Bird flu hn51v

[Tomcat]

The WHO said last week that it estimates it will take between 1.4 to two billion$ to prepare for a pandemic.....they have teams of scientists who know the score and if you care to go to one of there meetings you will hear some scary truths.
Two billion dollars is nothing compared to what a pandemic will cause.

In fact the worst case scenario is that Billions could in fact die. My colleague will get me the actual parameters of a pandemic from the WHO and ill post it.

Also poor countries need assistance which will be hard to come by but .The only way to prevent it is to destroy the livestock in Vietnam , and other poorholes. Thailand actually has a good record now in being vigilant and sets a good example.

The HSBC would not be spending millions and millions on contingentcy if it did not matter. Nor would ROSHE be forced to release the patent on TAMIFLU if this was not serious

I am not actually a betting man these days and obviously as the weeks go on it will depend on whether the WHO gets some money and poor countries are helped as to whether the shit hits the fan. Anyway as you need the parameters of pandemic we will have to wait a couple of days.


Anyway i would hope that you would win of course as millions would be killed. If i won then i would also loose as the odds are that i would be killed by the first wave and would not be around to collect.

[allstar88]

were doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!        

[BAM]

The 5 in H5N1 what makes it dangerous. It stands for hemagglutinin type 5. All the human Flu viruses from the past and present fall under the hemagglutinin type 1, 2, and 3. Some of these in the past when first introduced were deadly in their day like...
H1N1 Spanish flu
H2N2  Asian Flu
H3N2  Hong Kong Flu
Since all our human Flu's out there are hemagglutinin type 1, 2, and 3 we all have some form of immunity to them. We still do sometimes get sick from the latest H1,2,3 variant however your immune system most of the time will know how to deal with it... we as humans have evolved and adapted over time... however H5N1 is different.. it€™s not part of what we're use to.... no one on Earth will have any immunity to it and once it evolves into a human strain and it will spread quickly. A vaccine could be and will be developed but this can't happen until the human to human strain appears. So there will be an all of a sudden rash of infections once it does surface where ever and you can only hope you€™re not in an infected area when that happens.

The bad news is there are other known bird viruses that could also cross species.

H7N7, H9N2, H7N2, H7N3.

It€™s just part of nature so sit back and relax and enjoy the ladyboys.

[Tomcat]

Yes it is correct that the TAMIFLU is just an Anti-Viral drug but its better that taking an asprin rather than wait for the Vaccine to arrive. Actually theres a better drug that Tamiflu called RZL1 (shorthand i think) which i hope to get a course .

The WHO has now said that it is inevitable that the Virus will mutate and there estimate for UK deaths is 50K to 750K.
So the lower Pandemic limit would be 50K dead.

British Airway s amongst others are this weekend loading 800 courses of Tamiflu on each aircraft. Its now a race amongst Companies to get there hands on the drugs for all there worth.

I were any member here visiting Thailand i would buy a course or Tamiflu as it should be available soon and cheaper.

TC

[BAM]

I always pay a visit to my Travel Doc before each trip. He€™s an Epidemiologist and an expert on Asia. I€™m going to ask him for a Tamiflu Rx this time.

[rxpharm]

Yes it is correct that the TAMIFLU is just an Anti-Viral drug but its better that taking an asprin rather than wait for the Vaccine to arrive. Actually theres a better drug that Tamiflu called RZL1 (shorthand i think) which i hope to get a course .

TC

TC, I think you mean zanamivir (Relenza), which is an inhaled antiviral medication. It seems this may be more effective than Tamiflu. By the way, China has the permission to produce a generic version of Tamiflu, so they will soon be pumping it out for their own population.

The ironic thing is Tamiflu may not be effective for whatever strain of Asian Bird Flu triggers the pandemic.

This is the link for the Relenza site:

Relenza

Suggest that everyone have a read of the two links I posted. While 40 - 50 million represent less than 1% of the world's population, I certainly do not want to be one of those less than 1% when it happens.

[Tomcat]

Your correct Rxpharm, i could not remember the name so i guessed a shorthand . At least i got three words correct.
ha ha!

