.

[azza33]

right attitude...planning isthe way to achieve goals.

Parking your money in thailand is a bad idea- too many financial risks let alone political risk.

Plus...good luck getting your money back out of los, if ever you need to.

nick from c & d fame, may he rest in peace, always used to joke with me he never met anyone who git money out if there.

ersonally, I don't think you need to hedge...usd should get stronger from here.
if it doesnt probably means the us economy has imploded and your assets wiped out anyway.