BTS Closed -Tuesday April 27 2010

[kahuna]

And they promised to raid it again today...Nice folks those redshirts...

[Rick Shaw]

What will cause a fall in the value of the baht (IMHO)won't be the effect of the redshirts on the tourist economy, but the fallout from the political uncertainty. All the comments above about the effect on the economy can be modelled and assessed, but investors hate political uncertainty because, by definition, it cannot be assessed. So we have to wait for the possibility of the government falling or failing before the investors move out and the baht falls. Which is a buggar since I aim to be coming out again in June

Having said that, I remember reading in March that the Government was "going to take action" to reduce the strength of the baht because their agricultural commodities (particularly rice) were being priced out of the market. Perhaps they are keeping the baht artificially high (which wouldn't be that difficult or expensive, given that it can't be a widely traded currency unlike the $, Euro or cable).

Personally, I am budgetting on 50 to the £, falling to 45 next year. If I am wrong, then it's just upside (and that is really my view on the prospects for the £, not a general view of the baht against other currencies).

[whore]

The next rice harvest is in June Rickshaw so I cant see any massive improvements for June, but probably in the 8 or 10 weeks after that we should see it losing strength against other major currencies.

Rice is Thailands biggest physical export with 2 harvests a year, in January and June, with June being the biggest of both. Am hoping come August/September its about about 46baht to 1euro.

[Rick Shaw]

Which on my budget figures makes the £ at par with the Euro. Oh God.

I'm also out again in September, so if you see a farang begging in the street with a sign suggesting that he has a LB habit to support, give me a smile (and a euro or two!).

[whore]

I'd say it will be the same case with the pound aswell come August/September, but I should be in Thailand in September, so you could see me with a sign on the same street.

Mine will read "My family have been killed by ninjas, need money for kungfu lessons"

[guydesavoy]

Maybe you should try :   "Ligh'ers 5 for a pound"  

Always works on Henry Street

[f0xxee]

(whore @ May 01 2010,19:32) The next rice harvest is in June Rickshaw so I cant see any massive improvements for June, but probably in the 8 or 10 weeks after that we should see it losing strength against other major currencies.

Rice is Thailands biggest physical export with 2 harvests a year, in January and June, with June being the biggest of both. Am hoping come August/September its about about 46baht to 1euro.

Hi Whore,

I have always thought that the June harvest was the smaller as it follows the dry season and really is only for those with irrigation, where as the January harvest after the wet was the big one.

I know the family up in Isaan only plant Sticky and Jasmine rice in the wet (as does most of the neighborhood) in May/June, harvesting in December/January.

Mind you I believe the Central Plains (From Kanchanaburi across to Saraburi) are the most fertile Rice production areas... Do they run two crops a year there?
I am interested, not taking the piss, so let me know.

[whore]

Hi Foxxee you could and more than likely are right about the better harvests. I read it somewhere that June was the biggest harvest of the year, but I think it was in this or another forum.

Maybe some of you guys who are more financial savvy would know what to expect in the exchange rates if the Thai house of parliament is desolved in mid September for elections in November.

I might be making a trip in September, volcanic ash and civil unrest permitting of course. So just curious what you guys think will be the effect if any in the exchange rates in the lead up to elections?

[burnt_out]

It ain't looking good now re: exchange rate, just seen euro under 42bht, bummer. Can see it sliding to under 40 in a few weeks myself. So far it's lost nearly 18% since mid November 2009. That is a HUGE amount, no?

B_O

[f0xxee]

Hi Whore,
Interesting point about the baht pre-elections... The baht has dropped against the USD SLIGHTLY back from 32.2 to 32.4 since the "Roadway to Reconciliation" was sort of kind of agreed to by the Red shits.
Which makes you wonder if Snicks point about the baht being held artificially hight to hurt Thaksin's input of cash may not have been at least partially true. If so I would think the Baht would stay strong right up to the election to limit his $value for advertising for Puea Thai etc?
A point: They reckon whacky Thaki has spent 20 billion Baht to date on the redshirts... Ad that to what the courts took from back from him and it makes it a 100 Billion Baht loss for the year.... that has to hurt.

[whore]

The 20 million Baht figure for the red shirts seems on the high side. Although I wouldnt be surprised if alot of Thaksin's allies in Thailand have been lining their pockets with the money he is putting into the country for the red shirts. Red tshirts 10,000baht each and all that. You know how it goes.

I personally dont feel the Government have been keeping the baht strong to make the red shirts protests more expensive for Thaksin.

Its very hard to know what to expect in the currency markets recently as there is just to much uncertainty out there, especially for someone in the Euro zone changing to Baht. You have serious problems in Greece, with a fear of it spreading to Portugal, Spain and maybe even Ireland. Then on top of that you have the problems in Thailand and a looming election before my intended trip.

