Thai Baht set to drop against EUR

[manarak]

From my point of view, the Thai Baht is bound to drop against EUR:

- the forward positions of the BOT are at a low
- the cash reserves are still high, but could be exhausted in 2 to 4 months
- BOT needs to let the Baht slide, because exports are stalling (-18% in november)
- the 2008/2009 tourist season will be disastrous (maybe they try to hold out until the high season is over, because of more expenses by tourists).

I see the EUR at 60 to 65 Baht for one EUR in 3 to 6 months.

Not so the dollar: the US need to let the dollar slide even more, because of their huge debt and their bad economy (stimulate exports). Then you've got the zero-rate policy of the FED as well as helicopter Ben...
I wonder where the USD-slide will then halt? 1,70? 1,80? or maybe 2 USD for one EUR ?
This would considerable easen the US debt situation, but will central banks let this happen?

The chinese too are preparing for a major downturn and will be forced to devaluate the RMB to boost exports.

[dutch]

(manarak @ Dec. 22 2008,12:27) From my point of view, the Thai Baht is bound to drop against EUR:

I see the EUR at 60 to 65 Baht for one EUR in 3 to 6 months.

You're a financial expert ?? (if yes, you probably will be wrong)  

[dummy_plug]

Tourism cannot be influenced by the baht alone, just as exports cannot, so any management of the baht for those purposes will fail miserably as there are more external factors than the BOT can manage.

Also, Eurozone will be forced to slash their interest rates aggressively too. So actually, I think the USD-EUR rate will remain in a relatively narrow band, although it will hurt both currency's performance again the baht unless Thailand is forced drop its interest rate that low as well, which it has not done so far and probably won't in the forseeable future.