Looming crisis in Bkk

[rxpharm]

For those of you who follow the weird machinations of Thai politics, it seems another climax is nearing.

A couple of years ago there was a bloodless coup to get rid of Thaksin justified by claims of the increasingly corrupt and unilateral rulings of the TRT ruling party.

After democratic elections the PPP won the most seats but not enough for an outright majority. The PPP supports Thaksin and has been actively working to eliminate the investigations and corruption charges that have been instigated. In addition loyal Thaksin supporters have been rewarded with plum political appointments despite total lack of qualifications. This focus has caused the government to neglect tacking the real problems facing the country and is causing a slide into crisis.

Of course the PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) that started the protests against Thaksin are active again and now threaten to march on the gov't house.

As reported by the Nation and Bangkok post today approximately 3000 protesters are attempting to march to Government House to demand the ruling coalition to resign. Police have been instructed to stop the advance.

Violence is highly likely - if it occurs it will only make things worse.

If this happens I would suggest any visitors to LOS be cautious and alert until things settle down. Avoid any areas where there are protestors and making political comments about Thailand.

You can read about the situation on the Bangkok Post website: Bangkok Post and the Nation website: The Nation

TIT!

[stogie bear]

As the world gets more complicated so does the role of governments trying to control it.

Politics is a career for the power hungry and we shouldn't really expect too much from them that will benefit anyone but themselves.

At the moment I'm sensing a global backlash against politics and polititions and funnily enough while the world goes through something of a costly and bloody 'revolution' over the next decade or so the USA will probably come out of it relatively unharmed if Obama gets his way.

The saying "Too many cooks spoil the broth!" comes to mind. Pakistan seemed to be fairly peaceful up until a year or so ago when Musharraf power seemed suddenly assailable. The strong leaders like Thatcher, Reagan, Churchill, etc who could galvanize the will and energy of a whole country have all but disappeared off the political landscape.

With the added burdens of food and fuel costs and the publicity that is easily achieved by holding strikes and protests the world is scary wherever you live, these days.

Fortunately for us in Thailand (at east while the current monarch is still around) we are going to get an easy ride compared to most.

[Snick]

Stay away from the Khao San road area, and the government area next to it.
Sukhemvit and Patpong should be ok, unless there is an actual coup.

Currently there are 10,000-20,000 protesters trying to surround the government building and "shut it down". The fight on the outside is matched by fighting on the inside, with the Democrats trying to pass a no-confidence measure against the Prime Minister.

Chance of coup in the next month, 40% ( and a 40% of the government dissolving and new elections being called ).

[stogie bear]

It's also worth remembering that the problems and protests that Thais are currently experiencing are over entirely domestic matters. These will almost never affect farangs or other foreigners that carry on their normal lives, at least not in a violent or controversial way.

It's not like there is an uprising against global warming or the war in Iraq or something else that farangs could be held accountable for.

I'd side with Snick over the odds on another coup... It seems increasingly likely that Thai people (and the military?) won't tolerate the same malaise and corruption of power that lead to the recent coup.

[PigDogg]

I'll take the under on this one. 40% is a bit high for any one particular month IMHO.

But I wouldn't bet my tool on it!

Still 9 days left in June for a 7 Days In May scenario. Or maybe in the soi dog days of August.

[kevin4252]

ahh, bite your tongue will ya PigDogg, i'm already booked for August, I'm gonna put the blame on
feckin Gizmo anyway !!

[manarak]

jeez, I am going there in 2 weeks!

I have to imagine some story in order to have it ready in case I can't take the flight home on time...

Otrherwise it would go like:

- "there is a coup in Thailand now, and the airport has been shut down"
- " ... (gasp)" " - " " -- " ... "WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING IN THAILAND "
- "ummm... you probably won't laugh, but ironically the answer is in your question"



BTW: was Thaksin good or bad for the gogo scene?

[jadeite]

Apparently democracy doesn't work in some places. Thaksin was elected democratically--twice. It was indisputable he would win again so they staged a coup to solve that problem. Then they told the people they are too dumb to elect a leader on their own. Then they got down to work and "fix" the constitution, black mail the people into ratifying it, jail many opposition "trouble makers", prohibit peaceful demonstrations, and hold a rigged election with many politicians excluded. But despite it all, the battered and weakened opposition won!!! It happened because the poor regions where our ladyboys come from an absolute avalanche of voters had spoken decisively. Can you imagine a politician winning a whopping 97% of a state in the US? It happened in Thailand. Several small parties quickly joined in to give the new govt a true majority and all seemed settled democratically and peacefully. But then the newly elected leader goes into limbo whether he will be allowed to assume control and now a short time later comes under fire to step down and there are calls for the guy who lost (but "should" have won) to take charge. This has not been pretty for democracy.

It could come down to greed. Thaksin spread wealth to the poor areas of the country which made him and his party very popular even to this day. This irks the people who are used to getting all the money to themselves.

