The RED SHIRT Crisis in Bangkok!

[Grinder]

(laputanegra @ May 19 2010,17:20) Great the red shirt just fucked up my last night now I'm in my room alone bored and thirsty  

Pity I didn't know where you are babe - I left Pattaya with the masses around 9.30pm and am now relaxing at Grinder Towers with a few bottles of chilled white in the fridge and the pool beckoning...

[guydesavoy]

Tesco On Nut now taken over by Reds, employees taken hostage.

Anyone thinking of doing a Bisco run be careful....

[guydesavoy]

(Snick @ May 19 2010,23:16) That would explain a lot, as I was watching the Thai Army neglect to keep the peace after 'winning' I was reminded of the US Army in Baghdad after we 'won' that war.

I suspect that in the coming days/weeks a few interesting 'details' will come out. The rest we'll just have to read between the lines..

It seems also the fact that the 'Royal factor' couldn't or wouldn't fly led to many a rumination or hesitation and the realisation that this was a whole new game.

I think TT and his friend from The Guardian were onto something there.

[thaibound]

thoughts of a would-be ex-pat rehabbing-sex-tourist liberal atheist upon seeing the center of the world on fire from 10,000 miles away:

1. thaksin is a terrorist -- but what country will extradite him?
2. most thais think they were happier when he was in charge  -- but then most tea-partyers think obama bailed out the banks. uneducated is uneducated.
3. fearful of comparisons to myanmar (see "VJ Burma") the army was ineffective -- only to be accurately compared to the u.s. in 'mission accomplished' iraq.
4. many red protesters being paid by the day preferred cash to peace -- and those who brought their children along (another 200 baht?) should be neutered.
5. the monarchy's silence will have major repercussions -- and not for the better in the near-term.
6. a curfew in pattaya? the religious right wins again.
7.thaksin's surrogates will win the next election -- unless the yellows use the Diebold voting machines that gave bush ohio.
8. and then what?

[mardhi]

(Snick @ May 19 2010,22:16) That would explain a lot, as I was watching the Thai Army neglect to keep the peace after 'winning' I was reminded of the US Army in Baghdad after we 'won' that war.

Unfortunately the US army has probably less experience than the French in maintaining positions in city environments (and to hold the French army up is saying something !!!). City fighting and holding is very different - not least of all as tanks can't manouver very well (and for that just look at the Germans in the second world war with Russia over St Petersburg as I recall). City fighting is a intricate skill from what little I know and apart from Israel (almost since their creation) and the British (Northern Ireland) - I doubt many have built up much expertise in not only taking but holding positions in city streets against insurgents.

To put this into perspective just look at Central World - its adjacent to the main camp of the red shirts - however its now totally destroyed (err after the army claimed success and operations had stopped). Not exactly the Thailand Military's finest hour IMHO.

Cheers
Mardhi

[manarak]

(thaibound @ May 20 2010,01:22) thoughts of a would-be ex-pat rehabbing-sex-tourist liberal atheist upon seeing the center of the world on fire from 10,000 miles away:

1. thaksin is a terrorist -- but what country will extradite him?
2. most thais think they were happier when he was in charge  -- but then most tea-partyers think obama bailed out the banks. uneducated is uneducated.
3. fearful of comparisons to myanmar (see "VJ Burma") the army was ineffective -- only to be accurately compared to the u.s. in 'mission accomplished' iraq.
4. many red protesters being paid by the day preferred cash to peace -- and those who brought their children along (another 200 baht?) should be neutered.
5. the monarchy's silence will have major repercussions -- and not for the better in the near-term.
6. a curfew in pattaya? the religious right wins again.
7.thaksin's surrogates will win the next election -- unless the yellows use the Diebold voting machines that gave bush ohio.
8. and then what?

Abisit has one year and a half to manage a turn around by:

- implementing policies for the poor that will bring fast results, i.e. vote buying at higher prices by the dems, village development grants so the village heads can buy new cars and satellite dishes, subsided rice and sugar prices.
- changing the working speed of special branch police, electoral commission and courts from WARP 0.1 to "ridiculously high speed"
- and maybe he should also stop to "talk clever"

The most important thing is making sure that if a radical change became necessary in politics, the democrat party is there and ready to take over the country into full democracy, not some red shirt lunatic.

