Another competition

[smuttleydfs]

OK boys and girls

We in the league offices have decided to add another competition completely separate from the other league that has ran for the past 6 years. This will be the inaugural season for this league.

In this league you are free to pick any 4 games for the upcoming week that you wish but you have to pick against the spread...........IE if the Lions are favored over the Packers (this is never going to happen) by 6 1/2 and only win 30-24 and you have picked the Lions then you will lose but if you had picked the Packers you would win!!!! It is pretty much that simple. The standing will be based on your win/loss percentage so if you get 12 out of 16 in the first 4 weks then you would have a 75% winning percentage.....and you probably should be in Vegas or Atlantic City

We'd like to get a feel for how many would like to play this to see if it will fly so contestants line up at the door on the left.....never the right!!!!

[katoeylover]

i'm game!!

[Stogie]

Me too.

[PigDogg]

Me three.

[BlueBallz]

Me FOUR!!! this is gonna be great!! COME ON GUYS THE WATER IS JUST FINE. its fun!!

[BlueBallz]

What about you Smutts you in??

[Guest]

Simple in theory yes but what spread do we use? Do you post a vegas thread or do we pick the team and the points then end up with whatever the spread was at kickoff?

I'm in regardless and will make the first prediction. 59 % will win this competition.

[BlueBallz]

If someone picks 60% that will be good enough to win IMHO. I dont think 1 in 4 would get over 50%. It would depend on the sample size though.

As for the spreads, last season Stogie posted the lines from some online gambling site every week. i suggested that he or Smuttley do it about Wednesday US time. Lots of time games are "off the board" due to key injuries.

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!

[p4player]

I'll play. what happens if we miss a week?

[PigDogg]

Doing the math.........

If each game is a 50-50 shot then the probabilty of a contestant getting exactly 50% is
(68!/((34!)^2))*.5^68 approx 10%.

The probabilty of getting greater (or lower) than 50% is

{1-[(68!/((34!)^2))*.5^68]}/2 approx 45%

^ = power of
! = factorial

[PigDogg]

The general formula is:

n!/x!/(n-x)!*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x)

Since we are assuming that every game is a 50-50 shot then it simplifies to

n!/x!/(n-x)!*.5^n

since both p and (1-p) = .5

To test the formula lets say instead of 68 picks (4*the 17 week season) there were only 2 picks.

Prob of both right =2!/2!/0!* .5^2 =.25
Prob of one right = 2!/1!/1!*.5^2 =.5
Prob of zero right = 2!/0!/2!*.5^2 =.25

1! = 1
2!= 2*1
3! = 3*2*1 =6
4!= 4*3*2*1 =24
0! is defined as 1

[kevin4252]

In, and PD put the abacus away, I'm begging you !!!!

[TEXASMAC]

I ma in and the LIONS will be the Packers in one gane this year !!

[BlueBallz]

Fucking hell PD my HAIR hurts after that!!! All i know is that, over the course of the season, the books clean up!!!

What if you miss a week? i dont know Smutts what do you think?? I think everyone should be required to participate every week. If someone gets off to a good start or has a lead they can "miss" a week or go into the dreaded four corners offense!!

[kevin4252]

Smuttley, are we going to use the point spreads as posted by "Rusty Nail",

in the weekly picks thread. ? if so I am ready to go, kevin