Also Thailand has permission to make Tamiflu under the Roche patent release as well as India.

There s going to be some big bucks made out of trading the drugs thats for sure. I wouldnt mind a slice of the action myself.  Food for thought.........

Well probably be the only two guys posting soon........


TC

[Guest]

I hate to be cynical, but yes, of course anyone in the medical or biomed or drug sector will exagerate the prognosis in order to get money pumped into their research.

Duh.

I still say all the estimates are completely overblown.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Guest]

LB's&GG's are chickens?They carry bird flu too?OMG!!!What will i do now in Thailand?

[Tomcat]

I still say all the estimates are completely overblown.

Well I give you the lower estimate for the UK of 50,000 dead.
That comes from the World Health Organization that has 110 special Flu units stationed in 84 countries. serious stuff...

So therefore they must be the best placed to comment . Actually i think is was them that forced ROCHE to release the patent on TAMIFLU.

So if Grunyen does not believe the WHO then who does he believe? The biggest enemy of a Pandemic would be complacency. My basic stance is that the Virus will mutate eventually and i cannot find one scientist that deos not agree.


TC

[BAM]

Just think of a scenario played out like this.... This is Science Fiction€¦. For today!

A boy in a Vietnam Village becomes sick after attending to the families chickens. His sister decides to go to town later that same day to make some money to help the family. What no one knows is she's the first human on Earth to be infected with a now mutated strain of H5N1. She was infected from her brother who was infected by a chicken.

She arrives in town that night and goes to a local bar she sometimes works in. Later that night a British Tourist named Nigel comes into the bar. Nigel's flight to Bangkok is in 4 hours and he's looking for a quick fuck before his flight. Nigel eye's a cute girl in the bar and buys her a drink........... They head to a ST hotel next door. Nigel is her 5th customer that night she infects.

Nigel boards his flight to Bangkok. Half way into the flight he begins to sneeze... the passengers around him on the plane all become infected. The stewardess becomes infected... and everyone who used the lavatory after Nigel sneezed on everything in there becomes infected. The flight lands at BKK and everyone departs... some of the infected passengers board other connecting flights. Nigel heads to his hotel near Nana Plaza. As he enters the hotel he sneezes on the door handle. This will alone infect 45 people. He walks up to the front desk and again sneezes... 76 people will touch this counter. The Bell Boy brings his bags up to his room... he gives him a 100 baht tip and H5N1.
Nigel has a quick shower and heads over to Nana Plaza... he's greeted by a girl he knows from before... she gives him a big kiss... and he gives her something else. She will later that night pass the infection on to 28 people. Nigel visits 4 different bars and infects 103 people that night that come in contact with what he's touched and sneezed on. Nigel is highly infectious at this point but is unaware of what is going on within him... he's feeling run down and head back to his hotel for the night, alone.

Many of the people that were infected in the path set out by Nigel are now onboard flights. One of them just landed in New York City... another in Sydney... another in London....Germany... France..... It's too late now to stop it.... in 48 hours something that started in a small Vietnam Village has made it's way round the world.... It's now a Global Pandemic.

[Tomcat]

yes, nicely put Bam, i agree with what you say completely.

This is one scenario that reflects what they call the Kevin Bacon Syndrome/game, that most people on the planet can be connected by a network of just 6 people. HN51 incubates in around 24 hours , not very long to get the drugs down your throat.


On a less serious level...
Its mostly by touch that flu is spread . So wash your hands guys after you have pulled your dick out of that chickens arse.
Its not finger licking good

Or try fucking warthogs.....i believe that they swing both ways... ....


TC

[Guest]

I was just remined of this in another thread, so I thought I'd come see when this was all started.

So it's been a year and a half since TomCat said the sky was falling in the form of bird flu. How many of those 50,000 dead in the UK so far?

Anyone still worried about the bird flu? I can't even remember the last time I heard it mentioned.

[ramboz]

Just don't eat no She-Can !!

DANNO

[katoeylover]

Another "State of Fear" argument, I think, bring on global warming!!!