[SamplerDoc]

(manarak @ May 20 2010,05:19) Abisit has one year and a half to manage a turn around by:

Your math is Fuzzy, this is Thailand  

[rxpharm]

The seized assets of Thakin, his family and the other Red Shirt bankrollers should be used to rebuild all the damaged/destroyed buildings and clean up. In addition those assets should be used to fund truly useful programs to help the rural poor.

The Democrats have started some significant reforms already and I hope they can see them through. Certainly the Pheu Thai will not do anything useful if they win the next election.

[deepthroat]

Best suggestion I've heard yet (along with pushing for extradition of Thaksin and then prosecuting him on terrorism charges).

My question is this: would it be worse for Thailand if he faced charges in criminal court, or were "executed" by commandos? One makes him a possible martyr but silences him; the other gives opportunity to reveal him for the criminal he is but also had potential of making the trial a rallying force for the uneducated masses.

[deepthroat]

Latest updates:

Thai authorities say police will shoot looters, arsonists
by Reuters at 8:15 AM

Thailand's ex-PM Thaksin predicts guerrilla war
by Reuters at 11:17 AM

RT @tulsathit: Vigilantes are guarding several Bkk communities tonite..reports some caught suspects and informed CRES. (via js100radio)
by jonfernquest via twitter at 12:14 PM

(02:17) Latest: Fires CentralWorld and Siam are under control. #js100 radio
by veen_NT via twitter at 12:21 PM

And here's a few highlights from todays Wall Street Journal online article. You can find the whole story here:
http://online.wsj.com/article....gadgv1&


Bangkok Locked Down After Day of Chaos
Leaders Surrender But Some Protesters Flee, Set Fires Around City

BANGKOK€”Enraged mobs of antigovernment protesters set fire to swaths of Bangkok's priciest real estate Wednesday, sending thick columns of smoke into the hazy air and stoking fears that Thailand's chronic political divides could degenerate into an even-deeper conflict.

Demonstrators and local street thugs started the fires after an early-morning army assault on the so-called Red Shirt protesters' main camp forced the group's top leaders to surrender to police to prevent massive bloodletting. Mobs of roving protesters singled out economic targets for special attention, setting Thailand's stock-exchange headquarters ablaze and torching several banks and the headquarters of the city's electricity provider. Large parts of the Central World shopping mall overlooking the demonstrators' camp in Bangkok's main commercial corridor were gutted by flames and witnesses said Asia's third-largest shopping mall was close to collapse.

Government officials said they had expected a violent backlash when they moved to shut down the monthslong antigovernment protest. Satit Wongnongtaey, a minister in the prime minister's office, told a news conference that the government and security forces had anticipated "aftershocks" from the more-militant fringes of the Red Shirt movement.

Political analysts, though, worried that these aftershocks have worsened a struggle pitting Thailand's conservative establishment against a rural, populist movement inspired by ousted prime minister and telecommunications billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile to avoid imprisonment on a corruption conviction, but supports the movement financially from abroad.

Outside Bangkok, protesters in the northern city of Chiang Mai built barricades around government buildings while demonstrators set fire to government offices in Udon Thani and damaged the City Hall in Khon Kaen, both in northeastern Thailand. Later, the Thai government expanded the Bangkok curfew to cover 23 of Thailand's 76 provinces.

Economists said Wednesday's rioting could further damage Thailand's economic prospects at a time when its peers are rebounding sharply from the global financial slump. Some investors and executives, though, see the clearing of the main demonstration in central Bangkok as an indication that Thailand is getting back to some kind of normality.

"There is still uncertainty, but we think the downside is fairly limited from here," said Grace Tam, vice president of investment services at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. Local businessman Peter van Haren, chief executive of Thailand-based construction-materials firm Wiik-Hoeglund and former chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, says that while the violence has hurt the country's image in the short run, the Thai authorities have also shown they are able to enforce the law.

"How laws are enforced or upheld is a good indicator of your ability to be able to uphold your investment," Mr. van Haren says.

