The Line standings

[BlueBallz]

OK guys WEEK 9 is complete and we are rounding into place. Thaime continues to set a blazing pace and RustyNail was the only one to go a perfect 4-0 this week. Rusty has dragged himself up to the 500 mark. This week I have added %s to the mix. We almost have everyone on 36 picks. I have merged the lists with the exception of the late coming JD.

1) Thaime 2-2 25-11 69% (thats quite incredible)
2) Thaibound 3-1 19-13 59% (still has 4 picks to make up)
3) Kevin 2-2 21-15 58%
4) Piggdogg 1-3 20-16 56%
5) RustyNail 4-0 18-18 50%
6) Dieter 1-3 17-18-1 49%
7) TexasMac 2-4 13-16-1 45% (has 4 picks to make up)
8) Lefty 2-2 15-20-1 43%
9) KatoeyLover 2-2 15-21 42%
9) Blueballz 2-2 15-21 42%
11) EyeMahk 3-5 12-24 33%

JaiDee 1-3 1-3 25%

[BlueBallz]

Oh forgot to say if I made any errors please let me know!!!

[BlueBallz]

May I say only 4 winners out of 12!!!

[BlueBallz]

We are well into the season now and Thaime continues to run away with things. That can change over the course of a couple of weeks though-not wishing any bad luck on you though Thaime!! Yours truly went 4-0. Kevin aka The New Joisey Nightmare went perfect as well 0-4!!! Here are this weeks results, the overall standings and the % breakdown:

1) Thaime 2-2 27-13 68% (Well done lad)
2) PiggDogg 2-2 22-18 55%
2) Thaibound 3-5 22-18 55
4) Kevin 0-4 21-19 53
5) RustyNail 2-2 20-20 50
6) Blueballz 4-0 19-21 48 (maybe I know what I am doing-NOT!!!)
7) Lefty 3-1 18-21-1 46
7) Dieter 1-3 18-21-1 46
9) TexasMac 2-4 15-20-1 43 (4 picks to make up)
10) KatoeyLover 1-3 16-24 40
11) EyeMahk 2-2 14-26 35

JD-Picked last week but not this week. Went 1-3. Lets see if he will reappear-WHEREVER THE FUCK HE IS!!!!

Note: If I made any errors, please let me know and I will set things right!! The % are rounded UP in case anyone is wondering!!

[BlueBallz]

After 11 weeks it seems the dust is settling. Thaime continues to be the runaway leader with a blistering 66%. Like I thought there are only two actual "winners"-Thaime and PiggDogg @ 55%. Now there are ohter barely over 50% but for gambling purposes thats not "winning". You take the vigorish into account and you have to pick 53-54% of tha games correct.

Now this week nobody went 4-0. We had two 3-1 er. Take bows Lefty and Dieter. Here are the standings. Please send me a note if I made an error-totally innocent of course. EyeMahk was MIA this week so he has to make up 4 picks. How could he???

1) Thaime 2-2 29-15 66%
2) Piggdog 2-2 24-20 55
3) Kevin 2-2 23-21 52
3) Thaibound 1-3 23-21 52
5) RustyNail 2-2 22-22 50
6) Dieter 3-1 21-22-1 49
6) Lefty 3-1 21-22-1 49
8) Blueballz 2-2 21-23 48
9) TexasMac 4-4 19-24-1 43 (Mac has made up his picks and now on equal footing to the rest of us)
10) KatoeyLover 2-2 18-26 41
11) EyeMahk 0-0 14-26 35 (missed this week has 4 picks to make up)

THANKS FOR PLAYING ALL!!

[BlueBallz]

Correctin from WEEK 11: Thaibound notified me I screwed up the standings. He went 2-2 instead of 1-3 and he is now 24-20 for the season!! It pays to check my work. The site will dock me 25% of my wages!!!

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!

[BlueBallz]

OK guys this week week your truly and PiggDogg went a perfect 4-0. The Pigg is stalking the current leader Thaime who has cooled off just a tad. Please, if I have gotten anything wrong let me know and I will correct things!