The exchange rates were never an issue with me before, but my next trip, for the first time ever I will be on a tight budget. I think right now I have it worked out at, After all flights and hotels, I will per each day of a 20 day stay, 2000baht for a companion for the night, then after that I only have 4900baht for alcohol and 100baht for food. If I lose that 100baht for food I might aswell stay at home

Its all a gone pear shaped

[kahuna]

Fucking Loonies...........

BREAKINGNEWS
 
Violent attacks on Silom -one policeman dead

One policeman was shot dead on Silom Road on Friday night and less than 3 hours later another violent bomb attack wound 4 policemen just in front of Lumpini Park on Rama IV Road.

The first attack ocurred on Friday night at 10.45pm just in front of Krung Thai Bank near Soi Saladaeng. A man on a bike fired bullets and hit 3 policemen and 2 passerbys. Pol.Cpl. Kannupan Lertchanpen who was shot in the stomach is dead.

Less than 3 hours later at 1.30am, there was an explosion near Gate 4 of Lumpini Park. Police spokesperson Pol Lt Gen Ponsatat Pongcharoen said that initially the police believed the grenades were M79 and the two attacks must be done by te same group of people who want to unstablize the situation.

UPDATE...Now two policemen dead...

LUMPINI ATTACK
Two policemen killed and many others injured in double attacks

At least two policemen were killed while seven others policemen and two civilians were wounded in the double shooting and bomb attack on Silom Road and at a police checkpoint at Lumpini Park on Friday night.

[Snick]

Nice map of all the hot spots in Bangkok,
http://maps.google.co.th/maps....e=embed

[Torurot]

Water, electricity cuts to Bangkok protest zone
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100512/...iland_politics
By THANYARAT DOKSONE, Associated Press Writer €“ 1 hr 23 mins ago

BANGKOK €“ The Thai government turned to siege tactics Wednesday after fruitless efforts to compromise with protesters barricaded in central Bangkok, announcing that the army would limit supplies of water, food and electricity to the protest zone.

Army spokesman Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd said security forces would "not use force at this stage," but his wording left open the possibility of more violence in Thailand's two-month political standoff if the Red Shirt protesters refuse to disperse.

"This is a full-scale measure to limit the freedom of protesters and to close down the area 100 percent, starting at midnight," Sansern said.

The measures include, cutting water, electricity and mobile phone signals to the protest zone and stopping bus, rail and boat services to the area, Sansern said, adding that authorities would also "seal off entrances to the area."

The announcement came a day after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva warned protesters who have paralyzed Bangkok's central business district to leave by Wednesday or face consequences that could also effect residents who live nearby.

Security forces may "implement measures that will have an impact on people in the area, not only the demonstrators but also workers and residents," Abhisit said.

The anti-government protests have crippled the capital's ritziest shopping district, forced the closure of several luxury hotels and devastated the economy, particularly the vital tourism sector. The protest zone spans about 1 square mile (3 square kilometers) and is bordered by upscale apartment high-rises and office buildings.

Chances of a negotiated settlement to the standoff appeared to be unraveling as the government toughened its tone and protesters vowed not to budge until their demands are met.

"Firstly, we are using our own electricity generators, so we are not dependent on the public power source," said a protest leader Jatuporn Prompan. "Secondly, if the government decides to cut water ... this will also effect half of the city. So, we do not care about the government's threat."

The mostly poor rural Thai protesters started their rally March 12 to demand that Abhisit call new elections, but they recently added a demand that his deputy face criminal charges for a deadly crackdown on their rallies.

"We will wait here. If we can't have justice, you can come take our lives away," said another protest leader Nattawut Saikua.

The Red Shirts include the rural and urban poor as well as pro-democracy advocates who see the Oxford-educated Abhisit as symbolic of an elite insensitive to the plight of most Thais. Many are supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist leader who was accused of corruption and abuse of power and ousted in a 2006 military coup.

Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said late Tuesday that the prime minister had lost patience and was rescinding his compromise offer to hold early elections on Nov. 14 as part of a reconciliation plan.

"He said there will no longer be any more compromises or conditions," Panitan told The Associated Press late Tuesday. "Their refusal to stop the protest meant that the conditions that were set are being canceled, including the election date."

Several violent incidents related to the Red Shirt protest have killed 29 people and wounded more than 1,400, according to the Health Ministry.

Abhisit last week told the Red Shirts €” who view his government as illegitimate €” that he was willing to hold new polls in November, more than a year before the end of his government's term. That was presented as part of a reconciliation package on the condition that the demonstrators end their protest.

The Red Shirts, who have been pressing for quick elections, said they agreed in principle, but on Monday added a list of conditions of their own including that Abhisit and his top deputy surrender to police over an April 10 attempt by security forces to disperse protesters that left 25 people dead.

"If petty issues keep being brought up, it's not going to end, because the government isn't going to compromise," Abhisit told reporters late Tuesday, adding that people's patience with the demonstrators had frayed.

"What is essential right now is to return normalcy to society," he said, adding that it must be done quickly.

[Snick]

I just hope the shit doesn't hit the fan till after Friday, 'cause I am out of here.