4 Scenarios for the Coming Collapse of US Empire

[deepthroat]

Agree with you there Azza. As I've made clear, I abhor many of the practices of my government; the short-sightedness of many of my countrymen; the lack of integrity and honesty that has become common to much of the industry associated with it; and the loss of freedoms that we have participated in by being sheoples and acquiescing to fear and voluntarily giving up the rights that were so hard-won in the first place.

BUT, with all that said, I think (hope) it's premature to count us out.

Yes, I think we're dying a slow death right now of a thousand cuts by spending beyond our means, and spending on the wrong things - international colonialism instead of infrastructure, education, and social programs at home. Eisenhower said it best when he warned that someday we could lose sight of the tradeoff between the military/industrial and things like education, forgetting that the purchase of a bomber means we don't have that money available to build a school or hospital. And I think our military efforts are insane, and are driven by corporate greed rather than any sort of true ethical goal. We're not making the world safe for democracy, we're making the profits enormous for Boeing and Haliburton.

Sorry, I continue to digress. What I meant to say is that I still don't believe we're inherently bad or stupid. I think the USA has been and can continue to be a force of good in this world. We have an amazing engine of commerce, the freedom and intellect and drive to succeed and reinvent ourselves, abundant natural resources, and millions of caring, educated citizens that want to make the world - not OUR world, but THE world - a better place.

Don't count us out just yet. We're going through a difficult period. Our Supreme Court has given corporate powers the right to purchase legislative interests outright. We're in 2 wars we shouldn't be and a few hundred bases we have no business having. But I still think there's hope for us.

And like Azza said, would you prefer to root for us, or the Chinese? The Iranians?

[mardhi]

I dont think anyone is suggesting that they want a change - the article just seems to sum up pretty well that the change is happening already and its unlikely to stop. The simple facts are that the US is already way to deep in the quicksand to be able to get out. As i say, I dont relish the thought of what will happen in the future, but it seems the lessons have not been learnt from the past.

Think about 'sovereign wealth funds' and how is it that previously second rate economies have built up huge reserves of cash and wealth yet still claim US aid for many things. Thailand is a good example - they are beneficiaries of huge amounts of money - yet spend hardly any of there own cash on their own people. Its Philanthropy all gone wrong. The rich (who are not really rich anymore due to their debt) are giving shed loads of money to countries who have hoarded all the wealth among the elite and kept it out of GDP figures and the such like. They then educate their kids in the 'elite countries' to absorb the knowledge and then apply it in their own businesses not for the good of their countries. These countries are seriously laughing their heads off at how short sighted the 'rich' countries are. Its not rocket science to see where this will end up. And people wonder the likes of asian currencies are rocketing upwards !!!!

[azza33]

Think about 'sovereign wealth funds' and how is it that previously second rate economies have built up huge reserves of cash and wealth yet still claim US aid for many things. Thailand is a good example - they are beneficiaries of huge amounts of money - yet spend hardly any of there own cash on their own people. Its Philanthropy all gone wrong.

It's actually monopoly as a wise Greek friend of mine used to remind me -- if you keep all the cash to yourself... then nobody can play the game.

[guydesavoy]

Yes, an 'interesting' article.

A lot of hyperbole and 'joining the dots' based on disparate assumptions that would all need to be correct to support the dire outcome(s) predicted.

There is no doubt that a shift is in the wind. The U.S will no longer 'dominate' in the future as in the recent past.

However, one thing is becoming clear. The inter-dependence of all Nations.

Looking at the bigger picture, even if the likes of Russia will provide a large proportion of energy needs, and China and India grow in economic influence, these things do not happen in a vacuum. They too have their own issues (domestically, politically and economically) and depend on others likewise for their various needs. The OPEC Nations have had a near monopoly on oil. Yet they haven't 'taken over' the World either. Inter-dependence again...

Inter-dependence wil be the dominant trend moving forward..

The era of Empires is the only thing coming to an end.

[Bumpa STIKKA]

(azza33 @ Dec. 12 2010,16:02) i enjoy the fucked up corrupt freedoms the western society allows...

I prefer the fucked up corrupt freedoms the Eastern society allows!

Different strokes, eh?

Whilst The West is doomed it's Europe that will suffer the most. It's unyielding belief in the child like myth that one big market will win out is unraveling as we speak.

The US on the other hand (as has been mentioned by manarak) have the gumption, resources and optimism to keep going.

[azza33]

(azza33 @ Dec. 12 2010,16:02)
QUOTE
i enjoy the fucked up corrupt freedoms the western society allows...

I prefer the fucked up corrupt freedoms the Eastern society allows!

Different strokes, eh?

Give me time and i'll be doing the same  

[mardhi]

(Bumpa STIKKA @ Dec. 12 2010,16:45) The US on the other hand (as has been mentioned by manarak) have the gumption, resources and optimism to keep going.