WEEK 12 Standings:

1) Thaime 2-2 31-17 65%
2) Piggdogg 4-0 28-20 58
3) Thaibound 3-1 27-21 56
4) Kevin 3-1 26-22 54
5) Blueballz 4-0 25-23 52
5) RustyNail 3-1 25-23 52
7) Dieter 2-2 23-24-1 49
8) Lefty 1-3 22-25-1 47
9) TexasMac 0-0 19-24-1 44 (missed this week has 4 picks to make up)
10) KatoeyLover 2-2 20-28 42
11) EyeMahk 4-4 18-30 38

OK guys we are now in the final stretch!!! Four out of 11 54% or above. Nice one!!!

[Bumpa STIKKA]

1) Thaime 2-2 31-17 65%

[BlueBallz]

Yes, thats quite an achievement. Only 5 more weeks to go. If he finishes over 66% perhaps a prize is in order........

[PigDogg]

(BlueBallz @ Dec. 02 2009,07:54) Yes, thats quite an achievement.  Only 5 more weeks to go.  If he finishes over 66%

With five weeks to go their are 20 more games to pick. The probabilty of picking exactly 13correct is:

20!/13!/7!*.5^13*.5^7 assuming that every game is a 50-50 shot.

But then you'd have to add to that the probabilty of getting exactly 14 plus the probabilty of getting exactly 15 right etc. etc.

The general formula is n/x!/(n-x)!*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x).
with p being the probabilty of a win, n the number of games played, x the number of victories, ! is factorial, ^ raises to a power, / divides,
and * multiplies.

This is an approximation though since this their is no provision for pushes that can easily be built into a binomial distribution.

Probably the easist way to get one's p above .5 or 50% is to look for line changes since Rusty's spread is posted early in the week. Dogs cover more than 50% of the time so picking dogs might improve one's p. I think Monday night victors cover less than 50% if their next game is on the road so that's another strategy.

Gotta headache yet Kev?

[kevin4252]

you're fucking killing me, you know that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BlueBallz]

Kevin-give me a call and let me know what Boby said!!!

[Thaime]

Damn PigDogg!  The probabilty of me understanding
what the fuck you said is Zero Percent plus or minus 0%

[PigDogg]

(PigDogg @ Dec. 02 2009,11:20) The general formula is n/x!/(n-x)!*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x).
with p being the probabilty of a win, n the number of games played, x the number of victories, ! is factorial, ^ raises to a power, / divides,
and * multiplies.

Probably the easiest way to understand it is to work through a specific example.

Let's use the formula for one week only. Since there are 4 games, n = 4.

Let's assume p, the probabilty of success = 50% or .5 which would be the assumption that the individual picker is no better than a random monkey. Then 1-p also = .5

What is the probabilty of picking exactly two games right out of the four?

That means x = 2, x is the number of games picked correctly.

That makes n-x = 4-2 =2.

4! = 4*3*2*1 =24

2!= 2*1 =2

Note 0! is defined as 1.

Let's plug in the numbers.

24/2/2*.5^2*.5^2 =.375 or 3/8 is the chance you'll pick exactly 2 right out of 4.

Chance of 0 right = 1/16
Chance of 1 right = 4/16
Chance of 2 right = 6/16
Chance of 3 right = 4/16
Chance of 4 right = 1/16

This all adds up to 16/16 or 1.

Note this assumes no pushes are possible which we know is not true.

You can set p anywhere between 0 and 1 and the sum of the probabilty of all the possible x's will = 1.

If one thinks they're a good picker you could set p at .55 for example. Or a great picker might have a p of .6.

Hey, I know this isn't for everyone, but if you like math it can be interesting.

[kevin4252]

you wouldnt have a goddamn thing to say if you had gone 0-4 last week now would you??
I pity those poor fares of yours on trips from the Village to JFK !!!!!!!