By the way Thaksin was VERY bad for the gogo scene. He put someone in charge of Bangkok with a real burr up his arse to crack down on everything which he did and methodically destroyed much of the nightlife. Some is slowly recovering, some seems gone for good. But I don't see the new government doing any more to whitewash Thaksin than his enemies went on a witch hunt against him. But Thaksin is just a fly on the wall now anyway.

If you are a tourist I wouldn't worry about it. Thailand will welcome you no matter what happens and the country will be safe if you stay out of the hot spots like you are supposed to anyway.

[rxpharm]

jadeite, about the only thing I can agree with you is that Thaksin was very bad for the go go scene and the PPP is just the same. The interior minister Chalerm has been forcing the bars to close earlier outside of the "entertainment zones" NEP was closing at 1:00 am and sometimes even midnight, while Patpong was closing 2:00 am and sometimes 1:00 am.

Thaksin enriched himself, family members, and cronies at Thailand's expense several times over while he was in power. Democratically elected by paying a measly 500 baht per person in the rural areas of Thailand to buy votes. By the way the rural people did not significantly improve during his reign either - they had some temporary help that was wasted instead of long lasting reform that could have bettered their lives.

This is not to say the opposition is any better - Thai politics has been all about making the politician self interests ahead of the people - Thaksin was not any different.

[gizmo]

(kevin4252 @ Jun. 21 2008,03:46) ahh, bite your tongue will ya PigDogg, i'm already booked for August, I'm gonna put the blame on
feckin Gizmo anyway !!

Nothing to do with me!
I'll be home by August!

[jadeite]

(rxpharm @ Jun. 22 2008,01:43) Democratically elected by paying a measly 500 baht per person in the rural areas of Thailand to buy votes.

500 baht payoffs??? That is a fairytale for people who can't come to terms with the fact he is so beloved by countless millions. What makes the 500 baht bribe so ludicrous is as far as I have seen no information exists about it outside the little heads of a few farang Thaksin haters. If you think there is even a shred of truth to the 500 baht bribe, then please supply ONE reference to it. What, you can't? What a surprise. Then how can a conspiracy involving this many millions be such a perfectly kept secret world wide? Election fraud is a very serious offense. The tiniest incidents are instantly circulated in the press and harshly dealt with. The nail in the coffin for the bribe theory is the PPP won the election held by the junta. No bribes. Thaksin wins because people like him (just ask a few). Here is another analogy: people always said if the US never really made it to the moon, cold war Russia would have been the first to point it out to the world but they didn't because they knew the truth because their technology watched it. Similarly, the junta would be the ones to tell us bribes were used to win elections, but again they didn't because they knew the truth. The junta instead told us Thaksin won because too many voters are dumb.

As for myself, I am not interested in being either pro or anti Thaksin. I am interested in the truth which gets distorted from both sides just like politics anywhere else. I personally see no problem with Thaksin benefitting from whatever he was legally entitled to. For instance, I have seen nothing to suggest the tax free business sale to Singapore, which his adversaries used to fuel their fire, was anything but legal.

A little background not everyone may know about. Thaksin was an Air Force pilot, obtained a PhD in the US, worked for the police force, and became a businessman where after many failures eventually became one of the richest men in Thailand before he ran for office. He never forgot his simple beginnings and the billionaire sent his daughter to work at McDonalds. He was voted in the top job out of desperation for his business skills and inherited the collapsed economy floundering in the hands of his predecessors. He brought a non-political slant to the table and whenever there was a problem, you could be sure there would be instant action rather than just talk. Some of his innovative plans failed, some worked. However, it is indisputable that Thaksin led the economy to the highest growth rates in Asia in many years and that the stock market flourished during his terms. He made it his mission to get the biggest white elephant project (the new airport in the works for 40 years) to fruition, to the point of camping outside to make sure everyone was working hard. One of his lasting legacies to us is he gave us Air Asia and the era of budget air travel that didn't exist before. Another legacy is the stupid alcohol prohibition during parts of every day and a dozen other annoying nightlife crackdowns.

[Snick]

The fact that vote buying occurs and that it often occurs at the village level, with the village headman paid for ensuring the whole village votes one way, is well established.

As for facts, two PPP MPs were disqualified earlier this month for vote buying in the last election. And its a fair guess they are not the only ones doing this.

The Thaksin question is not black and white. He has helped the rural poor and is very popular there, he has also enriched himself immensely and overseen the TRT party becoming a kind of centralized bribe extractor where any major projects/business needed to pay them off. He also mismanaged the Southern problems and made a bad situation must worse.

You correctly focus on Thaksin, but keep in mind his public comments that he is 'out of politics', not involved in the PPP, and that the current government is not a proxy for him.