Except for one key commodity - Oil. There is no way the USA can change their reliance on this fuel in 10 years. There is no way, the consumption in China or India will go down either. That is one of the key points the guy is trying to make - the US is too dependant on foreign oil and the supply line of that is insured by a strong military - exactly the same as when Britain was raping and pillaging the colonies in the 1800's - It was the Royal Navy that ensured those products got back to the UK by keeping the seaways clear (not really for anyone else - they were there primarily to look after the interests of the British East India Company.

Going back in history to WW2 - many of the key strategic victories occured as a result of cutting the supply line for fuel. It took a while for some commanders to realise that it was actually much easier to go after the fuel supply than to continue going head to head with a couple of hundred tanks. Eliminate the fuel chain and they are sitting ducks. Huge amount can be learned from military strategy of old battles.

So Oil is flowing into the US and to a large degree into Europe as demand can be met at the moment. However that can spike and spike big time. This then compounds when the other countries try to force a move away from oil being priced in US$. Think who owns most of US debt? Its China. So they start playing another game and offer to buy oil in YUAN - its not yet a freely traded currency BUT it will be one day. If your Sheik Mohammed and you like to hedge your bets - what would you be considering ? Hmmm a guy wants to buy a LOT of my oil and he is offering to pay us in a as yet non freely traded currency and the US$ is heading south in value. who you placing your bets on?

Certainly thought provoking stuff - so best we forget it all and get back to ladyboys - as there aint nothing we can do about it anyway LOL.

Cheers
Mardhi

[Jake_Sully]

Very nice points, but in theory an option not yet considered is that the US could just go after Venezuela and no one would blink an eye since its in our own neighborhood back door.

But whoever owns the oil holds the chips and in this case brings the mightiest bidder into a quicksand - that being the Muslim populace. China already has a big Muslim problem as does India which is next door in Pakistan. The US might pull out but do you honestly think the mullahs hell bent on destroying anyone not Muslim will quietly watch oil pipelines be built and oil being transported from the middle east to China and maybe India? Things are not that simple.

Yes I think the United States is overextended and wasting time and money and lives policing the world, but if China takes over, they will have to police the world too sooner or later just to protect their own interest to guarantee a constant supply line of oil. If you think I'm kidding read up on the Uyghurs and Western China. Currently only liberals are incensed at what China does to its own people. Enter China onto the global stage and playing the role the US is playing now and they'll be exactly the same bulls eye target for the terrorists, that the US is currently.

I personally think China realizes that, and since they're smart so they're going to try and get the US try to do their dirty work for them, well as much as the US can anyways. China is every bit as 2 faced as anyone.

[Torurot]

It's FAR cheaper to BUY oil at any price, than to pay for armies to "defend"/steal it. Some grades of fuel in parts of Afghanistan are currently costing all up US$400/gallon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As some say "you do the math".

[azza33]

Chess is played more than one move in advance!!

[manarak]

(Torurot @ Dec. 13 2010,02:24) It's FAR cheaper to BUY oil at any price, than to pay for armies to "defend"/steal it.   Some grades of fuel in parts of Afghanistan are currently costing all up US$400/gallon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  As some say "you do the math".

Supply is not a question of price.

If there is no one willing to sell for USD there won't be anything toi buy and if the strategic supply routes are not secure the stuff will simply not reach the buyer.

I do not see oil being a very big problem for the US in the next ten, twenty years.
Oh sure, the price will be a pain in the ass, but the effects will be comparable to what happened to Europe.
Also, the US still have many untapped oil reserves, as well as huge oil fields in Canada. It is there, it just costs more to extract.


The biggest challenge is production costs.

Before, the west had superior technology, so we could produce many products the chinese and other nations couldn't, and at the same time, the technology used in production processes helped to drive down the production costs, so that the western world kept its competitive advantage in many production.

Today, there is not much the Chinese are not able to make themselves, thanks to technology transfers and western-educated chinese students who returned home after graduating.

So we have got high labor costs and 40 hours weeks, while the competition has low labor costs, and we don't have much of a technological advantage anymore, not to mention that our workforce for large part even doesn't want to work, but happily received healthcare and retirement aids, unemployment benefits, etc.


Europe and the US must succeed in the challenge of bringing down labor costs and cost of living. Main drivers are:
- food
- housing
- social benefits

That or closing borders for competing foreign products (which will have the same effect in the long run).

[Torurot]

Well you need to increase/apply a transaction tax on the "free" [untaxed] flow of the TRILLIONS of $$$$ everyday that have no "productive" use. Why should that be the only sector exempt from tax?

[azza33]

You are a communist!!

[manarak]

(Torurot @ Dec. 13 2010,14:22)  Well you need to increase/apply a transaction tax on the "free" [untaxed] flow of the TRILLIONS of $$$$ everyday that have no "productive" use.  Why should that be the only sector exempt from tax?

If you read my previous posts on how to tax businesses, then you know that I would tax the big money money.

BUT:
impeding financial transactions does not help to drive down prices, quite the contrary in fact, because the cost of money would just rise to compensate for tax losses.

and another consequence would be that that money will just flow elsewhere, out of reach of your greedy and envious communist fiscal claws.

[Steff]

Alas the "ying and yang" of all is represented well on this forum. This is why I like it so much.