2009 Football Season

[BlueBallz]

I still say the best way to find out who the best picker is is using the "spread". Stogie thinks thats too difficult a concept to clasp especially for our Non North American bretheren. But I am constantly reminded on the net how stoopid us Yanks are so I guess if we can grasp it, it cannot be too tough to figure out. Thats my 2 bahts worth anywhoooo!!

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!!

[katoeylover]

Why is the spread the best method?
Its only a form of handicapping right?

surely if 2 teams are playing its easier then to pick winners and losers?

I dont get how the "spread" makes you a better picker?

[BlueBallz]

The "spread" is a leveler. It doesnt make anyone a better picker but it is a fairer test to see who is THE better picker. I wold submit that less than 20% of us would be better than 50-50 picking AGAINST the spread....

[Guest]

A spread is a large table full of food.

[PigDogg]

(BlueBallz @ Aug. 03 2008,16:48) I would submit that less than 20% of us would be better than 50-50 picking AGAINST the spread....

Suppose every game was a coin flip. The the picks would follow a binomial distribution where p = .5

In real life every game, even with the spread, is not a coin flip. If someone is an expert picker then their p, or probabilty of success would be somewhat greater than .5

In order to make money betting football one's p must be high enough to overcome the bookies vig which is not an easy task.

Someone picking randomly by definition has a p of .5. However that person will have lucky weeks and unlucky weeks. Over the course of a season his winning percentage will be about .5 or 50%. Over the course of multiple seasons his winning percentage will be extremely close to 50%.

[smuttleydfs]

(BlueBallz @ Aug. 03 2008,08:05) I still say the best way to find out who the best picker is is using the "spread".  Stogie thinks thats too difficult a concept to clasp especially for our Non North American bretheren.  But I am constantly reminded on the net how stoopid us Yanks are so I guess if we can grasp it, it cannot be too tough to figure out.  Thats my 2 bahts worth anywhoooo!!

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!!

I agree with my esteemed colleague Blueballz that picking against the spread would provide more of a "challenge" but with the pickers being spread all around the globe and the spreads changing almost daily and right up to the kickoff it would be way too difficult to have the picks based on the spread..........besides when I pick I choose the 5 games that are closest by the spread in either Monday or Tuesdays Sagarin ratings in the USA Today sometimes these games are either coinflips or 1/2 point spreads which are impossible to make a choice against the spread.

If we could hold off listing the games until the Friday before the games then we could go against the spread but then I don't think we would get the level of participation that we do now.

I think it is better to utilize the K. I. S. S. method for the time being.............

[smuttleydfs]

(BIGMACNTXS @ Aug. 03 2008,07:12) Mr Smuttle all I can say is your aviator here is PERFECTION, As a 1982 graduate I need to say GO BLUE !  

Welcome BigMac!!!!!!      

Nice to have another fan of the greatest college football school in the NCAA on the board here!!!!!

Ignore MM he's atypical of the Luckeye fans.....you know inbred with a mullett and a 5th grade diploma        Can't even the luckeyes colors right

Still love you miramarky mark  




 

[PigDogg]

(BIGMACNTXS @ Aug. 03 2008,20:29) A spread is a large table full of food.

Thighs wide open.

[JaiDee]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn....adlines

Bombs away!!

Favre returns to the Pack..... can we get an over-under on picks for this season please?

  I'd say if he plays 16 games it should be set at LEAST at 30!

http://images.google.com/imgres?....rl=http  

   Thanks Brett, you make watching NFC games fun!!  

[BlueBallz]

The lines dont chane more than a point between the Tuesday and gametime. The books are masters at producing lines and their livlihood depends on it.

It would seem if you flipped a coin you shold go 50-50 v the spread. The books wouldnt care as they would get the 10% vig and be happy but, trust me, as a rule they earn much more than that. The betting public LOVES favorites, hence, the books almost always are rooting for the dogs. A recent exception to this rule was last years Super Bowl when they lost money when the Giants easily covered v the Pats. But what they wont tell you is how much money was lost by people loading up on the "chalk" betting the Pats on the money line!! Whoever did that got HAMMERED!!

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!!

[JaiDee]

(BlueBallz @ Aug. 05 2008,00:43)  Whoever did that got HAMMERED!!

I'll tell ya who got bombed..... the NYC- area bookies!

must've lost their freaking shirts

whereas Boston area fellows made out just fine

[BlueBallz]

The old time books would have laid off some of the action-if they had any sense. The way it is now is that there is a lot of stuff done offshore on the net. Its swings and roundabouts really but they win in the long run!!!!

[Guest]

Smuttleydfs, that is the best group of luckeye chearleaders in post 22 in a long time. The ladies in luckeye land are improving.

[mirimark]

Speaking of Football. Fuck the Budwieser this season. Found a new beer to drink that will knock your dick in the dirt fer the season. " Sierra Nevadas " Pale Ale.

My new football drink. So for me, Football will last year round.

[smuttleydfs]

In an effort to get max participation this year I am giving everyone an almost 4 week lead time to post the first week's picks. By Tuesday evening US eastern time I will have the first weeks games and commentary up!!!!

So no excuses boys and girls this year!!! You will still be able to make changes on your picks up until an hour before the first game kicks off by PMing me or Stogie or PiggDogg.

More to cummmmmmmmmm