The US Dollar sucks!

[Guest]

Being a US citizen and a frequent overseas traveler I can't help but get disgusted on how bad the USD is doing against the rest of the world€™s currency. What drive me nuts is that the US economy has actually been doing very well even with all the shit we got ourselves into in the Middle East. I cringe every time I look at Yahoo Finance. For god€™s sake even the Philippine Peso is kicking our ass.

A liberal friend of mine (who I tend to discount his comments most of the time) made an interesting observation: The world hates GWB therefore the confidence in the USD weakens. I€™m inclined to believe him.

I€™m stopping off in LoS in a few days after spending 4 shitty days in the Middle East and can€™t help but think how many Heinekens I will have to do without (my flaccid attempt at humor).

On this note: I heard Thailand actually has two exchange rates - one that the world banks exchange at and one that is offered at the exchange houses. He told me that you can actually get a better rate in the exchange houses. The reason for this difference has something to do with the Thai government trying to control its currency while still trying to accommodate tourist in-country. Any expats care to comment?

RW

[katoeylover]

It hit 34bt:$1 last week, and there doesnt seem to be a rational reason why itis so strong.

Lots of exporters are hurting as is the domestic tourist market.

Makes you wonder...

[Snick]

There are two exchange rates, because of currency controls. You get the better rate in Thailand 34 Baht per dollar, vs. the overseas rate which is around 32 Baht per dollar.

Currencies fluctuations are one of the hardest things to map. But in the dollars case, its weak because we borrow a lot of money. All those home loans in USA are actually financed by the Chinese ( who own 1 trillion $ in USA debt ), and others.

The Baht case is actually very strange, the Baht is strong because the Thai economy is weak (I said this was strange). Specifically Thai consumers are not buying anything, BUT Thai exporters are selling a lot. This makes the currency trade very one way ( dollars come into Thailand, but don't leave ).

If the economy improves next year, which it should, the Baht will weaken against most currencies (but the dollar may weaken also).

[azza33]

Cant say i am too displeased....

couple of years back i was getting US45c for an aussie dollar
now i am get US86c for the aussie dollar



one man gain is another mans loss

or perhaps another one of thinking

We are now getting more bang for our buck

AND about time i say!!!

[moe666]

Well in the end thank GWB and the republican party since they donot want to pay for their little war in Iraq with taxes they are borrowing billions from the chinese, japanese, and who ever has big bucks to invest.
Instead of tax and spend it is spend and borrow, it will only get worse when the bill comes due higher interest rates and a weaker dollar.

At present there is a lot of foreign money pouring into thailand that is being invested into the Thai stock market this is one of the factors that is causing the Thai baht to increase in value.

keep praying for another asian blow out like in 1997.

[stogie bear]

Well, I'm no expert but another crash is unlikely as the cash feuling the current market in Thailand is domestic rather than foriegn as was the case ten years ago.

[mardhi]

Personally I believe in the not too distant future (and certainly in our lifetimes), the Chinese will pull the rug on the US economy totally and basically wipe it out - the Chinese are not ready yet knowledge wise, but I suspect we will see it within our lifetime. Dont forget, they play a long game - running into hundreds of years is not uncommon. The amount of debt they hold + the amount of US $ reserves could lead to a very nasty collapse.

Cheers
Mardhi

[mardhi]

(Snick @ Jul. 08 2007,08:46) This makes the currency trade very one way ( dollars come into Thailand, but don't leave ).

My totally anecdotal evidence and without much economics knowledge would def support that view - the Thai's US$ reserves (and other currencies) are at all time highs and have been for the last 2-3 years based on what I have read (but as I say, I dont study it or claim to understand it greatly, so its a laymans opinion).

The crux for the Thai's is that domestic demand is rapidly slowing down - just look at how many fewer cars are rolling out of the showrooms - thats always a good indicator and especially at the higher end, where they tend to see and understand whats happening. You still see lots of 'financed' Toyota pick-ups on red plates, but not so many Benz and BMW's recently.

Cheers
Mardhi

[katoeylover]

Great for UK importers, getting 2:1 now, which adds 10% to the gross margin!! yippeee!

[Ladyboy_Loser!]

The end or in this case the bottom for the U.S. dollar is not in sight. Thanks to the politicians of both partys the U.S. economy is a house of cards that is on shaky grounds. With the over 20 million "baby boomers" getting ready to retire in the next ten years the social security and medicare entitlement programs will not have enough money to cover this. Nothing is being done and the rest of the big economic giants in the world know this. Enjoy the ride for now boys cause' within the year the dollar will drop to below 30 Baht and your holiday to Thailand will cost you a lot more. For us here in LOS on U.S. dollar money we are going to have to do something that I never imagined I would have to do here and that is live on a budget. Not mind you a budget that inhibits my current lifestyle but one takes into account my spending for big ticket items. Thank God I bought my home and my pickup when the Baht was still at 40 to the U.S. dollar.

[Guest]

If there was logic, it would be predictable, and we could all be rich.

That's why there is no logic.

[stogie bear]

Thank God I bought my home and my pickup when the Baht was still at 40 to the U.S. dollar.

Erm... just to clarify - when was the Dollar worth 40 Baht?

[katoeylover]

(stogie bear @ Jul. 09 2007,17:34) Erm... just to clarify - when was the Dollar worth 40 Baht?

2 years ago the dollar was trading at 41bt/$

http://www.x-rates.com/cgi-bin/hlookup.cgi

2005-06-27 June 27, Monday 41.1 THB
2005-06-28 June 28, Tuesday 41.19 THB
2005-06-29 June 29, Wednesday 41.29 THB
2005-06-30 June 30, Thursday 41.33 THB
2005-07-01 July 01, Friday 41.38 THB

[allstar88]

but is a weak dollar not good for exports ?

[moe666]

Nor is a weak dollar good for my holidays. We could see the baht fall if the folks buying Thai stocks take their profits and run. BOT says the strong baht is being caused by the inflow of foreign money into the stock market.