Bangkok's marathon street protests started peacefully. On March 12, tens of thousands of demonstrators began flowing into the Thai capital to push their demand for new elections. Parliament elected Mr. Abhisit as prime minister in 2008 after the armed forces brokered a series ofdefections from a pro-Thaksin party in Thailand's legislature.

As the protests dragged on, however, a violent fringe group began to dominate the rallies. They used the fortified perimeter around the Red Shirts' main protest site in central Bangkok to shoot fireworks and other improvised explosives at security forces sent to contain the protesters after they dawdled in accepting Mr. Abhisit's offer earlier this month of new elections on Nov. 14.

Senior government leaders such as Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, as well as government negotiators and some opposition mediators, blame Mr. Thaksin for the collapse in talks. They say he encouraged Red Shirt leaders to delay providing a response to Mr. Abhisit's offer, eventually leaving the prime minister no option but to send in troops. Mr. Thaksin denies sabotaging the peace talks.

Then, at dawn Wednesday, hundreds of soldiers began massing on the approach roads to the heavily fortified protest camp. Midmorning, armored tanks rammed into barriers constructed from sharpened bamboo staves and kerosene-soaked tires, and soldiers slowly ventured into the camp as protest leaders prepared to surrender and hard-liners fired grenades.

Speaking at the protesters' main stage in the early afternoon, one of their leaders, Jatuporn Prompan, explained they had to call off the rally to prevent any more people dying. Around 70 people have been killed since the demonstrators launched their campaign, with more than half of those coming in recent days.

"We know this decision will pain you," said Mr. Jatuporn, wearing a white T-shirt bearing the image of Indian protest leader Mohandas Gandhi. "But we have to stop the death, even though our fight will carry on."

As he spoke, explosions could be heard and militant Red Shirts in the area began setting fires, filling the afternoon air with choking black smoke. People in the crowd, many of them women and elderly, wept and pleaded for Mr. Jatuporn and another leader, Nattawut Saikua, to change their minds. Instead, the two men went with other Red Shirts to surrender at Bangkok's police headquarters nearby, and Thailand's crisis entered a dangerous and unpredictable new phase.

€”Eric Bellman, Patrick Barta,
Wilawan Watcharasakwet
and Alex Frangos
contributed to this article.
Write to James Hookway at [email protected]

[thaibound]

(deepthroat @ May 19 2010,16:25)      

Best suggestion I've heard yet (along with pushing for extradition of Thaksin and then prosecuting him on terrorism charges).

My question is this: would it be worse for Thailand if he faced charges in criminal court, or were "executed" by commandos? One makes him a possible martyr but silences him; the other gives opportunity to reveal him for the criminal he is but also had potential of making the trial a rallying force for the uneducated masses.

the government playing robin hood with thaksin's frozen assets, per rxpharm's suggestion, could be a huge help in achieving some peaceful balance of power, but only if it could be distributed with a minimal amount of corruption -- and isn't that where this whole problem started?

and i'd cast a strong vote for a trial. "uneducated" is a curable state of mind. in a country whose core religion is based on the pursuit of pure enlightenment, not proselytizing archaic edicts, i have to believe democracy has a reasonable chance of success.

i have to believe that -- but to think peace and prosperity is a safe bet in this (or any) corner of the world, is to pretend there is no fascist apocalypse on its western border and no fundamentalist madness brewing to the south.

here's hoping their better angels prevail.

[rxpharm]

Yes, have to agree with Thaibound pray that somehow peace can be restored in LOS, and something better can arise from these terrible events.

An interesting aside - I was chatting with an lb formerly from Chiang Mai, now married and living in Paris. When I informed her of the news and she checked the Thai language online news - she said she hopes that every Red Shirt is killed!

[Jake_Sully]

Somehow that doesn't surprise. I know a few thai's who can really get it on vocally in red vs yellow and they're blood sisters. Somehow its not quite disagreement, its past detesting each other.

[rxpharm]

The curfew for Bangkok has been announced as extending to Thursday as well - reports of fighting still going on in some areas. Now curfew has been extended until Sunday, no one on the streets from 9pm to 5am that means the bars will be closed.

[kahuna]

That includes 23 other provinces as well...The others weren't listed but I'm sure Chonburi/Pattaya is included...