BTS Closed -Tuesday April 27 2010

[Snick]

Skytrain closed today, April 27, reports that Reds tried to sabotage the system.
There are also 6+ cases of H1N1 at the Red site.

TIT

[rxpharm]

Here's the story from The Nation

RED SHIRTS
Skytrains suspended after reds used tyres to block train tracks
By The Nation

Travelling by skytrains is paralysed Tuesday morning after a group of red shirts used tyres to block train tracks at Chidlom station, forcing the authority to suspend all services.

Skytrain authority is now negotiating with red shirts.

However red shirts leaders said on stage at Rajprasong rally site that the blocking is a decision by a group of red shirts, not by them.

At 5am, a group of red shirts carried tens of tyres and went up to Chidlom station. they then threw the typres onto the tracks.

The skytrain authority then ordered suspension of all skytrain services shortly before the scheduled openings at 6am.

There are a lot of people who wished to use skytrains to avoid traffic which is congested following heavy rains in early morning. They looked upset when learning that the services are suspended.

Skytrain executive Anat Apapirom said in an interview with a news programme on Tuesday morning that the red shirts also turned away security cameras at the station so that they would ot capture their actions.

It's sliding towards anarchy now in Bangkok and some of the northern provinces, with Red Shirts setting up check points to stop and search vehicles suspected of supporting the government.

[Snick]

"sliding" ?.....its slid

[f0xxee]

It appears to me the red shirt "Leaders" have lost control of their mob. Take note Sae Daeng and the rest of the red elite: It's one thing to start a grassroots movement, another to control the weeds.

This is what I have been scared of: That the leadership of the red shirts such as it is have no manifesto or preconceived goals other than the immediate dissolution of government. As that is not going to happen they are losing all authority.

With Reds stopping police movements in the NE and N, trains being delayed that are carry troops and now the sky train being sabotaged one starts to consider the roots maybe more anarchist in nature, with the disruption of the country by any means as the only goal. (No to mention attacks on power lines, fuel depots etc etc.)
The reds are really going all out to alienate themselves.
It must surely be only a matter of time before the vox populi get the total shits and start hammering them.
Perhaps that is the goal after all? Civil war?
Cui bono?
I wonder.....

[rxpharm]

Now BTS reported to open services again at 10 am.

Skytrain services resumed at 10am
By The Nation

Skytrain services are resumed at 10am after red shirts agreed to remove tyres they put on the trains' tracks in the morning.

The removal came as skytrain authorities negotiated with a group of red shirts who used the tyres to block the servies at Chidlom station at about 5am.

The authorities ordered the suspension of services at all stations shortly before 6am.

Earlier travelling by skytrains was paralysed Tuesday morning after a group of red shirts used tyres to block train tracks at Chidlom station, forcing the authority to suspend all services.

The red shirts leaders said on stage at Rajprasong rally site that the blocking is a decision by a group of red shirts, not by them.

At 5am, a group of red shirts carried tens of tyres and went up to Chidlom station. they then threw the typres onto the tracks.

There were a lot of people who wished to use skytrains to avoid traffic which was congested following heavy rains in early morning. They looked upset when learning that the services are suspended.

Skytrain executive Anat Apapirom said in an interview with a news programme on Tuesday morning that the red shirts also turned away security cameras at the station so that they would not capture their actions

Foxee, I think you may be right. Truly a sad situation if things deteriotate into a civil war.

[seamus]

All this shit & the Thai baht is still high against the Pound WTF

[mardhi]

Its more a reflection of how bad the pound is rather than the baht. The baht is not falling as the fundamentals of the economy are continuing to grow wierd as it may seem. (and I cant get my head round it either !!!!).

Cheers
Mardhi

[robbo]

i agree mate,just what the fook is going on ? country in a mess tourism down low season civil unrest civilian deaths and the baht dosnt move! eh? something not right here,possible that the baht may be heading for a very nasty fall at some point,in fact id wgaer this will happen.
cant understand why the govermant are not taking a stronger stance now,as this can now just fester,allowing these protest and acts of violence can only mean they can escaltae.
this should have been dealt with weeks ago,either by sitting down with the reds and talking and trying something then giving them clear warning and fast action or just acting fast to stop protest.this one aint going way anytime too soon.........neither is my hardon for that matter,so its either straight to Patts or Phuket from BKK airport or i miss LOS and go Brazil,i figure i will stick my erect cock in the free wind and let him decide which way will he shoot?.........east or west!

[rxpharm]

Snick posted a comment about this in another thread - that the Baht was being kept artificially high to force Thaksin to spend more to maintain funding of the Red Shirts. Not sure if this is true or not, but would not be surprised if this were the case.

robbo - enjoy your trip, whatever decision you make, but I don't think you could ever be disappointed with LOS!

