The Euro is fucked

[Tomcat]

IMO

its all going to end in tears and maybe sooner rather than later. It pretty obvious now that the EU is going to have a few big problems very soon and if Italy topples/defaults its the end for not only the Euro but the EU as well as a going concern

reading some of the weekend financial pages its obvious that some big shit is going to hit the fan before the summers out and the blunt fact is the Euro is finished .

[Jake_Sully]

And ofcourse all these fox news, msnbc anchors are telling people to invest in the euro/ germany's firms now and avoid the dollar because its "too strong". Have you seen it lately?

I really think the people who shout the loudest on tv are the ones without a clue or they want other people to bail out their mistakes.

Edit: for example, Peter Schiff said this recession was coming and fox business anchors laughed at him.

And then look at this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37764344

[Snick]

Politicians will go to extraordinary measures to not admit mistakes, and that means more euro-bandaids ™.
But at the end there are only two scenarios
1) Keep the Euro, and watch the PIIGS have anemic gdp growth as they slash costs and raise taxes to pay off their Euro debt.
2) ditch the Euro, but this would also require repricing all Euro denominated debt into local currencies that would then deflate.....suckers

oh yea option 3, merge all the economies in the Euro zone so there is a single budget...like thats going to happen.

[Chinaman]

Could it be that comments about a lost Euro contain some wishful thinking?

What are the options? Back to 16+ currencies again?

Of course everything is possible but I don't even know whether giving up the Euro would be a good idea, and I do not only mean for Europe but for the world in general.

Not too long ago there were rumors that the falling Pound made England think of switching to the Euro. I know that the Brits will say NEVER EVER but like the consolidation in other industries (car, airline, etc.) perhaps we might see fewer currencies in the years to come - of course this will mean to give up certain emotional attachments and the national pride connected to local currencies ...

I once heard a statement from a politician back home - he was citing his father who had been through different currency-changes due to the 2 wars in Europe - he said: "It doesn't matter so much what our currency might be, as long as people have enough money."

Just a thought ...

[f0xxee]

I watched the new British Gov'ts first budget tonight. (Yes I know.... Little old thrill seeking me.) It seemed mature and rational. They might even achieve what they have the mandate to do.

[transcebu]

This was an inevitable result of government centralization. Schiff and the Austrian School of economists have seen it coming from the beginning. The US dollar may not be far behind. I've been telling people to get on gold since 2000 and it's probably still the safest place to be. Real gold, not contracts which it will likely turn out there is 10oz owned on paper for each 1oz stored.

Fractional Reserve Banking, a flawed system waiting to collapse.

[f0xxee]

The trouble is we still got to get paid in something. I get paid in USD. It sucks but is better than the option. (not getting paid at all.)

[pacman]

All fiat currencies fail..... eventually. Check recorded history, there have been no exceptions.

But I doubt I will see the Euro go under in my life time. There is too much at stake & too many stake holders with real power to see to that.

Germany has been less than sincere in complaining about the PIIGS, once they realised that all the bad news was dragging the exchange rate down thus improving conditions for their exporters, they were happy to go along with the bailout.

I no longer fret about the bad news about one currency or another. I only suspect the motives of those who promote the stories.

But eventually they will be right, just not yet.

[guydesavoy]

I wonder what Wagner would think about the current Euro 'crisis'.

[Tomcat]

Im not excatly sure of the timing Paccers but i think within 5 years it will not be a single currency as we know it now. By the end of this summer there is going to be some real serious shit in the Mediterra

anyway, im optimistically pessemistic as usual

[Chinaman]

From today's POV the Euro is at least not as f*cked (yet) as the French national soccer team down in S.A. ...

[manarak]

Pacman:

All fiat currencies fail..... eventually. Check recorded history, there have been no exceptions.

This is a bit irritating, since the above is a statement of the obvious, since all fiat currencies can be put into 2 categories:
1- failed fiat currencies
2- fiat currencies which have not failed yet
This is not up to your usually high level of reasoning!


Regarding the EURO, I agree that it is fucked in its current form, but I don't think it will disappear.

As long as Germany and France are behind the EURO, the currency will continue to exist.

I think the EU will do what all politicians do in such a situation: decide on a bailout for the struck countries.
I.e. when there is a problem, just vote it away and tell the creditors that their money is lost.

This will crash the EURO.
But this is also a huge advantage for EU-industries for export, and make import products much more expensive, including energy --> China, Russia.

Then there are several possibilities:

- We all keep the EURO and the southern countries are put on the paper "under control"... it will not really happen, but the situation will be appeased for 3-4 years until the next crisis happens (I see this as the most plausible)

- Only some countries drop out of the EURO: Greece, Portugal, Spain, ... Their foreign debt will be kept denominated in EUR

In any case, choose another currency for your holdings.

[transcebu]

(f0xxee @ Jun. 22 2010,21:41) The trouble is we still got to get paid in something. I get paid in USD. It sucks but is better than the option. (not getting paid at all.)

Sure, while civilization exists, we must have money. Unfortunately, a free market in currencies doesn't exist, if it was allowed, a 100% gold backed currency would win out I'd guess.

A demand for fiat currencies won't run out over night, but it's quite possible we could see a shift to more stable currencies, perhaps the Chinese renmimbi. Such a dramatic turn might spurn revolutionary changes such as the US returning to a gold backed currency.

The End the Fed bill in the US is evidence of a coming revolution in the US monetary system. Let's hope things change for the better before the US turns into Zimbabwe with hyperinflation which would send the country into times that would make the great depression look like a cake walk.

[guydesavoy]

(manarak @ Jun. 22 2010,22:20) Regarding the EURO, I agree that it is fucked in its current form, but I don't think it will disappear.

As long as Germany and France are behind the EURO, the currency will continue to exist.

Correct. This is just common sense. Whatever there is to 'lose' by propping up dodgy economies, there is far more to lose by dumping the Euro in toto...most of all politically.

Remember Wagner

[BlueBallz]

But what did The Bilderbergers have to say about all this when they met recently in Spain??