[TTChang]

(jadeite @ Jun. 22 2008,17:29) [....... That is a fairytale for people who can't come to terms with the fact he is so beloved by countless millions. .....What makes the 500 baht bribe so ludicrous is as far as I have seen no information exists about it outside the little heads of a few farang Thaksin haters.   The tiniest incidents are instantly circulated in the press and harshly dealt with. .....
As for myself, I am not interested in being either pro or anti Thaksin. I am interested in the truth

  -   Just shows how polarised the thinking has become, even among farangs.  I always value Jadeite's contributions to this forum, but  "That was a party political broadcast on behalf of the PPP"

I don't accept that hype about TS being 'loved by countless millions'.  Get a grip, man ... that only applies to the King.  Who hopefully can still bring some influence and sanity to bear.   But things don't look very hopeful.

I would say that if your PM alters the tax rules in advance to suit his own multi-billion baht personal situation, after (for example) cosying up to Myanmar to get a monopoly mobile contract for the company your family own, there are reasonable grounds for challenging his integrity.  Hardly any examples of TS being corrupt or doing anything questionable or illegal ? .  A couple of books I've read suggest otherwise, but this is Thailand (and inevitably they were written by Thaksin-haters, I suppose you will say).  

Just to be sure, the government of the day want to amend the clauses of the constitution that are key to getting TS acquitted (or him not even having to face his outstanding criminal charges).   Easier to demonstrate his innocence that way, perhaps?     I do agree that TS was the most dynamic leader seen for some time.  A bit like he is the most dynamic Man City Chairman for a long time       And you could very reasonably argue that a successful leader deserves to "take" a slice of the wealth he helps to generate   ...   a profit-sharing scheme.

Nevertheless, this IS a (sort of) democratically elected government (with a lot of warts) and I can't see that getting that government to run another election is going to do anything for this wonderful country or its people.   TS relies on the stars for guidance, and the conjunction of Mars & Saturn is obviously of great concern to us all.  But it all gets better by August 8 ....  when  I think Leo in Uranus is recommended    

Anyway, as Snick says, we can be reassured TS is no longer interested in politics ...   just in making money  

[mardhi]

The crux of Thailand's problem remain with undue influence and poor education standards. Those that can afford, send their kids abroad for schooling, those that are middle class whine about it, those that are poor are more concerned with how they can get food on their plate. Thats the crux and Thaksin played up to that with amazing ability, but dont think for a moment he was poor - he was not, he comes from one of the wealthiest families in Chiang Mai. Sure he made himself a lot richer by being in the right place at the right time with mobile phones. No issue with that, but he unfortunately in the eyes of many cannot stop himself from taking more and possibly being required to 'help' others who helped him into that position. Thats the cultural position in Thailand - someone helps you and you have to help them in return.

Without a doubt though, he did some very good things for Thailand - the health care system was very smart if totally underfunded and thought out - but then the poor guy cant do eveything - the civil service actually had to set it up and there the fault lies as it was not properly planned for or administered. Its even worse now that its totally free - it used to cost 30 baht which had the effect of putting off the most trivial visits - now its free and its even more over burdened than before. The village funds were a neat idea of buying support legally - give each village a 1,000,000b loan. Yes a loan, not a grant. Nobody thought "hey we have to use this wisely as we have to pay it back in 3 years times" - the idea was to buy equipment to help them make more effective use of land for agriculture. The reality is that many just went and bought mobile phones. Virtually nobody thought anything about having to repay the loan. So they have not.

Dont forget though that the average poor Thai is not really paying for this - they pay no tax anyway - they are in a no cost situation. The people who are miffed are the middle classes and the academics who see the rich getting richer and little else filtering down to them or the poor. They are tending to be the one's who have highlighted how bad this situation is and how the current situation is where it is now. The People in Issan for the most part still love him - after all, nobody has EVER done anything for them, he was the first, and he had a very clever marketing machine in place which rolled in all the people of influence in the provinces in the North East. TRT had no support in the South, thats Democrat territory but make no mistake the average North East Thai has a strong distrust of any Southern Thai and thus the scenario was not too hard to see being played out once you understand how he garnered the support of the traditional NE local parties who were too small and unorganised to achieve anything in their own right. The people in BKK WANTED him to do well, but became disillusioned very quickly when they realised for all the PR machine, he was not interested in really helping them. Hence in last 2 elections his share of BKK vote has slipped considerably (by that I also include PPP last time around).

Politics is not simple anywhere - and way way less so in Thailand - you just get a headache trying to understand it.

Better to drink beer and look at LB website's IMHO.

Cheers
Mardhi

[PigDogg]

(jadeite @ Jun. 22 2008,02:29) I am interested in the truth which gets distorted from both sides just like politics anywhere else.

Most people are more interested in promoting their own beliefs than searching for the truth.

For example most Democrats believed that Gore was the rightful winner in Florida in the 2000 election while most Republicans believe it was GWB.

And the five changs on the Supreme Court side with Bush while the four jackasses side with Gore. How objective is that?