[mardhi]

The Baht is not being kept artificially high - compared to other Asian currencies its hardly moved - the fundamental reason is that SO MUCH money continues to pour into Asia from other parts of the world (i.e people are switching out of other currencies into Asian investments). Thailand as an economy is still very very strong - forget tourism as while its fairly signifigant, its not as important as people think it is. Of course this data IS skewed as bar girls (+ LB's + guys etc) do not DECLARE the income - therefore its not effectively tracked - however from economic data - it does nto appear. Plus add in the fact that almost everyone is on the take VAT wise - means everyone has two sets of books to avoid paying taxes. Result of all this is that statistically, tourism is shown as being worth XXXX Baht, when infact its much much higher but its never able to be quantified.

Cheers
Mardhi

[robbo]

understood ,Thailand is a weird place as we know,not much seems to make sense,so really i can see that its not easy to predict whats going to happen.
i just somehow cannot see the country doing well out of the mess its getting itself into.
also over the next few years as western economies begin to rally and growth returns as it will ,as these are cycles which have been and gone before,just how will these things go for LOS is anyones guess.

[deepthroat]

Wow, interesting theories. Obviously anyone's guess is better than mine, but perhaps there could be a positive outcome - a silver lining - for mongers such as ourselves?

Imagine 2-3 years from now, and the world economy has rebounded, but LOS is still struggling to recover from the hole they've dug for themselves with the current policy of inaction. We'll assume the government is again stable, but tourism and trade haven't recovered yet.

Result - thai baht worth 1/2 it's current value, and our mongering dollar is returned to it's 1990 levels.

That would be farfetched but one can always dream.

[ezflip]

Agreed. All interesting views. Maybe the baht will drop (I hope) or it will rise through some weird economic equation.

The canadian dollar is now stronger than the US dollar, but it is not allowed to go up higher for fear of driving markets away.

John Keynes said it best. "Markets can remain irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent."

[Snick]

Currency Values are one of the hardest financial instruments to predict, some of the factors involved (in relative order)
Balance of trade
Reserves
Ease of movement (i.e. ability to move in/out quickly+cheaply)
Growth Prospects

For #1 and #2, Thailand is actually in great shape. As the recession hit the world Thailand's export declined but its imports declined more. That left Thailand with an improved balance of trade. Thailand also has very strong reserves.

For #3, Thailand gets a 'poor' rating but not horrible.

#4, Thailand Growth used to look good....now

If Tourism tanks, it will affect the balance of trade. Every tourist spending money in Thailand is equivalent to exporting something. Tourist money is also 'easy' money since tourists spend immediately and get bad exchange rates (compared to exports where you might get paid in 60 days and the currency exchange spread is tighter).

When using a model, one factors in legitimate and reported values. BUT the real world doesn't care about legit and 'grey'. If tourism is 6.5% of Legit GDP, but 10% of the real GDP. Then the 10% is what really matters, the trick is guessing the 10% number when so much of it is unreported.

Going Forward

#1 Balance of legit trade should remain same, tourism will be off 1/3. That equates to a 2-4% hit to GDP, significant but not huge.
( one data point, Stickman reports bar girls are getting less from sponsors ).

#2 no change

#3 getting worse

#4 Growth prospects look bad. Foreign investment will go down. Also the decline of imports probably means a lack of capital investment in factories,expansion, etc..

Another factor that is really difficult to model, is that tourism is a labor intensive industry, a decline in tourism will affect more people directly than would an equal decline in other industries.

Factoring all of the above in and reading the entrails of a freshly strangled goat, and I think the Baht will decline, at some point, but not by much.
Thats against the dollar, you Euro guys just got screwed Greek style.

[pacman]

Thanks for that excellent analysis Snick, I doff's me lid...      

When I wrote that I was told the Central Bank were keeping the baht strong to frustrate Thaksin I did so after hesitating to mention it on a few occasions because I also had doubts.

But my colleague in Bangkok reiterated the same thing again last week so I put it out there for comment.

I don't stand by it, it is just another theory.

As for tourisms role in the Thai economy, I have seen figures for the hard currency brought into the country by tourists & though I can't remember the numbers now, I was staggered at the estimated sums.

If each hospitality worker in LOS is responsible for 2, 3, 4 or more people, say on average 3, then the multiplier effect, & now the inverse loss, for the people who struggle to survive will be very hard felt indeed.

It may only represent 10% of the economy (though I suspect it is more), but amongst that 10%, there are so many of the poor who are the innocent victims in all this.

This attempt at another coup in Thailand is just a disaster for the innocent Thais who just want to get on with their life.

Thaksin must be able to see that a convincing victory by his forces is now a lost cause & the sooner the Thai agents can get to him & despatch him to the next world, the better.